danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Cutouts from the 200mb- 38000 foot level winds.
Left photo is 18Z @pm EDT Today and right photo is 6 hours earlier.
Quite a few changes in 6 hours.
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LoisCane
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Explain the flight level wind maps for all of us please...
Note they are getting tons of data, especially from the JET so tomorrow's models (or late tonight?) should be the best yet.
A real consolidation around a center is going on. Shape is rounder, signs of outflow and if you cover the ULL on your screen and just look at Dolly (the ULL is distracting) you get a real feel for where she is at.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Great radar, this loop is good... you can see blow ups.
Looking forward to more accuracy in the 11pm discussion and advisory.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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craigm
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When in doubt break the 85ghz out. See attached file Excuse me - in this case it was 89 ghz - more complete pass
What I see here peering through the crap is possibly two areas that could consolidate as the center. The first one is around 20.2N;82.5W the other at 20N; 80W Dark blues are low clouds that return lower brightness temps that you would expect at or near the center of a storm - no water particles to reflect.. Similar spectrum as land. This image is 5 hours old. The fix at 5:00 Pm was 18.9N 85.0 west. So I'm placing the center N and E of that fix.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Mon Jul 21 2008 12:04 AM)
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okihabu
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I agree with you craig, I just looked at the radar again and it kinda reminds me what charlie did in 04. Dolly looks like she jumped right a little. If that high stays in the north middle of the gulf then its either a hard left or hard right. The northern most bands sorta go N then E. made me leave thats why I say she jumps right.
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Chuck Good
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LoisCane
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Interesting loop. Dark spot forming in the middle of the pink... would laugh it off but it's in dead center of the strongest convection.
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Gulf/IR/atl_ir1_loop.gif
This storm took no time ramping up when the ULL weakened and makes me wonder what it will do over warm water in the GOM and think it will just nick the tip of the Yucatan at this rate though not sure... can't wait til 11 to read discussion and get some clarity on what is really going on.
note you can see the high aloft in the GOM on a few of the floaters now
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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There is no need to get folks alarmed at this juncture. In 2004 the synoptic situation was quite different. An unusually strong late season cold front and upper trough was plowing through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. That was the mechanism that captured and turned it to the northeast. No such pattern exists tonight and no hard turns in either direction are either likely or anticipated.
ED
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craigm
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Quote:
I agree with you craig, I just looked at the radar again and it kinda reminds me what charlie did in 04. Dolly looks like she jumped right a little. If that high stays in the north middle of the gulf then its either a hard left or hard right. The northern most bands sorta go N then E. made me leave thats why I say she jumps right.
So far we have model consensus although the tropical suite is trending northward-- this of course can change. Trust the 3 day cone unless you know about some synoptic bomb that these super computers don't. has a great track record - excuse the pun. Intensity though is a different story. I would definately be dusting my shutters off in Texas.
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Brett Addison
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Is it me or does it seem like the center of Dolly is heading NNW and further north then the 8:00pm advisory? Here is a link to the Cancun radar loop (I think the radar is actually stationed some where in Cuba):[url= http://www.cancunweathertoday.com/radar.php]Cancun radar loop[/url]
Here is a link to the Dvorák which I think shows the center further north and heading more north then forecasted: [url=http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html]Tropical Floater Two [/url]
Any thoughts?
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weathernet
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Actually Craig, I think that by the time you and others read this post, you might agree that rather than a "sucker hole", that a newly forming center may well be at 20.2N and 85.0W. My guess is that the low level center might be sliding under the that has been persisting over the mid level center. Now that the ULL has filled some and certainly moved to the southwest, a significant alignment may be further improving. If in fact I am correct, on what may be a relocated position in the next package, I do not beleive this would be indicative of any major shift in forecast, but perhaps allow the models to better initialize current positon. I beleive the net result will be for an increase in battery and water shipments to the Texas coast, than what previously thought earlier today.
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Hugh
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I don't completely disagree with your logic, weathernet, but I don't agree with it either. I do believe the LLC has been aligning itself with the MLC under the , and as a result, Dolly is going to strengthen fairly rapidly in the near term, I think. I don't think there's any significant net west movement going on with Dolly, though, right now. I think overall it's moving due north, with wobbles either direction of due north.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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weathernet
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Brett, I think we posted at practically the same time. Though I took your link to check out the radar, is does not quite capture what most recent satellite does. I agree with you, in that the overall "appearance" is that of a system moving more NNW, than WNW. That said, I think we may be seeing what may be a newly consolodating center. To be sure though, one need see consistancy in at least a few more pictures. Of course a new recon pass would certainly do the trick too!
Edited by weathernet (Mon Jul 21 2008 02:15 AM)
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Random Chaos
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Weathernet, actually, that position makes sense based on Aircraft Recon.
Just under 2 hours ago, the center fix was 19°20'N 85°15'W. If it's moving NNW as it seems to be on IR and WV loops, that would put it pretty close to the 20.2N 85.0W that you mentioned, though I didn't calculate speed  .
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Hugh
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Quote:
Just under 2 hours ago, the center fix was 19°20'N 85°15'W. If it's moving NNW as it seems to be on IR and WV loops, that would put it pretty close to the 20.2N 85.0W that you mentioned, though I didn't calculate speed
But... still says it's moving NW... is there still a plane in there tonight?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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weatherguy08
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Check out the new models. Basically, the farthest south of the early-cycle models, the GFNI, puts landfall 100 miles south of the US-Mexico border as a 74-knot storm. The farthest north, the CLP5, puts landfall literally on Galveston Island. I think we are going to be dealing with a Texas landfall. The spread in the 00Z early-cycle models is 350 miles, not too bad for three days out! 
Couldn't attach the file (too big), so I uploaded it to my website:
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com/images/00z-21%20early-cycle%20models.png
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Random Chaos
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There is: N43RF a.k.a Miss Piggy. Linky
And recon center fixes, per : Linky
Enjoy!
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weathernet
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Michael ~~~ Hmmm, thats very interesting. I did not know that they had come up with that fix a couple hours ago. With regards to factoring motion, that would seem to indicate practically minimal motion ( at least for the last couple of hours ). Not that I think that the forecast reasoning has changed much on overall forward motion, but if in fact this is the new center that we are seeing, and that Dolly may be really getting its act together this evening, that such a deepening trend might explain little or no motion. As we have noticed on numerous occassions over past history, many a storm undergoing deepening will tend to slow down or even stall temporarily.
If this is truly occuring, than I think we will soon see a WNW to NW resuming of forecasted forward motion, but with a new package adjusting the longer range path accordingly.
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Random Chaos
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Actually, there is motion.
Recall that 1 degree at the equator is 60nm. Therefore, the distance required to take it from the recon fix the the center you estimated (45' W, 40' N) would be 60nm in two hours; that's 30nm/hr, or quite a bit faster than recon has seen it been moving. Although it's possible the center "skipped" under the convective core instead of actually moving normally.
Remember, these are all hypothetical positions, there is no recon data or anything official stating that it's at the position we're talking about. We only know the origin from recon, not it's present position.
(These estimates were done in my head, so don't quote me!)
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Jul 21 2008 02:34 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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It indeed does look like a center relocation is taking place. Winds at Cozumel are out of the east northeast and rather light - perhaps influenced by the remnant low level center now well to the west southwest of the reforming center. The SLP at Cozumel has leveled off over the past four hours. A small but well defined appears to be forming over the earlier mid-level vortex. At 02Z I can roughly place a center at 20.7N 85.1W that is moving slowly to the northwest toward the Yucatan channel - around the northeastern perimeter of the upper level low to the southwest - but I've been fooled before by developing systems - particularly in this area. Sure seems like a stronger system with a northward position adjustment is in order.
ED
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Jul 21 2008 04:19 AM)
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Hugh
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Hey Ed... we've seen it before, so I have to ask... is it possible that what we're seeing is a period of potentially rapid intensification? Dolly has appeared to develop a pinhole eye on and off this evening, which for a 45mph tropical storm, is unheard of to my knowledge.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Freezey
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earlier I had seen someone mention the high could possibly weaken. If so when and how much of an effect would it exactly have of Dolly?
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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