berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Can you imagine what all those folks down where Hanna are thinking? They've been toyed with for days and look who's coming to dinner in a few days? How many tropical cyclones does that make for them this year? Mike's right; it's too early. If there's good news it's Hanna has stirred up the water down there pretty good and that should cool the SSTs in the area. If Ike continues to be a major hurricane expect a number of flights into the enviroment so the models will be given a better opportunity to get a handle on Ike's future track. I'm not going to speculate where Ike's going and how strong the upper ridge(s) are progged to be Day 5 and Day 6. It's a damn shame Hanna can't hang around for another day and share a fujiwara for an evening.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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I have a sneaking suspicion that the NOAA Gulfstream Jet that's being flown in tonight is more for the sake of the global models. So they can get a better handle on what Ike is gonna do. Because before today the already expressed high confidence in Hannah's track. I think they're trying to nail down the environment Ike is coming into before they put a point on a landfall location.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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We need some METS in here!Sorry for the short post but where the heck are the METS?We need some input for Ike.
As time permits they will chime in...
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Sep 04 2008 06:26 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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There really isnt much to say, Hanna is on a path towards Myrtle Beach-Cape lookout and will probably be a weak cat 1. As for IKE, we have a couple days before we can really talk about any landfall if any in the U.S. BTW the IV Plane was for Hannas path and not for IKE. They will sample the ridge in a couple days for him!
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Clark
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We need some METS in here!Sorry for the short post but where the heck are the METS?We need some input for Ike.
Truly, there's not much to be said. Hanna has started to lift out, partially in response to the steering flow at upper levels sending it that way and partially in response to the center reforming near the deep convection. As this happens, the subtropical ridge should build in ahead of Ike, steering it to the WSW in a day or two. It appears that Hanna will end up too far away to capture Ike and recurve it between the US and Bermuda, leaving open the question of where Ike goes in the next 5-7 days. It's too early to speculate about anything at those ranges given the inherent errors and uncertainties that grow at those longer time ranges, but I will note that the forecast pattern at this time does not look terribly conducive for continued westward movement beyond then. Everyone from Cuba and Hispaniola to New England need to watch Ike through the weekend -- what is seemingly certain is that we will have a major (or nearly so) hurricane on our hands threatening land masses through that time period.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Clark
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I have a thought concerning Hanna. If the storm accelerates to the NNE as it is predicted to do once hitting or brushing by North Carolina, then won't it's fast forward momentum help to increase the impact of winds on the eastern side of the storm? Let's say that the storm, for example, makes a landfall at Conneticut, Rhode Island, or long island. If the storm is, as forecasted to be, having winds of 60 mph, with a movement speed of 30 or so mph, then won't the right side of the storm have hurricane force winds in the strong Cat 1 category? It's something to think about, at least, that a large area of New England could be impacted with hurricane force winds even though the storm would be of Tropical Storm strength.
The tends to forecast for the maximum winds found anywhere within the storm when motion effects are taken into account. The strongest winds will be found east of the center -- recurving storms tend to have a significant right-of-track wind field asymmetry with strong winds covering a very large area -- and could well rake New England with significant impacts. But, it's not an additive effect; the forecast winds you see already take forward motion into account as best as is possible. (I say "best as is possible" as it is not simply standard wind field + forward motion determining winds; friction and other non-linear factors influence things.)
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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cieldumort
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Well, the post-eclipse satellite images are starting to come in, and it is looking as if we may see Ike upgraded to or very near Cat 5. The cloud pattern consists of a clear, small, circular eye surrounded by a thick, banding ring of very cold cloud tops.. significantly below -50C and down to -75C. The eye itself is giving off tremendous warmth, by comparison. Raw T numbers out of CIMSS are already running 7.0, and this may have a slightly conservative bias as it does not seem to be honing in on the true center of the cyclone, resulting in a gross misreading of how warm the eye actually is. A new advisory much below 150MPH at this point would not make any sense, baring a highly unlikely rapid weakening phase between now and then.
Track-wise, Ike seems to be following along rather well, and for now, the official cone as of 11PM last night looks to be holding up. The only substantial change I can see coming between 11PM and 5AM will have to do with current and future intensity.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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They decided for 145 mph! It´s a pity to have no recon in there to get some real data (first recon should be tomorrow). The perfect conditions are about to change for Ike. You already see the diminishing outflow in the NW quadrant. Will be vey interesting, how Ike deals with the stronger shear.
And Hanna is really a miracle to me, because of how she has survived this really hostile conditions for quite a long time. Now she is also sucking dry air in her center and even the remote convection to the north is diminishing. But still she has a pressure of 989 hpa and max. flight level winds of 65 kt! For the future I see only chances for weakening, but nearly no chance for strengthening!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Good Morning: The vertical shear mentioned in the 5:00 a.m. discussion concerning IKE appears in the WV as the western side of the envelope is flattening, and occasional indications of a N-S shear is visible. The direction remains WNW, and the center well established in side the core.
Clark's input from several hours ago seems to be born out so far. Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system, but by all appearances now, based on the visible evidence of its effect on the structure of IKE today, it may be pretty strong. If so, based on assumptions implied in the 5:00 a. m. discussion, that would mitigate toward a more westward and southern solution. Lets hope not!
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doug
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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Davenport, FL
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This is an amazing picture.
Atlantic Hurricanes
We are surely fortunate to have all the technology that we have today to let us prepare for these storms. My mom grew up in Wilmington, NC in the 30's and they rarely knew anything until the storm was right on top of them.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system,
What is the best way to observe the high in real time? Water vapor loops? Is there a particular satellite view that would show this as it's happening? I'm growing more and more concerned about Ike, and would like to stay on top of the always-changing situation out there as much as possible.
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Charleston, SC
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Great site with multiple overlaps:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
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Go Boilermakers
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cieldumort
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Once again, Hanna has shed more tropical characteristics and taken back on more subtropical ones, in their place. This change was noted in 's 11AM discussion.
A lot of dry air entrainment continues to hamper redevelopment of a convective core. Maximum winds have likely expanded away from the center again, and it may even be a challenge for recon to find a persistent warm center. They're heading in there now, so we shall see. Given the convective trends around noon, Hanna may be trying to redevelop a core of convection at this time, but again, she is fighting an uphill battle.
Not mentioned in any of the Hanna discussions out of I have read thus far, dry/dusty air is hugging the east coast, from about the coastline out over the Gulf Stream. It might take a while for this to wash out, and it seems reasonable to assume that Hanna may also ingest some more of this, as it exists in such abundance, until it finally mixes out of the region. Unless and until Hanna can create a very moist, protective bubble, she will remain at the mercy of this less-than-ideal environment, and at some point this week she may yet become fully subtropical, assuming she isn't already.
The implications of a largely subtropical storm Hanna vs. tropical storm Hanna suggests that she can remain more offshore, and yet possibly affect a wider area with gale-force winds and perhaps a few hurricane-force wind gusts. It also suggests that it could take her longer than forecast to become a hurricane... maybe too long.. given her likely recurvature that could take much of her circulation over land.
Implications for Ike strike me as mixed. On one hand, I doubt that Hanna has turned up the waters in any very meaningful way should Ike travel over the same area. On the other, circulation into and around Hanna has brought in lots more dry, even dusty air into the region. There's still time for this to mix out, but already Ike is feeling some of the effects of downshearing winds on Hanna's outermost periphery, and it could be just a matter of time until enough of a kink in his armor opens up and lets some of the drier/dustier air in, which could trip him up pretty good.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system,
What is the best way to observe the high in real time? Water vapor loops? Is there a particular satellite view that would show this as it's happening? I'm growing more and more concerned about Ike, and would like to stay on top of the always-changing situation out there as much as possible.
The best tool that combines easy understanding yet comprehensive analysis of the subtropical high (and other atmospheric features) comes from the Univ. of Wisconsin and their Layer Mean Wind Analyses. Pick the appropriate one for the current/forecast storm intensity and see how it has evolved over the past 24 hours. I wouldn't use it for forecasting, though, just for analysis, as many things change on a continual basis. We need intuition and model forecasts to help us with that.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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banks305
Registered User
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These might sound like stupid questions but..
1. Is it possible to have the 3 combine and make 1 big hurricane?
and vice versa..
2. Can a bigger one push another back or even diminish it?
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www.305HipHop.com - South Florida's Premiere Online Source for the Hip Hop Culture
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starwise
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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Pretty cool site .... quite dazzling, with ALL the graphics
for ALL the current storms.
http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/
Stay safe, all ~~~ I'm so grateful I'm not having to plan,
worry and endure these miserable seasons anymore.
Prayers definitely up.
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I try to keep making new mistakes, that's
why I finally had to leave FL after 30 plus
years ~~ Andrew, Charley, Frances, Ivan
and Jeanne.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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It's possible for storms to interact with each other, sometimes they cause shear (strong winds from one direction) that blow apart a storm or hinder it's progress. Sometimes a storm can do a fujiwara sort of dance of sorts.
Some links to read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
http://www.helium.com/items/959858-twin-hurricanes-the-fujiwara-effect-explained
Also, you can have a set up like the Perfect Storm that was written about in the book made into a movie.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Grace
In reality storms often interact in different ways. A lot depends on timing, how fast Hanna moves out and there has been talk that Ike might be driving/pushing Hanna a drop.
Hope this helps.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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1. Is it possible to have the 3 combine and make 1 big hurricane?
The answer is it is possible. It is called the Fujiwhara effect and occurs when cyclonic vorticies get close together. They begin orbiting each other, and eventually merge. However, in the case of hurricanes, this is extremely unlikely to happen: the shear created by one storm is far more likely to rip the other one apart way before the Fujiwhara effect can happen. Further, even if it did happen, the interactions of the outflows and shearing effects would create a substantially weakened vortex, if the vortex even managed to survive. However, this type of effect can be seen when there are multiple vorticies within a single system during development. (thanks Lee-Delray for your post on the 2nd giving the name of this phenomenon)
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and vice versa..
Not possible. In order for a system to divide into two vortexes, it would have to first lose a single center of circulation and essentially become a broad area of low pressure prior to splitting into multiple vortexes. These vortexes would be weak, and would be naturally pulled back together into a single low pressure by the Fujiwhara effect. Any system that managed to split in the first place wouldn't be considered a hurricane anymore, as it would have become too weak to be such a storm, and the low pressure too undefined.
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2. Can a bigger one push another back or even diminish it?
The size of the storm doesn't matter, only the outflow characteristics and the shear created from each storm. This shear can (and often does) diminish nearby storms.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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You can say want you want, but it looks like Ike has improved his outlflow again and this in the face of quite some shear analyzed over it. of CIMSS is up again at 6.4 (125 kt). Will be very intersting to see the data from the first recon missions tomorrow.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Does anyone know why they have taken the tropical forecast points off the overlay at SSD?
Never mind --It just missing from the atlantic wide view.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Thu Sep 04 2008 08:37 PM)
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