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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: Hugh]
      #84305 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:44 PM

Yes, ther are two missions in Ike and they penetrated the eye nearly at the same time. And the one mission from West to SE flew some a circle in the eye and found 953 hpa. It also found 127 kt flight level wind in the SE eyewall and this is believable, because you can see they extremely violent processes in the SE-E part of the eye in the visible loop on Tropical RAMSDIS. The other flight from NE to SW missed this feature. So very interesting dynamics in the storm right now!
edit: Sorry, confused the directions and missions totally. Mission 4 flew SE-NW through the eye and found the high values in the NW, obviously in the open part of the eye. Is there an explanation for this?

Edited by Raymond (Sat Sep 06 2008 02:00 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: Raymond]
      #84307 - Sat Sep 06 2008 01:53 PM

Ike was officially re-upgraded to Cat 3 at the 2pm intermediate advisory, with winds of 115mph. This seems conservative based upon the current recon information (which estimates winds at 119.7mph). Pressure reported at 956 by the latest vortex and this is in the advisory.

Interestingly, the advisory says "Some fluctuations in strength are possible
during the next 48 hours...but Ike is expected to remain a major
hurricane strength during this period." Since Ike is now on the edge of major hurricane strength, this may indicate some strengthening?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: Hugh]
      #84309 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:12 PM

go to the store..come back and the GFDL and GFS have shifted west with both aimed at the panhandle...hopefully just another inconsistent model run

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Sat Sep 06 2008 02:12 PM)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: danielw]
      #84311 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:23 PM

Quote:

Quote:

One one hand I am relieved that my own town is now out of Ike's cone, but I am horrified that it seems that New Orleans is again right in the middle of the projected path of the hurricane. Can New Orleans take yet another near miss or hit?




I'm afraid not. Gustav leveled most of the high tension power transmission lines south of I-10.
Many will be without power for another week or two as it is.
Distribution and transmission lines are down in much of SE and S Central Louisiana. Another storm shouldn't do much more damage other than delay repair.
It will cost the evacuees more money to evacuate and the area will lose tourism money and tax money.




The problem, as I see it, is that I believe many New Orleanians are unaware that we are getting closer to being inside of the cone for Ike. Even places that have power may not have cable or internet. Plus, as of this morning, both wwltv.com and nola.com were focused on Gustav restoration. Fox was broadcasting stuff about Ike, and it was on the second page of the Times Picayune, but it's not headline news around here. Couple that with the miss, the problems with re-entry (from the evacuees perspective), and the lack of money after Gustav's evacuation, and this really concerns me.

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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DWard
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Molino, FL (N of Pensacola) 30.68N 87.35W
Re: Pcola [Re: pcola]
      #84314 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:51 PM

I hope you are right. Living here in Pensacola.
My fiance' is outside puting the last screws in the front windows for our panels of our house just in case. With both of us working in the medical field, me in an ER and him for a home health care company, it makes times like this tense. He could possibly go in call mode by the middle of next week. There have been many times in the past ( Erin, Opal, Ivan, Dennis) that we have both worked closely with the Medical Shelters that our county sets up. Their company usually provides all of the equipment. It leaves me here usually making most of the home preps by myself. By him doing this today hopefully I will not have to get the prescription for Xanax filled.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: MissouriHurricane2008]
      #84315 - Sat Sep 06 2008 02:57 PM

So, this is the third time that they found such high values for peak winds in differnt parts of the eyewall. This time it´s 123 kt in th flight level ad 121 kt at the surface. That´s really no transient feature anymore, if such high values exist over hours! Pressure is arounf 951 hPa!
And I also don´t agree about the structure of the storm. It´s quite good outflow in all quadrants. I would expect further intensification of the storm.
The best link for recon data: Recon


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Raymond]
      #84318 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:05 PM

Cloud tops are definately cooled considerably over the last few hours, although the eye has not yet reappeared. My guess is that the NHC will be very reluctant to upgrade to Cat 4 with the current satellite presentation, but recon reports sure make a convincing case right now.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Hugh]
      #84319 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:17 PM

Yes, will be interesting to see, what the NHC says about it. I think, they will stay with the central pressure and set it to 110 kt or so.
By the wy, CIMSS maps confirm that shear has relaxed considerably.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Raymond]
      #84320 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:23 PM

Water vapor imagery, which still showed a fair amount of shear this morning, shows it to be relaxed now as well. We could be entering another phase of rapid intensification, unfortunately. The only thing it's missing is a clearly defined eye.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Hugh]
      #84322 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM

There seems to be sufficient evidence now to bump the winds iup to 110-115 kts, even considering the less-than-ideal satellite presentation and inner core organization. If it does finally close off its eye at some point and become more symmetric in the next 24 hours, that will be bad news.

Latest recon has the pressure down to 950mb.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Hugh]
      #84323 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM

last pass by AF Recon shows a 6mb drop in about an 2 hours... from 956 to 950mb... still open on the west side of the eyewall... G-IV is up from islands... so we should get some good data in tonights runs.

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°32'N 69°11'W (21.5333N 69.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 126 miles (202 km) to the E (88°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,677m (8,783ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)

L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 129kts (~ 148.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:12:30Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 06 2008 03:34 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Hugh]
      #84324 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM

URNT12 KNHC 061927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 06/19:06:50Z
B. 21 deg 32 min N
069 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2677 m
D. 99 kt
E. 228 deg 13 nm
F. 317 deg 109 kt
G. 228 deg 015 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 10 C/ 3029 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0409A IKE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 19:12:30 Z


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84325 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM

Quote:

There seems to be sufficient evidence now to bump the winds iup to 110-115 kts, even considering the less-than-ideal satellite presentation and inner core organization. If it does finally close off its eye at some point and become more symmetric in the next 24 hours, that will be bad news.
Latest recon has the pressure down to 950mb.




It looks pretty symmetric right now, to me, just looks less than ideal in terms of not having a nice eye showing up (yet, I'll go ahead of say, given that pressure!). If the trend continues, it will definately be bad news for the Bahamas and the Keys... and points beyond.

Do we know for sure that the G-IV is in the air now?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: danielw]
      #84326 - Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM

The other mission penetrated the center shortly after the other. 950 hPa are confirmed and flight level winds with 128 kt too. In the HDOB there had been 118 and 115 kt surface winds. The peaks are in the NE and N- part of the eyewall.
Yes, there is a G-IV in the air. Saw a dropsonde report recently.

Edited by Raymond (Sat Sep 06 2008 03:39 PM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Raymond]
      #84328 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:00 PM

That´s the last confirmation for a potent cat. 4 and a significant intensification during the last hours: A dropsonde in the NE- wall reported 124 kt at the surface!

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Raymond]
      #84330 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:03 PM

well we have missions 03 - 06 going on right now for ike. An AF Recon is now almost due east of Daytona Beach at 30kft droping dropsondes... while the G-IV in north of Ike now droping dropsondes and an AR Recon is flying in Ike right now at 10kft... while the NOAA plane is heading to the base in the islands.. we should have good data for tonights models...

Quote:

That´s the last confirmation for a potent cat. 4 and a significant intensification during the last hours: A dropsonde in the NE- wall reported 124 kt at the surface!




agree... the dropsonde hit 182mph at 827mb (roughly around 4kft above the surface) and showed an avg. of 150mph winds from 3-5kft. **cool to see the GPS Dropsonde traveled about 9.2miles from its launch location til it hit the water** in about 4 mins from launch from 10kft to it hit water 9 miles away

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 06 2008 04:13 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Raymond]
      #84332 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:05 PM

NE Eyewall Dropsonde
55850 11654 5000ft level 115deg at 154kts
66827 12158 just below 5000ft 120deg at 158kt, 182mph


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #84334 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:10 PM

Quote:

...we should have good data for tonights models...




That or too much data for the models to ingest.
Here's hoping that the extra data will refine the Cone. To some degree.


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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 59
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.62N 80.35W
Re: New Orleans again?! [Re: Terra]
      #84336 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:18 PM

having been in the NOLA EOC and working on the city evacuation (but now back home in Florida), the possibility of another storm is of great concern. Many residents now feel like the left for "no good reason"...after all..."nothing happened". Getting people to do this again...in a short amount of time will be tough. And a strong storm will prove a disaster.

For now...it is early and we need to see how much interaction does with Cuba before we can make some solid guess-timates on track. I just hope and pray that people will stay smart but knowing human nature I remain fearful.

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: danielw]
      #84337 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:20 PM

The models have been trending more to the west, however everyone within the cone should keep a close eye on this as things will become more clear over the next couple of days. I hope the "residents" of Key West take the evacuation seriously and head north. The conch republic contains a sturdy bunch but this is no time for a hurricane party on Duval Street.

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