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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84412 - Sun Sep 07 2008 02:20 AM

yes the 2 am came out...

the NHC likes to try and verify an older forecast, it is the way it works...

and they don't like to jump on temporary jogs...they are very cautious which is good

but there is very little southern component

the plane should be there by now.. and advisories are not written in real time... they are written before, set up, released..its a process

will see what the 5 am brings.. going to bed, enjoy reading your discussion, everyone's thoughts at this late hour but rarely do you see a storm here

wondering here if...

he is slowing down, any slow down in forward movement might be more impt than a few bobbles s or n as it may mean there is a weakness in the high... if he keeps barreling west than not..

and wondering if he is really a bit stronger waiting for recon.. id think he's more like 140 but whats 5 mph..

what an eye... easy enough to follow
amazing storm

nite, thanks

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: LoisCane]
      #84413 - Sun Sep 07 2008 02:33 AM

Quote:

yes the 2 am came out...

the NHC likes to try and verify an older forecast, it is the way it works...

.. and advisories are not written in real time... they are written before, set up, released..its a process






Not sure I entirely agree with you but the recon plane is in the storm now so we should get some good info.

night


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84414 - Sun Sep 07 2008 02:39 AM

Looks like they were in the Eye at 21.133N 71.600W. Extrapolated surface pressure 944.8 mb. Winds calm.

Thats a reduction of 3mb since 2am advisory.


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 120
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84415 - Sun Sep 07 2008 02:53 AM

Just got a vortex, 947mb right over the southern edge of the Caicos reef, SW of Cockburn town.

Highest winds I've seen so far have been right around 100kts, but it doesn't look like they've got the strongest winds in the windfield sampled yet..... (watching Mission 07 here)

That would support Cat 3 intensity from the pressure.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 06:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 6:25:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°09'N 71°37'W (21.15N 71.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 38 miles (61 km) to the SW (235°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,624m (8,609ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (116°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 213° at 105kts (From between the SSW and SW at ~ 120.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (116°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 06:31:30Z


Edited by Genesis (Sun Sep 07 2008 02:55 AM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84416 - Sun Sep 07 2008 02:55 AM

The vortex data message says: 947 hPa; 118 kt max. flight level wind; circular, closed eye
So it´s in a steady state with a movement nearly straight to the west.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: Genesis]
      #84417 - Sun Sep 07 2008 03:04 AM

I'm surprised thats the lowest pressure and strongest winds they could find. Ike looks very impressive on satellite! Very large eye.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84418 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:00 AM

Latest modell runs (should have ingested some of the recon data!?): All dynamical modells (the GFDL´s, HWRF, NOGAPS, except the GFS), show the nothward component to the westward motion to begin sooner, so that Ike stays more to the northern side of Cuba. The GFS sends Ike to the southern side. In the later forecast periond in the central gulf all modells (exept the NOGAPS, which send Ike straight NW to New Orleans) turn the storm from NW back to the WNW and send the storm to Texas. So Florida (except the Keys) is a bit out of the focus for the moment.
Is there a good source for the ECMWF-runs?
edit: Found a good source for the ECMWF with interesting comparison to GFS: ECMWF
So the ECMWF follows the general trend and sends the storm to texas.

Newest Center Fix: Nothing new. Data show a strong cat. 3 with 946 hPa central pressure. Movement straight west between the last two center fixes.

Edited by Raymond (Sun Sep 07 2008 04:32 AM)


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 118
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84419 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:04 AM

Actually the 11:00 advisory had him at 21.2 north and the 2:00 advisory has him at 21.3 north that is actually slightly north of west

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