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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84923 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:57 PM

Ike looks to be going NW and seems to be moving a bit faster...winds have increased here in Pensacola and flooding along the coast and bays continues

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: pcola]
      #84929 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:36 PM

91L looks like it may be trying to wind up a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


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jf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: pcola]
      #84930 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:38 PM

Over the past two hours Ike appears to be moving NW. Has any new data come in too warrant such a directional change ?

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: jf]
      #84931 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:44 PM

See also my posting before!
Movement between last two center fixes ( 1-hour -period): accelatering to the WNW.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84933 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:57 PM

The last flight through the center (from NE to SW) indicated almost no sign of a inner wind max. The inner eyewall is still there, but it seems to be becoming a less dominant feature,

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84935 - Thu Sep 11 2008 04:56 PM

Ike is encountering an unfavorably big wall of dry to very dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico again today, and this appears to be even more pronounced than the last two days.. probably just the result of subsidence on the western half exaggerating the already dry conditions in the area. Before Ike has a decent shot to complete an eyewall replacement cycle and ramp up the winds before landfall, it is becoming increasingly necessary for the upper-level outflow to improve in the west... as oceanic heat content will be less and less of a potential energizing influence, and the long feeder leg stretching all the way into the northwestern Caribbean keeps hoarding things to itself, helping to maintain the rather asymmetric nature of the hurricane.

In a way, Ike sort of resembles a tropical mirror-image version of those very large and deep extratropical cutoff lows found in the upper mid-latitudes around winter. It probably can't be over-emphasized that the two largest threats associated with this particularly odd hurricane are: 1) storm surge and 2) phenomenally widespread very strong to damaging winds. Storm surge is already occurring along southern Louisiana, including up to six feet of surge near New Orleans. Both the winds and the storm surge will start arriving way ahead of the center of circulation in this gargantuan cyclone, and while there is still a question as to whether or not Ike will ever develop a core of real Cat 2/3 or maybe even Cat 4 winds, there's little doubt about the potential for severe impacts from hour after hour after hour of pounding from even strong tropical storm force winds and very high seas.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
5 PM Discussion [Re: cieldumort]
      #84936 - Thu Sep 11 2008 04:59 PM

500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO
80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER
WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE
ARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.
AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO
ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.


BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/112051.shtml

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 11 2008 05:05 PM)


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Hurikid
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 14
Loc: Barbados
Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #84937 - Thu Sep 11 2008 05:28 PM

New vortex out

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 21:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 20:50:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°55'N 89°29'W (25.9167N 89.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 283 miles (455 km) to the S (173°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,702m (8,865ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 218° at 77kts (From the SW at ~ 88.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:54:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
UNABLE TO FIX SFC CNTR DUE TO UNDERCAST


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #84939 - Thu Sep 11 2008 05:52 PM

Quote:

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.




Listening to an interview in Galveston on NPR on the way home -- High tide is already way above normal and minor street flooding is already occuring. This storm surge is going to be enormous. They also went on to say that some people are not evacuating the island because of the memories of Rita where many got stranded on the Highway and the storm missed them.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: craigm]
      #84940 - Thu Sep 11 2008 06:29 PM

Just a note,

Mult-Coverage TV Adjusted: http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html

Recordings:

(Animation)


flhurricae Webcam recordings (will be turned on/off frequency adjusted as needed):

Spot Cam/Galveston Spot Beach Cam - Commodore Cam - Commodore Surf Cam/Galveston - Palacios Bay Cam
(Let us know if you know of other good views)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #84944 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:58 PM

It's important to focus on the whole storm in ways and not just the center. As much as the point where it makes landfall will have the strongest weather this storm will influence the weather from areas much further away than normal. Water has piled into the Gulf from days of him moving slowly since he left Cuba. When water piles and hits an immovable object (the coast) it causes flooding even if the center of the storm is far to the west closer to Houston.

Also, every once in a while he jogs north before continuing on WNW and think that needs to be remembered as if he continues to do that or does it at landfall he could seriously impact the SW Louisiana area and there has been so much emphasis in the news on Houston which is his most likely target I wouldn't want the low lying area of the Texas/LA border to not be prepared for him to come in to the east of Houston. Probably won't happen but people should understand it can happen. If Ike took the left/easten side of the cone he would infact come in around the border not Houston even though...he probably will affect Houston.

Lastly even though he could ramp up before landfall... remember he is a 100mph storm with the strong winds concentrated in a small area and that massive cloud mass you see on sats is filled with lower, tropical storm force winds and high surf.

He's one to watch til the last minute, beautiful on satellite imagery but not as charming up close and personal.

Don't fall prey to hype, what he is..is enough, he isn't the Great 1900 Galveston Hurricane and today we are properly warned far in advance.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84948 - Thu Sep 11 2008 09:29 PM

Ike's 100 mph sustained might yet only be located in a few small portions, but these have not been at his center, or necessarily even near the center - additionally, Ike has had a very wide windfield. Ike's windfield is now larger than that of Hurricane Katrina's, with hurricane-force winds out to 125 or so miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds out to 275 miles from the center.

According to Dr. Lyons, Ike might be one of largest hurricanes ever tacked in the Gulf of Mexico. From just the looks of it, this certainly makes sense. And, per the experimental Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) based storm surge potential model developed by Dr. Mark Powell of HRD, Hurricane Ike may have hit numbers on that experimental scale suggesting potential for creating storm surge slightly higher than even that of historic hurricanes Katrina and Wilma.

Ike is a massive tropical cyclone that appears to also now be coming into a slightly more favorable environment for further strengthening, and official forecasts still call for Ike to make landfall as a gargantuan Category 3. Even if not making landfall at Cat 3, Ike's storm surge potential will continue to be easily one, and perhaps even two, full category/ies above whatever Saffir-Simpson category he ends up as at landfall.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: cieldumort]
      #84950 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:05 PM

One thing I do have to wonder about is if Ike will also maintain higher wind speeds for a much longer period of time inland due to his current spread out structure. Once Ike is near the frontal boundary, I think we may see an incredible swath of severe weather over a couple of days. If there is a silver lining, Ike won't be moving slowly. I shudder to think the amount of precipitation a storm like Ike could drop if he was moving at the speed of Fay or Gustav.

We may see the largest amount of destruction to a power grid in some time. Not too mention a major disruption to transportation networks. Ike's impact will be felt outside the area.

--------------------
Jim


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shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl 30.16N 81.63W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Rasvar]
      #84951 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:08 PM

I was thinking the same thing. When he is inland, a lot of states are going to feel the wrath. And with him moving fast inland he will not have time to unwind...so all the states in his way are going to get high winds and tornadoes. How do you evacuate from a storm this big????

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Rasvar]
      #84952 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:14 PM

Quote:

One thing I do have to wonder about is if Ike will also maintain higher wind speeds for a much longer period of time inland due to his current spread out structure.




All three newscasts in the area just reported that they expect to see where Ike lands no less than sustained 100 mph winds for 4 - 8 hours, and possibly higher sustained wind speed. I would suggest if they are correct that a significant portion of the power grid will be out for some time.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84953 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:23 PM

Note the NHC's takes Ike far inland rather fast and turns it into NW Louisiana and into Arkansas. As he hits land the banding will be massive on radar and there will be severe weather far inland.

One of my pet peeves is the NHC deals with landfall and the media hypes the beach towns but towns far inland will have inland flooding (especially in areas with bayous and rivers) and electric will be affected not just in Houston but to the areas inland people are evacuating to most likely.

Once inland the NWS takes over with giving local information to all the towns and...

The hurricane does not stop at landfall, though his winds may die down some his circulation spins and creates havoc.

So... just concerned that people be aware if they are evacuating from Houston in areas that do not need to be evacuated from homes that are well built with proper shutters and all the tie down straps tied down that by evacuating further north they will be further inland but they will still be possibly affected by power outages and other storm related problems.

Austin is good, Austin is better but you may also lose power in Austin or anywhere to the east of Austin. This storm is massive and the more damage over a large area (fallen trees, electric wires down, localized flooding) will take that much longer to put back the infrastructure.

Wilma in Miami was such a storm as FPL's answer was that so many people across such a large area were without electric and they had to basically rebuild the grid and fix substations across a large area.

something to think on..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84954 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:30 PM

Unless Ike becomes much stronger than it is now, I doubt anyone inland will see 100 mph sustained winds for any length of time. The maximum sustained wind estimates are usually only valid over water and are hardly ever observed by surface-based instruments. More likely would be a prolonged period of 60-80 mph winds, which would still create plenty of damage and havoc when it comes to trees and power lines.

I am skeptical that Ike will become much stronger than it is now. It still has around 24 hours over the Gulf and outflow is improving, but Ike's inner organization is a mess (compared to typical hurricanes) and large storms with poorly defined inner cores usually struggle to intensify.

Ike is still a huge threat even if it does not intensify. Even if it does not produce catastrophic damage in any one area, it is likely to at least produce significant damage over an unusually large area. I don't think anyone knows exactly what to expect from the storm surge out of a storm like this, but it could be pretty bad.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84958 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:41 PM

02:26:30Z
26.233N 90.317W
953.6 mb(~ 28.16 inHg)

URNT12 KNHC 120239
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 12/02:25:40Z
B. 26 deg 16 min N
090 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 2714 m
D. 68 kt
E. 312 deg 48 nm
F. 063 deg 089 kt
G. 312 deg 055 nm
H. 956 mb
I. 13 C/ 3043 m
J. 16 C/ 3045 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 3009A IKE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NW QUAD 02:06:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 313 / 28NM


Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 11 2008 10:44 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: danielw]
      #84959 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:46 PM

And no eye detected on that vortex recon. 953mb with no eye. Wow. Ok...so how long before an eye reforms?

The only evidence of an eye structure is a huge 1.5 degree wide structure way out in the storm, as seen via microwave:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/AT...N-899W.85pc.jpg

I'm not even going to try and pretend I know what this structure means in terms of a storm. I've never seen anything like it in a tropical system.

--

This bouy has recently passed right near the core of Ike - take a look at wave and wind graphs: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

It is located 50 miles ESE of the last vortex recon, and within 9 miles of one of the low pressure points recorded by the NOAA plane not sending out vortex recons.

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Sep 11 2008 11:00 PM)


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amazon
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Austin, TX
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84960 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:55 PM

Looking at the Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation I don't see how Ike is going to turn northward until it gets to west central Texas. That frontal area and digging trough have been stationary or only slowly moving east for the last few days. Why does the NHC see it making a beeline nnw once it makes landfall?

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