Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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Hmm im thinking shear? Already well it could be a stair step right now as it comes west it gets sheared, but when it goes north with it it flares up. i belive and where such systems, that fought the shear and apeeared to loose but really just kept puslsating along north of the islands,andrew was symilar but does not count becuse he was alaways a tropical storm through the shear . I will have to sea with my eye's later tonight and tommorow morning what kinda system this wants to be.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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circulation is very visible tonight and convection is flaring up dead center
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
i think its time to name the baby and get some good model forecasts before the baby grows up fast in the bahamas
think it's coming together
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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It's still pretty broad in terms of the convection, which isn't strong away from the "LLC" (if there is one).
Cloud tops appeared to peak about 2 hours ago, and are now declining a bit. I doubt that the will upgrade it overnight based upon the current satellite and the recon info from today, but tomorrow's recon may very well find Fay if convection can build over the circulation.
Update: I just read where the next recon is scheduled to be in the system at 2am ET. If this is accurate, we may very well wake up to a named storm after all.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Aug 13 2008 02:34 AM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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The SE shear that had been impacting the broad circulation of 92L appears to have weakened considerably in the last 6 hours. The 10 to 15 kt shear vectors have reduce uniformly to around 5 kts.
There is a clear attempt at a "coring" of rotation, and there is even a small persistent cluster of deep convection near this perceived axis of rotation.
Some tropical models, such as the , are quite robust with intensity out in time. In fact, the 18Z run ramps up 92L all the way to 121kts at 120 hours, in the Bahamas! This can't be an official call; however, I do not really see any big mitigators to development looking forward, as the TW (or depression) moves WNW.
As far as 93L goes, the water temperatures where this TW(s) is, are marginal actually... That combined with a touch of SAL contamination is probably why a clear and vigorous rotation is unable to find convection. It may just be a matter of time.
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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It seems odd to me that, even though shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished some with 92L, it otherwise certainly looks to have a clear circulation, it is trying to consolidate and gets its act together, that has moved it from a high probability of development to a moderate probability. 
I think if convection can continue to fire and sustains over the "center" we will have atleast a TD by morning if not a storm.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Chance for it being a TD by 5am is less than 10%, its fighting dry air and probably will take 24-48hrs and past 60W to be in any kind of enviroment to sustain convection.
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 13 2008 04:55 PM)
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MikeC
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Normally you look for a variety of factors looking to see if a depression has formed or not. In this case the wave east of the islands (92L) is still not matching enough for this, and probably won't today. Mostly the mention of it on the main page is a way to say hey there's something that could happen next week, so you may want to check over the weekend to see if it has developed or not. I do not want it to come anywhere near us, developed or not.
Recon, numbers, satellite imagery and radar if you have it are some of the better ways to determine if it has formed or not (usually in that order). Recon hasn't found anything (and it's unusual recon goes this far east) the numbers never reached around 2.0 and more are reasons it isn't a depression. And water vapor satellite along with visual are some of the better ways that I look for.
Right now with 92L, it doesn't look all that good. It just shows shearing and disorganized system at present, and it probably won't have a better shot at organization until if/when it gets north of the islands if it lasts that long.
Usually I"ll just read the 's data and look at the raw images/data myself before updating the main page, and before i read anyone else's take on the system too. Only after posting an update will I go check other opinions and then make notes on it after that.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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92L looks terrible this morning in infra red although convection does appear to be making a come back in the north and west quadrants. Still has some SAL to fight through past 60W as posted above.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html
There is plenty of energy at the surface so it looks like we are in wait and see mode for a couple days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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As MIke pointed out this a.m., 92L remains just that - a dissorganized weak low. My own observation of visible and RGB satellite this morning seems to indicate a week surface circulation around 17N and 57W, but one not co-located with what appears to be a mid level rotation more to the east ( and north a bit ), around 18N & 54W. Water vapor indicates dry air on the systems west side.
Seems to be a distinct 20-30kt. southerly jet shearing the system. Whether this is part of a large broad closed ULL in the N.E. Carib., or simply a feature, 200mb charts do not indicate much change in the upper air until possibly 42 hours from now.
Some subtle model tendancies are becoming more evident, but will save such thoughts for the Forecast Lounge.
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ftlaudbob
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I keep thinking of 2005 when we had systems like 92l.They would flare up then die down flare up and die down,all the while moving west,then when they got closer to the mainland they would get their act together rather quickly.So we still need to watch 92l closely,because what ever may come of it is moving in our general direction.And it looks to me like if it can hang on for a couple more days,the conditions around this system should improve.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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I see a center forming at 17n 56w and there has been an impressive burst of convection in this area. Perhaps we are witnessing yet another center reformation. Lets see, however, if this burst fizzles like all the previous ones. This is very similar to all those storms in 2005 that were just about written off only to organize in a flash and then the bottom drops out. Big difference is this year there is not quite the anomalies in the ocean warmth dept.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Quote:
I see a center forming at 17n 56w and there has been an impressive burst of convection in this area. Perhaps we are witnessing yet another center reformation. Lets see, however, if this burst fizzles like all the previous ones. This is very similar to all those storms in 2005 that were just about written off only to organize in a flash and then the bottom drops out. Big difference is this year there is not quite the anomalies in the ocean warmth dept.
I would not say there is a BIG difference in the SSTs as compared to 2005.The SSTs get pretty warm as it moves west.This latest flare up should in the very least keep it alive for a while,but I still think we are a couple of days away from real organization.I am getting a little more concerned that this system is turning into a "fighter",I don't like those.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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The elongated center of 92L is just NW of the T-Storm Convection....you can clearly see the shear over 92Ls position. If the center was a couple degrees east it would be in alot better shear zone/env. I put the position or (Trough)near 17-18N 58W as off 11am eastern.
The current flare up is due to daytime interaction with the upper low to its west. I would want to see convection at night and persistance and the LLC consolidate more. Dry Air is still inplace but eroding. Current threat right now is the shear axis of 15-20kts while it drops to under 10kts just a couple dg east of there.
(Edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 15 2008 01:55 AM)
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Looking on the latest visible and water vapour loops of 92L it appears that a big glob of convection has fired up over one of the circulation centers (which btw there appears to be multipule circulation points, one appearing within the heaviest portion of convection and another one on the SW edge of the convection).
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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So far on the 12Z runs...,models are still showing at least a tropical storm by this weekend near 21N and 70W, some stronger but I would like to see the and HRW runs. Still we all need patience as right now its trying to form a ridge in the upper levels over it to support growth. The system will slowly get better organized as the dry air fades away and better the upper ridging over it strengthens over the next 12-24hrs. Until then, this will probably pulse with convection and we need persistance.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Things were looking more bullish on 92L yesterday, I think. The shear over the system is hindering consistent convective activity, and all that is in the midst of the SAL surrounding it.
NHC is less optimistic than yesterday, when publishe reports put it at 50% for development and posted the alert. Today it is 20-50%.
My concern is this will pulse late in the journey across and the relative weakness of the system will keep it from turning NW before the Bahamas, which will create a short track system that Florida must deal with.
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doug
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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It has a "rounder" look tonight again, convection flaring up strongly. One more strong bout with shear and then it has a better environment for development.
High is building in above it and the real piece of the puzzle as to what it does once it has a name is the strong frontal system pulling down from Canada this week/end. Over and over this summer we have storms come down on the same basic trajectory. Last night there were tornado warnings in Alabama, tonight Northern Florida. JAX had strong weather.. This is going to set up a scenario and a lot will depend on where and when this storm is and where that low is coming down towards Florida that shows what direction they race towards each other.
Timing is everything here. And, while it doesn't look like much tonight it will look better soon enough and we shouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security because this is calling for close in development much like Jeanne who didn't get her act together until she had moved into a closer in area vs mid-Atlantic.
The models are consistent and this storm has consistently followed the models.. something to remember while looking at a somewhat poor satellite presentation.
Across Florida, the Straits or paralleling the coast is too far away to predict.. it's at least 5 to 6 days away.
Puts the under the gun to get good info on this storm. Imagine the Gulfstream Jet will go out as soon as they have a verified storm.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Central Florida
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I think tonight is as good as 92L has looked in several days with inflow starting to develop. This seems to me to coincide with what early models had depicted. A weaker system developing as it moved closer in to the islands and the Bahamas.
If 92L does not die again tonight, it will get very interesting tomorrow.
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Jara
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I am curious what the NOAA plane may find tonight... most missions today and tonight were cancelled, but the "THE P3 RESEARCH MISSION FOR 14/06Z WILL GO AS SCHEDULED."
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43
A. 14/0600Z
B. NOAA3 05DDA CYCLONE
C. 14/0300Z
D. 20.0N 58.0W
E. 14/0430Z TO 14/0930Z
F. SFC TO 14,000 FT
NOTE* the SFC to 14,000 FT... i think they be studying the dry air and dust in the surrounding enviroment of 92L which will be interesting to see what they find. Looks like take off is in a few hours. Will see what Ms. Piggy finds.
from today's POD...
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.
HRD is really wanting to get some data!!! That's good..
**NOAA 42 landed in Barbados around 18:49:00Z, yesterday the 12th**
(Edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 15 2008 03:37 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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see attached image to go with the following..
been watching NOAA3 fly and looking at IR shortwave... i thought the plane went through the old center ((i mean above)... the surface center thats about to enter the islands... which i think was around 17N 61W (which can be seen HERE )
but then about 30 mins ago.. recon was on the sw side of the convection and went across an area at 4,385 meters (~ 14,386 feet) at around 17.47N 59.48W and the winds changed almost 180 degrees and were less then 5mph at one point... almost like they flew through a small mid level low.. in the attached image.. its where the white bars are at. notice the wind shift?
and as i write, NOAA43 just went directly through that convection we see on sats... a BUMPY ride for sure!
the RED L is the 00Z location from models
**UPDATE... Flying through that blob.. pressure around 1009mb
Time: 05:06:30Z Coordinates:17.72N 58.85W
*SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
**Denotes suspect data***
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 14 2008 05:34 AM)
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