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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued
      #84819 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:14 PM

1PM CDT Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Morgan City, LA to Baffin Bay, Texas, hurricane conditions could reach those areas by late tomorrow night.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up from south of Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, and a Hurricane Watch remains there as well.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up from East of Morgan City to the Mississippi Alabama border.

It appears the largest threat from Ike will be the storm surge.

The entirety of Galveston Island is under a mandatory evacuation, coastal communities along the upper Texas coast will very likely be severely affected by surge.

Another area, that may be associated with the remnants of Josephine is now being watched northeast of the Leeward Islands as 91L.

6:45AM CDT Update
From Recon reports it appears the eyewall replacement cycle has begun on Ike. This means that once this

The track is similar to what last night was, and most models are in line.



More to come later today...


10 PM CDT Update
New Track puts Ike near or just north Freeport Texas, and the worst the surge over Galveston area Saturday morning with 125MPH winds (Strength may be higher or lower). Surge will be large, winds north will be large, up to College Station possibly could get Hurricane Force winds.

More to come tomorrow.


6:45PM CDT Update

Ike's pressure continues to drop, rapidly, even though the overall windspeed has not caught up. Ike is still a massive storm that is rapidly gaining strength. Those in the path should follow evacuation orders and other information from local officials.



Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from the mouth of the Mississippi river westward to Cameron, LA. Tropical Storm conditions could be felt there as early 24 hours from now.

Hurricane Watches are up west of Cameron, LA into Texas down to Port Mansfield. This means that Hurricane Conditions are possible in those areas within 36 hours.

Ike is a huge system, much larger than usual wind field, and much larger area of storm surge than you would normally see in the Gulf. Hurricane force winds extend an amazing 90 miles away from the center, along with Tropical Storm force winds around 210 Miles from the center. A very large area could be affected by Ike. Storm Surge is also very large, and could affect a large area of coastline.

Ike is unusual in a number of ways, double eye features, low pressure, with extended hurricane force winds, surface winds found higher than flight level winds, and surface centers matching up perfectly with flight level centers, and the pressure continues to fall. Prepare for the unexpected.



If you are in an evacuation area in Texas, I'd strongly suggest taking up that advice.

Hurricane Ike is a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf, it's large size will keep it from strengthening too much, but I suspect it still will. The forecast is still a Category 4 storm. Because of its size it will likely still be hurricane force well inland, so places such as Austin and inland Texas may be receiving outages and other wind issues.

The story with Ike will be the large area of high winds and surge, and points east and north of the landfall may get hurricane conditions a good way from the Center. Even parts of Florida have seen some of the outer activity of Ike today in some strong outer bands that have moved through.

The track still suggests it making landfall north of Corpus Christi.

The low pressure area that are the remains of Josephine has come back to life today, and may have to be watched. They are currently located northeast of the Leeward Islands.

More to Come soon...

Mark Sudduth and my friend Mike Watkins are out in the HIRT team vehicle studying Hurricane Ike near Galveston, Visit and see the info at Hurricanetrack.com You can see where they are located now at our Ike Google Map

Let us know Ike Conditions in your area

Ike Microwave imagery (MIMIC) (More MIMIC)

Hurricane City Live Audio Stream
Upper Texas Coast Webcams (From Hurricane City)


Texas Emergency Management Reports

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX


Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management

Houston Traffic Cams

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Tampa, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite

Local Media/Television
Multiple Affiliate TV Coverage (TV Wall of local coverage in Houston - Mute individual videos to get audio for just one.)
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Houson Fox 26

Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio

Newspapers
Houston Chronicle
Corpus Christi Caller-Times

Color Sat of Gulf (Animation)

Cuba Mosaic radar recording of Ike Approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports


flhurricae Webcam recordings (will be turned on/off frequency adjusted as needed):

Spot Cam/Galveston Spot Beach Cam - Commodore Cam - Commodore Surf Cam/Galveston - Palacios Bay Cam
(Let us know if you know of other good views)


Ike Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ike


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ike (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ike (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ike

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ike
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ike -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

91L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84821 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:31 PM

Vortex Recon: 952mb

That is a drop of 6mb in the last hour.

--

URNT12 KNHC 102119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/21:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 28 min N
086 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2699 m
D. NA kt
E. 0NA deg 000 nm
F. 214 deg 080 kt
G. 129 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/10/8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 12
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 68KT NW QUAD 20:59:30Z
SFC CENTER COLOCATED WITH FL CENTER

--

Also, HDOB from the inbound NOAA plane found TS force winds almost 240 miles from the center, measured by SFMR. No telling if they extend out further on other paths.

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 10 2008 05:36 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84822 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:39 PM

Ike has transformed into something incredibly odd since crossing Cuba. I can't recall anything like it since I've been watching these things. If anyone else has a good example of something similar to Ike, please let me know.

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Thunderbird12
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Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84823 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:43 PM

The previous vortex message had a pressure of 958 mb, but HDOBs at the time it was taken indicated something closer to 955 mb. The recent drop to 952 mb probably wasn't as dramatic as 6 mb in 2 hours, but still an impressive drop. The most vigorous convection right now seems to be in the inner core and in the inner most of the outer bands, so some consolidation may be occurring. Flight-level winds around the inner core are still relatively weak, though the most recent Ike discussion mentioned that dropsondes indicated stronger winds closer to the surface in the inner core.

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Raymond
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Loc: Germany
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84824 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:47 PM

Yes, realy incredibly odd. Pressure down to 952 hPa and still this weak center. Ike is approaching his deepest pressure before reaching Kuba, as he had been a cat. 4 and now it´s barely a cat.2.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84825 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:48 PM

Ike is sitting right over the Loop Current.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008253go.jpg

Last recon positioned it at about 24.5N 86W - that's the SE half of the loop current in the above linked graphic.


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david2
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84827 - Wed Sep 10 2008 06:08 PM

local mets here in Dallas say to expect possible 50mph sustained winds with possible gust to 70 if Ike keeps his track into North Texas

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: flahurricane]
      #84829 - Wed Sep 10 2008 06:25 PM

We are thinking about you Texas and pray everyone is preparing! I have a small tip from my conversations with homeowners following Hurricane Andrew when we were down there repairing homes. Put your important documents and belongings (that will fit) in your dishwasher if you are not evacuating with them.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84833 - Wed Sep 10 2008 06:39 PM

Quote:

Ike has transformed into something incredibly odd since crossing Cuba. I can't recall anything like it since I've been watching these things. If anyone else has a good example of something similar to Ike, please let me know.



Couldn't agree more. Storms are definately larger in this cycle (multi decadal). I think at some point as Ike moves further west the entire Gulf will be covered by his outflow. We are still feeling and seeing the energy on the east coast of Florida and we are 450 miles away.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84836 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:00 PM

Quote:

Yes, realy incredibly odd. Pressure down to 952 hPa and still this weak center. Ike is approaching his deepest pressure before reaching Kuba, as he had been a cat. 4 and now it´s barely a cat.2.




I was very struck by that too. 952 MB seems veryvery low for a 100 MPH storm.
And it's getting larger, unreal.


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
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Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #84837 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:11 PM

Quote:

Channel 9 (ABC) Orlando reporting a tornado touch down in area of Kissimee. Some really nasty storms coming through Central Florida from Ike's bands this evening...




On the visible floater loop you can see the thunderstorm blow up over Orlando that is causing the problems. This is way far away from the center which shows the overall impact of these systems.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: weather999]
      #84838 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:12 PM

Last recon detail report had 946mb in it, I hope that's a misread.

230600 2436N 08612W 6969 02697 9468 +167 +060 292011 016 999 999 03
230630 2438N 08611W 6969 02696 9462 +170 +060 138003 009 999 999 03
230700 2440N 08611W 6965 02706 9488 +162 +058 126012 019 999 999 03


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: weather999]
      #84839 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:13 PM

NOAA2 / Mission 22 has found 100kt FL winds 95 miles from the center with SFMR surface winds maxing around 70kts. These are in an swath of 85+kt FL winds near 24.8333N 84.7167W.

It also detected 90+kt FL winds in an area 125 mile from the center with SFMR surface winds maxing around 65kts near 25.8667N 84.85W.

This is an incredible wind field.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84840 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:25 PM

Eyewall dropsonde by AF303:

953mb eyewall surface pressure.
83kt eyewall surface winds.

This drop is in the north portion of the eyewall.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ar...&mission=20


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84841 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:28 PM

Based on the current recon info, I'd say this storm could be a historical player. All of the pieces are starting to fall into place...not much to stop the outcome.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84842 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:30 PM

Eye: 947mb

URNT12 KNHC 102327
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/23:06:20Z
B. 24 deg 37 min N
086 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2660 m
D. 50 kt
E. 227 deg 091 nm
F. 318 deg 068 kt
G. 228 deg 035 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 11 C/ 3047 m
J. 17 C/ 3045 m

K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8

N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 18
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND WIND 85KT NE QUAD 23:23:00Z


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84845 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:39 PM

HDOBs are suggesting the presence of a third (or however many there are now) wind maximum at a radius of about 30-40 miles, in between the inner core and the main outer wind max. If this truly is another wind max, it may signal an eventual eyewall replacement for the inner core, though it's not clear what kind of effect that might have on the outer wind max.

Winds also seem to be coming up near the inner core. Pressure has been dropping pretty rapidly, but the response so far seems to be an increase in wind speed in multiple areas of the circulation, rather then being focused in one particular location.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84847 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:45 PM

How can that be physically possible? Wouldn't the pressure drop focus the winds in 1 area and not 3 distinct areas??? 11mb drop since 5pm advisory...wow

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84848 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:46 PM

NOAA's HDOBs: 944.6mb

Echoing Mike's, I hope it's not true, only 16 minutes after the 947mb dropsonde reading.

232200 2442N 08612W 7202 02419 9462 +192 +159 109037 045 053 003 00
232230 2440N 08613W 7192 02420 9446 +196 +158 116008 017 029 001 00
232300 2438N 08614W 7187 02436 9468 +181 +162 306013 018 028 003 03
232330 2436N 08615W 7195 02445 9497 +171 +170 309037 047 050 010 00


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84849 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:22 PM

To answer MikeC's question above, I do not remember a storm evolving in quite the way that Ike has. The strangest thing to me is the presence of the very small, compact inner eyewall in the middle of such a huge, broad circulation. It is like a storm within a storm.

The 7PM CDT advisory has the radius of hurricane-force winds up to 115 miles.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Loc: South Florida
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84850 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:37 PM

It's a strange shaped storm. I believe it does have dry air from yesterday entrained in it but before it hit Cuba it also had a similar structure.

It was also said several times that it was a "dry" storm... a huge circulation but a very dry storm when you look at the infared imagery. Dry being relative obviously.

Some images of large gulf storms.

http://www.virginmedia.com/microsites/technology/slideshow/vm-tech-gallery/hurricanes/img_11.jpg

Rita.. different but similar spot in Eastern Gulf
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co...05-0115-UTC.jpg

Amazing picture of Gilbert

http://www.nasm.si.edu/exhibitions/lae/images/LE410L11.jpg

Notice in this pic the storm in the Pacific similar to the set up we have now with Ike


Big Gulf storms are always amazing to watch but very dangerous and deadly.

Keep watching imagine Ike will evolve some more before our eyes!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84852 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:43 PM

RC --N42RF just penetrated eye again---942.5mb

Time:
00:29:30Z
Coordinates:
24.7167N 86.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press:
718.5 mb (~ 21.22 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
2,413 meters (~ 7,917 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
942.5 mb (~ 27.83 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 167° at 4 knots (From the SSE at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp:
19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Dew Pt:
17.0°C (~ 62.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Wed Sep 10 2008 08:44 PM)


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lennox
Registered User


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Posts: 2
Loc: Toronto, ON
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: craigm]
      #84855 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:26 PM

Another new low from N42RF:

01:05:00Z
24.733N 86.433W
723.1 mb(~ 21.35 inHg)
2,350 meters(~ 7,710 feet)
941.6 mb(~ 27.81 inHg)

The Dvorak image loop shows good continued convection over the inner eye wall. Amazing size.


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
after seeing what we're seeing, what if? [Re: craigm]
      #84856 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:32 PM

I have been watching these things since Frederic of 79....and just missed Katrina...and watched her develop. A few things noteworthy and in need of a met or two to explain if my thought pattern fits what I'm seeing.

Could the reason Ike has a low pressure drop, yet still, wind speeds that haven't caught up to that drop, be because it is so large in diameter? I'm thinking of a skater who the closer she pulls herself in when spinning, the faster she goes...

Here is the thought I'm having. Is the size of this cane, as well as the quick drop in the pressure, and the evident double and perhaps triple eyewall....be an event we just haven't seen before? Is this perhaps the super-type cyclone they talk about? This thing is so large...that when you do the floater loop...it seems like a small picture....it doesn't cover the whole storm...

and now it's reaching the warm eddies...and I heard on the weather....that they can't discount a 5.....

anyhow....given all that...my original feelings that a quickly developing and more dangerous hurricane...might be something the models have NOT considered. Could the size of the storm...and power of it....overcome the high pressure ridges...and in effect...could Ike go wherever it wants...?

I seriously would like a met's thoughts on this.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 11 2008 01:04 AM)


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mikethewreck
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 49
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: chuck75161]
      #84857 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:37 PM

We can't be sure what Ike's intensity will be. There are a LOT a variables between now and landfall. Shear and eyewall replacement cycles may be just what the doctor ordered for Ike. Now is not the time to panic or instill panic. Texans, now is the time to put your hurricane plan to use.

Wasn't Ike originally a small storm like Andrew? How did he morph into this Gilbert-like monster?

I think this hurricane season will be the subject for more than one graduate thesis. Lots of very interesting storms...but Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic must be pretty sick of them by now.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: mikethewreck]
      #84859 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:46 PM

Ike is an interesting storm, with a well-defined outer eyewall of about 80-90 nm radius and a reasonably well-defined inner eyewall of about 10 nm radius. The pressure keeps falling, but the wind field is not responding because of this dual eyewall structure. Conventional satellite shows a deep mass of convection atop the center of circulation, but there are also hints of dry air intrusion just outside of this. Due to the thermodynamics behind this and the lack of organization of this tight inner core, the pressure falls are not leading to a significant increase in maximum winds.

Instead, the pressure gradient -- the primary driver of the winds -- is largely uniform from the inner eyewall to about 100 nm radius. As a result, the radii of hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds continues to expand as the pressure falls. While we don't know enough about dual eyewall structures or hurricanes in general to conclusively attribute this evolution to such a structure, but it seems as though that land interaction and/or dual eyewall structure *plus* less than ideal atmospheric conditions (here, dry air intrusion; with Gustav, upper-level shear) tends to lead to this combination of low surface pressures but not correspondingly maximum winds. Will these conditions change? It's tough to say. We don't know enough about inner core dynamics to determine this, leading there to be a lot of variability right now. Ultimately, a major hurricane is likely at landfall, but how major of one?

In summary, what is important is how the pressure falls change the pressure gradient, not so much just the pressure falls. Something in the storm is keeping the wind field from responding and it almost assuredly is the dual eyewall structure. How that evolves over the next day and a half will determine how the storm's wind field evolves up until landfall. Steady strengthening is possible as is a period of rapid intensification. Which will it be? Truly, it is tough to say.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: mikethewreck]
      #84860 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:50 PM

The latest images on the IR loop show the eye closing over... this couldn't possibly be an eyewall replacement cycle, could it? Is Ike's structure ready for an ERC?

IR Loop

--------------------
Allison


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SeaMule
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Clark]
      #84861 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:14 PM

post Clark....one other question....
Could the sheer size and diameter of the 100 mile radius just mean that it a question of size. it just take longer and more heat from the water to get Ike's wind speed going? Assuredly, a smaller buzz saw like Andrew would grab the energy quicker...

at any rate...excellent explanation. This one will teach the mets a lot. All I can do is watch and learn a little....


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Random Chaos
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Allison]
      #84862 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:18 PM

I would personally suggest the JSL loop over the RB loop for looking at the outer eyewall:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-jsl.html

And while we are at it, you can see it on Microwave imagery too - it's almost entirely encircled the inner eyewall, with the exception of the very north:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/AT...N-863W.95pc.jpg

This is one strange storm.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84865 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:16 PM

When looking at the most recent NHC forecast track, keep in mind that the lines between forecast points do not necessarily represent the expected path of the storm. Drawing a straight line between the 48 and 72 hour forecast points makes it appear the forecast track is closer to Galveston, but the storm (if it takes the path expected by NHC) is likely to make more of a gradual curve between 48 and 72 hours, bringing it onshore further south and then arcing back into northeast Texas by 72 hours.

That is not to say that a further north landfall is not possible. Ike is a large storm and Galveston is still well within the cone and the Hurricane Watch and everyone in the area should be taking appropriate action at this point.

Drawing straight lines between forecast points occasionally produces misleading results and I wish NHC could correct or note that somehow in their graphic.


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Robert
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84866 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:16 PM

Well Um Ike is in the process of being handed from one ridge to another. He is Headed NW soon to head WNW. Once ike gets under the new ridge and as the ridge axis moves bye to his north and east it should cause hime to tighten up and BAMM the winds will come up.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 11 2008 01:00 AM)


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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: Robert]
      #84870 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:01 AM

It appears that strengthening is continuing. A recent increase of convection near the eye - very cold cloud tops. It also looks like there is less dry air penetrating the storm. It will be interesting to see if the storm increases in size now that its cleared some of the dry air from its structure. Also, based on satellite imagery, looks like is slowing and making more of a westward jog. We'll have to see if that trend continues. Night ya'll from Tally.

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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: flahurricane]
      #84874 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:17 AM

Agreed. Doing what the NHC said it was going to do. On IR looks like the tight and small center circulation is now merging with the next layer out. Not sure if this is a typical ERC though. Still lots of dry air, and the convection on the west side is lacking. But Ike is huge, and not getting any smaller. As others have noted, this is a storm that will be studied for years to come.

Bill


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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Watches Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84877 - Thu Sep 11 2008 01:20 AM

Just a reminder to report your weather observations in the "Ike Conditions in Your Area" thread in the Storm Forum. A few earlier posts were moved there.
Thanks,
ED


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #84878 - Thu Sep 11 2008 05:20 AM

Since Ike is forecast to hit just west of Galveston Island, I thought these storm surge projections by Will Shaffer at the National Weather Service (produced/published by the Houston Chronicle) would be of interest to folks in the area.

As you can see by the link, they are talking about the potential of a 19' surge with a Cat 3 storm all the way up to the north end of Burnett Bay which is on the East side of Houston.

If you live in that area, be sure to read the comments in the linked blog above as the paper points to a map showing how far inland the surge will carry.



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Random Chaos
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84881 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:37 AM

It has begun. We have concentric eyewalls:

8nm
42nm

Here's the entire vortex:

URNT12 KNHC 111129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 11/11:02:20Z
B. 25 deg 20 min N
087 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2647 m
D. 59 kt
E. 229 deg 4 nm
F. 312 deg 070 kt
G. 226 deg 036 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 12 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. CO8-42

N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2309A IKE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NE QUAD 11:12:40 Z


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Raymond
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84884 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:55 AM

Things getting really weird with the core dynamics of Ike. In the vortex data message before then one shown above there had been two closed, concentric walls with 4 nm!! and 12 nm diameter. Must be very strange to fly through such a structure! Now we have to concentric walls with 9 and 42 nm diameter. May be the larger one will take over finally.
Otherwise basically nothing new regarding the central pressure, the winds and the overall asymetric structure of Ike.

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 07:56 AM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: Raymond]
      #84885 - Thu Sep 11 2008 08:04 AM

I saw that.

I was thinking one might be a typo, but a 4nm eye won't expand to an 8 nm eye unless the storm is doing some really weird dynamics (technically an eye can grow in size, but it requires time and generally a weakening storm; these reccos were too close together to indicate anything like that).

My guess is that the 4nm eye has dissipated and a 3rd, larger eyewall has since formed. I wonder if the first vortex might have better read something like 4nm, 12nm, and 40-some nm as a triple eyewall, since in an hour an eyewall won't just form, but the vortex recons don't allow for a triple eyewall scenario in their messages.

I'm personally thinking that with these multiple eyewalls forming is good for the development of the system (and bad for Texas). As each eyewall develops and contracts, the central pressure will fall and the winds will increase, consolidating this massive storm.

Ike has incredible energy - as evidenced by a huge swath of hurricane force winds - that it is desperately trying to organize. Eyewall cycles will help this.

I was half expecting last night that, based on Microwave, we might get a near 100nm eyewall forming, but the structure never finished closing off in the north. I suspect this same structure is what is now the 42nm eyewall, but without recent microwave data, there is no way to be sure.

Ever seen a category 2 go through eyewall cycles before? This storm is highly unusual.

--RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Sep 11 2008 08:08 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: Raymond]
      #84886 - Thu Sep 11 2008 08:16 AM

Quick, and not totally accurate formula for estimating surge height developed at LSU.
Pressure change from 1013mb divided by 4 equals approximate surge height.

1013mb-946mb= 16.75 feet of surge not including waves.

Significant Wave height formula for the average 1/3 of the waves is:
1013mb- 946mb=67 x 0.2= 13.4meters x 3.28 = 43.95 feet !!!

Pressure wind relationship for 946mb would be near 129mph at the surface... should Ike spin up~danielw


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Raymond
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84889 - Thu Sep 11 2008 09:26 AM

On the 11:31 UTC TMI pass you can partly see the two concentric eyewalls, but also the the band to the NE of the outer eyewall, where Recon found recently the highest flight level wind with 100 kt.



Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 09:27 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: Raymond]
      #84890 - Thu Sep 11 2008 09:39 AM

From the Lake Charles NWS Forecast Discussion:

...BUOY DATA IN THE GULF INDICATES THE 34KT WIND RADII IS VERY LARGE
WITH IKE AND EXTENDS OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE EYE. THIS GREAT EXPANSE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCHES FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS LATER TODAY. HIGHLY
CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL STORM SURGE AS IKE'S LARGE WIND FIELD
AND LENGTHY TIME OF ONSHORE FLOW COMBINE ALONG OUR COAST.


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HCW
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: danielw]
      #84892 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:23 AM

Hurricane warnings are now up from Baffin Bay to Morgan City , LA with TS warnings south to Brownsville TX

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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: HCW]
      #84893 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:36 AM

And Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended EASTward to the Coastal Waters off of Pensacola,FL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
903 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

.AT 800 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH OF THE
WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 11 2008 10:45 AM)


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HCW
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: danielw]
      #84894 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:11 AM

This is shocking

Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 120 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

Ike is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles...185 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 255 miles...410 km.

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pcola
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Re: Galveston Bay surge impact [Re: HCW]
      #84895 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:46 AM

amazing Ike's being felt here in pensacola...tides are way abouve average with warer on some coastal roads, and water from Pensacola Bay into some of the bayside parks..higher than I have seen in some storms that were much closer

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ShanaTX
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Ike size [Re: HCW]
      #84896 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:50 AM

I can't think of a storm where there were watches and warnings from Pensacola to Brownsville... at the same time,

It's hard to grasp the shear size of that!

Is Ike forecast to increase in size? Or will he get smaller if he ever spins up more?


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ike size [Re: ShanaTX]
      #84898 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:12 PM

I just heard an update for Jackson County, MS with an approaching squall line moving to the NW at 57 mph.

If the rain in that doesn't get you the wind will.!!!


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Ike size [Re: danielw]
      #84900 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:21 PM

Ike will be passing very close to Gulf buoy 42001 over the next several hours. Currently the buoy is about 70 miles WNW of the center of Ike (in the weakest part of the storm) is reporting sustained winds of 43 kts with gusts to 52 kts, along with 28 foot wave heights. There is also a ship report of sustained 52 kt winds about 150 miles north of the center:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4


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Raymond
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Re: Ike size [Re: danielw]
      #84901 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:28 PM

52 kt flight level wind just at the coast near Biloxi for the new AirForce-mission!

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Thunderbird12
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Re: Ike size [Re: Raymond]
      #84906 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:44 PM

It's a little tough to tell what is going on inside of Ike right now. It looks like part of the area inside the would-be outer eyewall has cleared out, but at least part of the inner eyewall is still firing up convection. Also, the convection is currently asymmetric with the western side much weaker looking overall than the eastern side. Hopefully the next recon mission can shed some light on what is going on.

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SeaMule
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Ike vs. Katrina [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84908 - Thu Sep 11 2008 12:58 PM

This is very disturbing from Dr. Masters:

"Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 9:30am EDT this morning, Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years."

With that...could we conclude we ain't seen nuttin yet? hope not.....but they are evacuating all of Galveston...


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Raymond
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Re: Ike size [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84909 - Thu Sep 11 2008 01:21 PM

It loks like, that the inner wall is detoriating. We`ll know more soon!
edit: The pressure gradient is very flat in the center and the central pressure is raising. Obviously an ERC is taking place!

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 01:35 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Ike size [Re: Raymond]
      #84910 - Thu Sep 11 2008 01:52 PM

I really dont see anything where IKE is more than a strong Cat 1 with winds 85-90mph. I think the HWRF has the right scale, maybe a Cat 2 @ landfall in 36-42hrs north of Corpus Christi.

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Raymond
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Re: Ike size [Re: scottsvb]
      #84911 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:02 PM

I agree, Ike is only a cat. 1. and I don´t see much chances for change of the overall structure of the storm, even if there is quite some time for change and even if an ERC takes place soon! Therefore I think, that we don´t see a landfall of a Major Hurricane!
There seem to be some signs for a ERC, as mentioned in my post above, but there is no confirmation in the vortex data message. They only talk about an eye open to the NW with a diameter of 8 nm.


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txcntrygrl
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84912 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:03 PM

I do not know much about how all of this is predicted. I am curious to know if there are any changes in that trough could the storm continue to go west and possibly enter places like Corpus Christi or the Rockport area?

Also will any of those locations experience hurricane strength winds even if the storm doesn't hit there?

Oh and can someone explain what can happen if there are two eye walls? Is that possible?

Edited by txcntrygrl (Thu Sep 11 2008 02:04 PM)


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Raymond
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: txcntrygrl]
      #84914 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:09 PM

Nothing is impossible, but it´s quite unlikely. that Ike makes landfall around Corpus Christy. For the first time the modells are in very good agreement about an landfall just a bit SW of the Houston-Galveston area.
For concentric multiple eyewalls and ERC`s read for instance here: ERC

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 02:13 PM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Wave heights [Re: Raymond]
      #84918 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:36 PM

I'm not a met so I can't properly interpret this work from OceanWeather but it sure looks like three states are going to be impacted by the storm surge. And I have to wonder reading the chart if what I see (35' - 40' wave heights at the center) is accurate. I went through Donna in Naples as a kid and I don't remember 35' wave heights.

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txcntrygrl
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84919 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:38 PM

If that front fizzles out or ends up going through and the storm is still taking its sweet time moving nwn could that change its path somewhat? I just want to make sure we are completely prepared. We live an hour inland from Corpus Christi and we boarded our home already.

On that Skeetobite map I have always depended on that darker green spaghetti strip because for the last several hurricanes it has come to be the closest in pointing out where these storms will hit.


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Geoff
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: txcntrygrl]
      #84921 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:46 PM

I know the Visible Loop can be deceiving, but it almost looks like Ike is following closer to the northern boundary of the cone than the middle. Is it possible that he is showing signs of beginning to make the turn?

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Raymond
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Geoff]
      #84922 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:52 PM

At least between the last two center fixes ( a three hour period) it moved more or less straight NW. But this may be due to the complex dynamics occuring in the core currently. We`ll see!

Edited by Raymond (Thu Sep 11 2008 02:52 PM)


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pcola
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84923 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:57 PM

Ike looks to be going NW and seems to be moving a bit faster...winds have increased here in Pensacola and flooding along the coast and bays continues

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kromdog
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: pcola]
      #84929 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:36 PM

91L looks like it may be trying to wind up a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


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jf
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: pcola]
      #84930 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:38 PM

Over the past two hours Ike appears to be moving NW. Has any new data come in too warrant such a directional change ?

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Raymond
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: jf]
      #84931 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:44 PM

See also my posting before!
Movement between last two center fixes ( 1-hour -period): accelatering to the WNW.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Raymond]
      #84933 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:57 PM

The last flight through the center (from NE to SW) indicated almost no sign of a inner wind max. The inner eyewall is still there, but it seems to be becoming a less dominant feature,

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cieldumort
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84935 - Thu Sep 11 2008 04:56 PM

Ike is encountering an unfavorably big wall of dry to very dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico again today, and this appears to be even more pronounced than the last two days.. probably just the result of subsidence on the western half exaggerating the already dry conditions in the area. Before Ike has a decent shot to complete an eyewall replacement cycle and ramp up the winds before landfall, it is becoming increasingly necessary for the upper-level outflow to improve in the west... as oceanic heat content will be less and less of a potential energizing influence, and the long feeder leg stretching all the way into the northwestern Caribbean keeps hoarding things to itself, helping to maintain the rather asymmetric nature of the hurricane.

In a way, Ike sort of resembles a tropical mirror-image version of those very large and deep extratropical cutoff lows found in the upper mid-latitudes around winter. It probably can't be over-emphasized that the two largest threats associated with this particularly odd hurricane are: 1) storm surge and 2) phenomenally widespread very strong to damaging winds. Storm surge is already occurring along southern Louisiana, including up to six feet of surge near New Orleans. Both the winds and the storm surge will start arriving way ahead of the center of circulation in this gargantuan cyclone, and while there is still a question as to whether or not Ike will ever develop a core of real Cat 2/3 or maybe even Cat 4 winds, there's little doubt about the potential for severe impacts from hour after hour after hour of pounding from even strong tropical storm force winds and very high seas.


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danielwAdministrator
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5 PM Discussion [Re: cieldumort]
      #84936 - Thu Sep 11 2008 04:59 PM

500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO
80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER
WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE
ARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.
AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO
ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.


BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/112051.shtml

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 11 2008 05:05 PM)


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Hurikid
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Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #84937 - Thu Sep 11 2008 05:28 PM

New vortex out

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 21:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 20:50:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°55'N 89°29'W (25.9167N 89.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 283 miles (455 km) to the S (173°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,702m (8,865ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 218° at 77kts (From the SW at ~ 88.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:54:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
UNABLE TO FIX SFC CNTR DUE TO UNDERCAST


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craigm
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Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #84939 - Thu Sep 11 2008 05:52 PM

Quote:

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.




Listening to an interview in Galveston on NPR on the way home -- High tide is already way above normal and minor street flooding is already occuring. This storm surge is going to be enormous. They also went on to say that some people are not evacuating the island because of the memories of Rita where many got stranded on the Highway and the storm missed them.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: craigm]
      #84940 - Thu Sep 11 2008 06:29 PM

Just a note,

Mult-Coverage TV Adjusted: http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html

Recordings:

(Animation)


flhurricae Webcam recordings (will be turned on/off frequency adjusted as needed):

Spot Cam/Galveston Spot Beach Cam - Commodore Cam - Commodore Surf Cam/Galveston - Palacios Bay Cam
(Let us know if you know of other good views)


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LoisCane
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Re: 5 PM Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #84944 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:58 PM

It's important to focus on the whole storm in ways and not just the center. As much as the point where it makes landfall will have the strongest weather this storm will influence the weather from areas much further away than normal. Water has piled into the Gulf from days of him moving slowly since he left Cuba. When water piles and hits an immovable object (the coast) it causes flooding even if the center of the storm is far to the west closer to Houston.

Also, every once in a while he jogs north before continuing on WNW and think that needs to be remembered as if he continues to do that or does it at landfall he could seriously impact the SW Louisiana area and there has been so much emphasis in the news on Houston which is his most likely target I wouldn't want the low lying area of the Texas/LA border to not be prepared for him to come in to the east of Houston. Probably won't happen but people should understand it can happen. If Ike took the left/easten side of the cone he would infact come in around the border not Houston even though...he probably will affect Houston.

Lastly even though he could ramp up before landfall... remember he is a 100mph storm with the strong winds concentrated in a small area and that massive cloud mass you see on sats is filled with lower, tropical storm force winds and high surf.

He's one to watch til the last minute, beautiful on satellite imagery but not as charming up close and personal.

Don't fall prey to hype, what he is..is enough, he isn't the Great 1900 Galveston Hurricane and today we are properly warned far in advance.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84948 - Thu Sep 11 2008 09:29 PM

Ike's 100 mph sustained might yet only be located in a few small portions, but these have not been at his center, or necessarily even near the center - additionally, Ike has had a very wide windfield. Ike's windfield is now larger than that of Hurricane Katrina's, with hurricane-force winds out to 125 or so miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds out to 275 miles from the center.

According to Dr. Lyons, Ike might be one of largest hurricanes ever tacked in the Gulf of Mexico. From just the looks of it, this certainly makes sense. And, per the experimental Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) based storm surge potential model developed by Dr. Mark Powell of HRD, Hurricane Ike may have hit numbers on that experimental scale suggesting potential for creating storm surge slightly higher than even that of historic hurricanes Katrina and Wilma.

Ike is a massive tropical cyclone that appears to also now be coming into a slightly more favorable environment for further strengthening, and official forecasts still call for Ike to make landfall as a gargantuan Category 3. Even if not making landfall at Cat 3, Ike's storm surge potential will continue to be easily one, and perhaps even two, full category/ies above whatever Saffir-Simpson category he ends up as at landfall.


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Rasvar
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: cieldumort]
      #84950 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:05 PM

One thing I do have to wonder about is if Ike will also maintain higher wind speeds for a much longer period of time inland due to his current spread out structure. Once Ike is near the frontal boundary, I think we may see an incredible swath of severe weather over a couple of days. If there is a silver lining, Ike won't be moving slowly. I shudder to think the amount of precipitation a storm like Ike could drop if he was moving at the speed of Fay or Gustav.

We may see the largest amount of destruction to a power grid in some time. Not too mention a major disruption to transportation networks. Ike's impact will be felt outside the area.

--------------------
Jim


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shewtinstar
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Rasvar]
      #84951 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:08 PM

I was thinking the same thing. When he is inland, a lot of states are going to feel the wrath. And with him moving fast inland he will not have time to unwind...so all the states in his way are going to get high winds and tornadoes. How do you evacuate from a storm this big????

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Rasvar]
      #84952 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:14 PM

Quote:

One thing I do have to wonder about is if Ike will also maintain higher wind speeds for a much longer period of time inland due to his current spread out structure.




All three newscasts in the area just reported that they expect to see where Ike lands no less than sustained 100 mph winds for 4 - 8 hours, and possibly higher sustained wind speed. I would suggest if they are correct that a significant portion of the power grid will be out for some time.


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LoisCane
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84953 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:23 PM

Note the NHC's takes Ike far inland rather fast and turns it into NW Louisiana and into Arkansas. As he hits land the banding will be massive on radar and there will be severe weather far inland.

One of my pet peeves is the NHC deals with landfall and the media hypes the beach towns but towns far inland will have inland flooding (especially in areas with bayous and rivers) and electric will be affected not just in Houston but to the areas inland people are evacuating to most likely.

Once inland the NWS takes over with giving local information to all the towns and...

The hurricane does not stop at landfall, though his winds may die down some his circulation spins and creates havoc.

So... just concerned that people be aware if they are evacuating from Houston in areas that do not need to be evacuated from homes that are well built with proper shutters and all the tie down straps tied down that by evacuating further north they will be further inland but they will still be possibly affected by power outages and other storm related problems.

Austin is good, Austin is better but you may also lose power in Austin or anywhere to the east of Austin. This storm is massive and the more damage over a large area (fallen trees, electric wires down, localized flooding) will take that much longer to put back the infrastructure.

Wilma in Miami was such a storm as FPL's answer was that so many people across such a large area were without electric and they had to basically rebuild the grid and fix substations across a large area.

something to think on..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84954 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:30 PM

Unless Ike becomes much stronger than it is now, I doubt anyone inland will see 100 mph sustained winds for any length of time. The maximum sustained wind estimates are usually only valid over water and are hardly ever observed by surface-based instruments. More likely would be a prolonged period of 60-80 mph winds, which would still create plenty of damage and havoc when it comes to trees and power lines.

I am skeptical that Ike will become much stronger than it is now. It still has around 24 hours over the Gulf and outflow is improving, but Ike's inner organization is a mess (compared to typical hurricanes) and large storms with poorly defined inner cores usually struggle to intensify.

Ike is still a huge threat even if it does not intensify. Even if it does not produce catastrophic damage in any one area, it is likely to at least produce significant damage over an unusually large area. I don't think anyone knows exactly what to expect from the storm surge out of a storm like this, but it could be pretty bad.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84958 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:41 PM

02:26:30Z
26.233N 90.317W
953.6 mb(~ 28.16 inHg)

URNT12 KNHC 120239
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 12/02:25:40Z
B. 26 deg 16 min N
090 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 2714 m
D. 68 kt
E. 312 deg 48 nm
F. 063 deg 089 kt
G. 312 deg 055 nm
H. 956 mb
I. 13 C/ 3043 m
J. 16 C/ 3045 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 3009A IKE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NW QUAD 02:06:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 313 / 28NM


Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 11 2008 10:44 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: danielw]
      #84959 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:46 PM

And no eye detected on that vortex recon. 953mb with no eye. Wow. Ok...so how long before an eye reforms?

The only evidence of an eye structure is a huge 1.5 degree wide structure way out in the storm, as seen via microwave:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/AT...N-899W.85pc.jpg

I'm not even going to try and pretend I know what this structure means in terms of a storm. I've never seen anything like it in a tropical system.

--

This bouy has recently passed right near the core of Ike - take a look at wave and wind graphs: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

It is located 50 miles ESE of the last vortex recon, and within 9 miles of one of the low pressure points recorded by the NOAA plane not sending out vortex recons.

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Sep 11 2008 11:00 PM)


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amazon
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84960 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:55 PM

Looking at the Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation I don't see how Ike is going to turn northward until it gets to west central Texas. That frontal area and digging trough have been stationary or only slowly moving east for the last few days. Why does the NHC see it making a beeline nnw once it makes landfall?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84961 - Thu Sep 11 2008 11:26 PM

Jim Cantore said there was a slight hint of an Eye forming on the satellite views about 2 hours ago.

It can be seen on the Weather Channel's "dreamsicle" enhancement in the lower right corner. Vague hint of a small Eye.

Using the last two VORTEX positions. They line out at 294degrees at 60sm. Extrapolating that heading out... At this time... 11:23pm EDT would send Ike ashore at Port Lavaca. Which I believe is the location Jim Cantore is broadcasting from.
Hypothetical 100sm radius of hurricane winds would extend from Port Lavaca southward to Kingsville and Northward to the western tip of Galveston Island.

Note: the above is purely a hypothetical track based on the last two Recon center positions.
Please consult your local NWS Office for Statements, Watches and Warnings for Official Hurricane Products.~danielw


http://www.srh.noaa.gov


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SeaMule
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heading more west cause [Re: danielw]
      #84963 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:13 AM

who knows, huh?

just goes to show us.....lot to learn.....why hasn't this exploded to a cat 3 or something like that? Because the power of the hurricane has been washed out via a large powerful radii of windfield. The waters just aren't warm enough to get it to a cat 3 cause of the kinetic energy of all that wind...and all that wind has to be incorporated in the final analysis... Had it been an Andrew.....small buzz saw...perhaps a 4. but the storm exploded in surface area, and therefore...needed a correspondingly large area of energy and heat....and it just wasn't there....

Katrina had much higher heat content in the ocean...

my take on it.....

oh, and why going more west? it isn't spinning like a top......it;s more of a blob.....so the coriolis effect isn't as strong.....

need a few mets to straighten out my thinking......


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danielwAdministrator
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Uhh Ohh [Re: danielw]
      #84964 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:16 AM

Latest dropsonde from the Max Wind Band. Don't know if it's enough to bring Ike to a Cat 3 or not.
Looks like it might.

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
981mb (Surface) 100° (from the E) 95 knots (109 mph)
972mb 100° (from the E) 98 knots (113 mph)
958mb 100° (from the E) 94 knots (108 mph)
949mb 100° (from the E) 105 knots (121 mph)
943mb 100° (from the E) 103 knots (119 mph)
929mb 110° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
919mb 110° (from the ESE) 108 knots (124 mph)
901mb 115° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
877mb 120° (from the ESE) 104 knots (120 mph)
867mb 120° (from the ESE) 110 knots (127 mph)
850mb 125° (from the SE) 111 knots (128 mph)
696mb 135° (from the SE) 94 knots (108 mph)

HDOB Extrapolated pressure in Center 951.7 mb(~ 28.10 inHg)

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 12 2008 12:19 AM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Certain death... [Re: danielw]
      #84965 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:29 AM

I don't ever recall hearing such a strongly worded warning from the NHC:

Quote:

Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night....




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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Certain death... [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84966 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:35 AM

URNT12 KNHC 120422 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 12/04:09:00Z
B. 26 deg 17 min N
090 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2697 m
D. 74 kt
E. 048 deg 64 nm
F. 132 deg 098 kt
G. 048 deg 059 nm
H. 956 mb
I. 12 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 3009A IKE OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 03:52:20 Z


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Uhh Ohh [Re: danielw]
      #84967 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:36 AM

Using the surface wind they might bring it up to Cat II, but remember this statement in the morning discussion:

"DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS
MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE."

Ike is probably the closest thing to a subtropical hurricane (which doesn't exist in the tropical descriptions) that you'll ever see.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84968 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:40 AM

That has to be the longest, most spine chilling Hurricane Local Statement that I've read.
It is worse than the Katrina Statement issued by Slidell in 2005.

For those in the Coastal Counties of Texas here is the link to the latest Hurricaen Local Statement from the Galveston NWS Office:

Please heed ALL of the warnings and advice!~danielw

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

All Hurricane Local Statements for Hurricane IKE
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 12 2008 12:42 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Certain death... [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #84969 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:46 AM

Any low lying storm surge potential areas will be suseptical to deadly conditions. The NHC wants to make that clear! Anyways, I still dont think IKE will be more than a Cat 2 or winds of 105-110mph. The reason is what I said above. The Storm is just too big. The NHC wont mention this until after landfall probably but are still going with a Cat 3 just incase.

Now let me give you a example with the storm size and why its not getting stronger. If you would fill up your sink with water. Put your finger in the sink and spin it around "almost" near the edge of the water at a moderate rotation, see how the water spins. Now do the same thing with the water only half that full. You can
see the water turning quicker 'Even Though' your moving it as the same speed before. Its harder for a storm thats bigger in size to adjust a tight inner core of winds. The winds on a bigger storm are expanded more away from the COC. A smaller storm would mean a tighter spin with the same pressure drop.

Anyways Cat 2 landfall near Matagorda Tx in 24-30 hrs.!

Scottsvb


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flahurricane
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Re: Certain death... [Re: scottsvb]
      #84970 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:51 AM

Scott, it looks like Ike is shedding some of the dry air and recon is finding stronger winds in the NE quad. I think we'll have a Cat 3 in the morning.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: danielw]
      #84971 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:51 AM

I've never in my life seen any government agency, much less the NWS, say that if you don't heed the evacuation orders, you face certain death. Ike is one of the most fascinating storms I have ever witnessed.

Just a general question, proportional to the available heat content of the water and obviously the amount of water and free space, how does Ike relate to the largest cyclones ever recorded? I have to imagine this is the largest tropical cyclone on record to ever be in the Gulf of Mexico.

I am in Sarasota on the water now and I've noticed that the water level crested at one point yesterday at about half a foot to 9 inches below the top of our sea wall (I am at New College of Florida in Sarasota). I've honestly have never seen a storm that has produced this large a change in tide level all the way around the gulf coast. (Did Katrina? My power was knocked out so I don't really remember hearing about abnormal tide levels throughout the entire Gulf coast.)

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #84972 - Fri Sep 12 2008 12:57 AM

Houston/Galveston PORTS, NOAA/NOS at 11:42 pm CDT September 11, 2008
--------------- TIDES ------------------------------- CURRENTS ----------------
Morgans Point 2.0 ft.,Falling: Morgans Point 0.0 kts.(S), 128°T
Eagle Point 2.7 ft.,Rising : Houston Ship Chan 0.4 kts.(F), 269°T
Pier 21 3.0 ft. :
North Jetty 3.6 ft.,Rising : (F)lood,(S)lack,(E)bb,towards °True
Pleasure Pier 3.8 ft. :-------------------Salinity---S.G.--W.Temp
: Morgans Point 22.1 psu 1.013 85°F
: Eagle Point 19.3 psu 1.011 85°F
: North Jetty 32.6 psu 1.021 85°F
: Pleasure Pier 85°F
--- METEOROLOGICAL ----- Wind Speed/Dir ------------- Air Pressure -- Air Temp
Morgans Point 12 knots from NE , gusts to 15 1010 mb,Rising 83°F
Eagle Point 19 knots from NE , gusts to 23 1009 mb,Steady 84°F
North Jetty 20 knots from NNE, gusts to 23 1008 mb,Steady 78°F
Pleasure Pier 12 knots from NNE, gusts to 16 1007 mb,Steady 84°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For more information, go to https://corms.nos.noaa.gov/instrument_status.html

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ports_screens/hgscreen.shtml

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ports_d...tem&port=hg

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 12 2008 12:59 AM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: danielw]
      #84973 - Fri Sep 12 2008 01:01 AM

General storm reference for tide and wave heights:

Coastal Waters: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IKE.html
Buoys: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4


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cieldumort
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: MikeC]
      #84974 - Fri Sep 12 2008 04:02 AM

Ike is clearly pulling itself together tonight. Recent SFMR surface estimates and flight-level winds, combined with a partial eyewall redeveloping - improving internal structure, overall, and especially concerning the central core, suggests that Ike may finally be successfully transforming back into more of a classic tropical cyclone, at least for now. All of this considered together could very well indicate that an increase in the advisory wind speed to Cat 3 is on the way by mid-morning.

It would seem that Ike has taken advantage of improving outflow to its west and northwest, while a very long feeder leg that had been conspiring with everything else to keep the cyclone pretty asymmetrical , has finally broken free of its Caribbean connection, and become just another one of the outer bands.

Over the past five hours or so it looks like Ike has been moving a bit on the western side of WNW. The most recent center fix might indicate a resumption of a more northwesterly track, or it could just be a wobble while this reorganization takes place. The 4AM CDT cone probably won't change much, if at all, and the exact point of landfall doesn't really matter as much as which side of the eye ones location is likely to be on (the heavy surge/strongest winds/ "dirty" right front quadrant, or the sometimes drier/less windy left front).


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Raymond
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Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued [Re: cieldumort]
      #84975 - Fri Sep 12 2008 04:44 AM

I basically agree with you, but I see the outer ring as the main player. Inside this outer ring there are only tropical storm force winds and no wind maximum associated with the rests of the old, tight inner core.
I wouldn´t see such a rapid intensification process, but the pressure drop in the last two hours is frightening: 957,5 to 950,7 hPa (I use the HDOB-data here!).


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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #84977 - Fri Sep 12 2008 04:58 AM

I was interested to compare Ike to Katrina at the same sort of point in their lives:


Katrina on 29th Aug


Ike 12th September

I've had my eye on Ike since he was a TD. I imagine one reason the NHC is stating the warnings so strongly is because he is only Cat 2, and so people may not take him so seriously as a Cat 4/5.

Good luck to everyone who is going to be affected...


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Hurricane Local Statement for IKE [Re: UKCloudgazer]
      #84982 - Fri Sep 12 2008 08:15 AM

Whoops...off to new thread! Mike posted a new news thread while I was writing this.

--

Original post, which I moved there:

In confirmation with SFMR readings, buoy 42361 (a Shell Oil rig) is measuring 99kt winds 50 miles NNE from the last center fix of Ike. Anemometer is at 122m above the surface, so this isn't really true surface winds.

All data: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

Wind Graph: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?s...;time_label=CDT

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Sep 12 2008 08:17 AM)


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