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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Hugh]
      #84275 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:10 AM

Sept. - Oct. can be a very difficult time of the year to forecast recurvature on these storms in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf because of their interaction with strengthening mid-latitude systems. Combine that with the fact that we have very minimal data over water, which causes questions in model initialization ... Ike is a storm to keep a close watch on through the next SEVERAL days. The GFS has been quite reliable this season (as noted by others) and it was already suggesting last Tuesday that Ike would move into eastern Cuba around Sunday.

My question is how much will Ike weaken if it moves across/along Cuba? Intensity and timing are still big question marks. Note that the forward speed of Ike is projected to slow down as it enters the Gulf by Wednesday. IF SO, it will be a prime candidate to make a sharp turn to the NE and the FL Gulf coast by Friday, in response to a deep trough forecast to push into the central US. But that's a long way out yet.

This time of the year (esp. late Sep.-early Oct.), we've seen models try to recurve these cyclones over the long term, only for them to continue moving west, south of any mid-latitude influence. While that's not the likely scenario right now, it bears watching.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: madmumbler]
      #84276 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM

lyons said fl panhandle and west coast of fl need to keep an eye on it, because of the models jumping around...so does al to texas....honestly..tomorrow may be the earliest we have any idea where in the gulf

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: madmumbler]
      #84277 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM

Next mission in Ike: pressure down to around 955 hPa and highest surface wind 105 kt. No vortex data message until now! Will be interesting to hear about the state of the eyewall!

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #84279 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:20 AM

The NHC has been trying to stress to not rely on the cone AFTER 3 days out..because there could be significant errors. What is going to determine where Ike goes is the conditions Ike may run into...land masses, troughs, etc..models cannot predict all of that with any certainty.
I saw Dr. Lyons and he was saying that everyone from Florida (meaning all of Florida, in which the Keys would be included) all the way to the central gulf states should be keeing an eye on Ike.

Here ispart of the 9:00AM Hurricane Statement regarding the Keys:
AS OF 900 AM...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL VISITORS...RECREATIONAL
VEHICLES...TRAVEL AND BOAT TRAILERS. VISITORS SHOULD LEAVE THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND OFFICIALS SUGGEST RELOCATING TO HOTELS ON THE MAINLAND WELL AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. TOLL COLLECTION HAS BEEN
SUSPENDED AT THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE. VISITORS NEEDING TO FIND INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE VISIT FLORIDA VISITOR ASSISTANCE HOT LINE AT 1-800-287-8598. AT THIS TIME EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS PLANNING TO ISSUE A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL
RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES BEGINNING SUNDAY AT 700
AM. CURRENTLY...GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS
RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY IN THREE PHASES. BEGINNING WITH ALL LOWER KEYS RESIDENTS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF KEY WEST AT 800 AM SUNDAY...MIDDLE KEYS RESIDENTS INCLUDING MARATHON AND KEY COLONY
BEACH BEGINNING AT NOON SUNDAY...AND FINALLY THE UPPER KEYS RESIDENTS...INCLUDING ISLAMORADA AND OCEAN REEF AT 400 PM SUNDAY.
THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY...BEFORE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. THE SHELTER AT
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT
U.S. ROUTE 40...TAMIAMI TRAIL...WILL BE OPENING 800 AM SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHELTERS ON THE MAINLAND WILL BE ANNOUNCED AS SOON AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. AT THIS TIME...ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY. THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR ALL COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS AND GENERAL AVIATION
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.

So, wherever you are, you can read the Local Hurricane Statements that are at the very top of the Main page. They contain some pretty important information. We will have a better idea by tomorrow night, I believe, so also pay attention to your local news stations.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Raymond]
      #84280 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:23 AM

Quote:

Next mission in Ike: pressure down to around 955 hPa and highest surface wind 105 kt. No vortex data message until now! Will be interesting to hear about the state of the eyewall!




According to Weather Underground's recon graphic... the mission beginning 9/6/08 14:13z (about an hour ago) found maximum surface winds of 140mph, and lowest pressure of 956.1mb.

IF this information is at all accurate, the 11am intensity forecast can be thrown out the window.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Hugh]
      #84281 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:27 AM

Yep, new data: peak surface wind 124 kt (may be a bit high!), but a believable 120 kt peak flight level wind.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Hugh]
      #84282 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM

I dont believe that is accurate on the winds, probably a hyper burst @ flight level. I do think she is up to near 120mph though.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: Raymond]
      #84283 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM

URNT12 KWBC 061509
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/1415Z
B. 21 DEG 48 MIN N
68 DEG 16 MIN W
C. NA
D. 85 KT
E. 310 DEG 13 NM
F. 025 DEG 125 KT
G. 310 DEG 15 NM
H. 953 MB
I. 16 C/2413 M
J. 17 C/2669 M
K. 16 C/NA
L. OPEN W
M. E35/25/20
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0309A IKE OB 08 AL092008
MAX FL WIND 125 KTS NW QUAD 1412Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 95 KTS SE QUAD 1418Z
EYE OPEN W-SW
TURBULENT NW QUAD DRY AIR INTRUSION

953mb with an OPEN Eye... Wow!

Air Force RECON is in the chocks preparing to take off for their Mission. Should be airborne within the next 45 minutes.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: danielw]
      #84285 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:37 AM

Now the question is... will the NHC send out what basically amount to a retraction of their 11am intensity report? Clearly, Ike is stronger than a Cat 2 hurricane right now. Although SFMR reading shows 100mph surface winds.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Sep 06 2008 11:39 AM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: madmumbler]
      #84287 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:41 AM

Ok, here is the vortex data message: pressure down to 953 hPa. They mention a 125 kt flight level wind in the NW-quadrant, but they say also, that the NW-quadrant is ver y turbulent due to dry air intrusion. The eye is oval shaped and open to the W-SW.

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 134
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
New Orleans again?! [Re: Raymond]
      #84289 - Sat Sep 06 2008 12:04 PM

One one hand I am relieved that my own town is now out of Ike's cone, but I am horrified that it seems that New Orleans is again right in the middle of the projected path of the hurricane. Can New Orleans take yet another near miss or hit?

--------------------
Motto: chown -R linux:GNU *
Distros: Debian, Xubuntu, Mint
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #84290 - Sat Sep 06 2008 12:19 PM

Quote:

One one hand I am relieved that my own town is now out of Ike's cone, but I am horrified that it seems that New Orleans is again right in the middle of the projected path of the hurricane. Can New Orleans take yet another near miss or hit?




I'm afraid not. Gustav leveled most of the high tension power transmission lines south of I-10.
Many will be without power for another week or two as it is.
Distribution and transmission lines are down in much of SE and S Central Louisiana. Another storm shouldn't do much more damage other than delay repair.
It will cost the evacuees more money to evacuate and the area will lose tourism money and tax money.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: danielw]
      #84291 - Sat Sep 06 2008 12:42 PM

GFS has moved back west with IKE into the central GOM. This shows ya why each run is different,especially after 72hrs.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: scottsvb]
      #84292 - Sat Sep 06 2008 12:45 PM

Quote:

GFS has moved back west with IKE into the central GOM. This shows ya why each run is different,especially after 72hrs.




Very true. When there is little or no run-to-run consistency, it's extremely difficult to put much faith in the models. The "consensus" has not appeared to move a whole lot over time, based upon the NHC's forecast only being adjusted very slightly, but individual models are waffling just like they did with Gustav. It's going to be a long, frustrating week.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: scottsvb]
      #84296 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:08 PM

The new GFS does hint its going to recurve but the question is where and if it ever does? and some of the other models are showing some recurve on them.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84298 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:11 PM

Quote:

The new GFS does hint its going to recurve but the question is where and if it ever does? and some of the other models are showing some recurve on them.




It looks to me like it does indeed HINT at a recurve, but does so basically with it sitting offshore of New Orleans. A recurve at that point would be very bad I think.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: Hugh]
      #84299 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:18 PM

The previous vortex message was corrected to indicate a 959mb central pressure, not 953 mb. Ike is probably a little stronger than 110 mph right now, but some of the really high winds reported earlier were probably associated with transient features that aren't representative of the system's intensity. Ike's satellite presentation isn't the greatest right now, but it seems to be at least holding its own.

Someone was asking about the CLP5 model above... I believe that model is strictly based on climatology, i.e. what past storms have done (on average) when they were in roughly the same position. By definition, it is a "no skill" forecast. It is mainly used for comparison with other models... if a model can't do a lot better than climatology, then it is no good. It has little actual use in forecasting individual storms.

Ike seems to have taken on a slightly more westerly track (as opposed to WSW) in the last few hours, but that is not long enough to determine a long-term trend.

edit: the most recent apparent flight-level fixes from the HDOBs suggest that a little more southerly component has resumed.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sat Sep 06 2008 01:21 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely [Re: danielw]
      #84300 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:20 PM

Quote:

.......
953mb with an OPEN Eye... Wow!

Air Force RECON is in the chocks preparing to take off for their Mission. Should be airborne within the next 45 minutes.





see both planes are about to pass each other in IKE... i noticed to that the pressure reading from the NOAA plane pass was corrected to a 959mb. wonder what happened in the data?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84301 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:25 PM

Looking at the satellite loop, I definately see where the EYE appeared to turn almost due west, and now has resumed a more southwest motion. The overall convective envelope of Ike has continued to shove basically due west the whole time, it appears, though, so the eye movements may have just been internal reorganization. Does that make sense?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: Hugh]
      #84303 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:39 PM

It's certainly possible that there has been some erratic motion because of internal reorganization. The NOAA plane that is currently in there earlier reported a fairly large, elliptical eye that was open to the west, so the inner core of the storm is in an unsettled state.

It seems as though that Ike may be growing in size a little bit as well.


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