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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again
      #85108 - Sat Sep 20 2008 10:12 AM

It's been over a week since Hurricane Ike made landfall in Texas and it's been relatively quiet in the tropics. However, 93L in the eastern Caribbean may form over the next few days. Convection is higher on the eastern side of the system. It has about a 50/50 shot of developing.. It would likely affect Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (again).



Beyond that a few waves off Africa have an outside chance of developing later. But most of next week will likely be slow as well, with things perhaps gradually getting more active. (But not nearly as active is the past several weeks)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

93L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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lawgator
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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85109 - Sat Sep 20 2008 11:17 AM

FYI, I think you may have put up the wrong graphic for the spaghetti model for 93L. Seems to be for a different storm because when I pull up the models from the tagged link, as opposed to the graphic, its completely different.

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KikiFla
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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: lawgator]
      #85111 - Sat Sep 20 2008 12:30 PM

I think that is an old model plot for Ike when it was near the Turks and Caicos...

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cosmicstorm
Registered User


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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85113 - Sat Sep 20 2008 01:16 PM

Actually, I think it was the model runs for the remnents of what had been Josephine. At any rate that graphic is in need of an update. The links are accurate to SFWMD plots. This new area has an increased probability of forming according to the NHC as upper level winds are expected to become more favorable over the next few days. I was enjoying the break in the tropics.

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ltpat228
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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: cosmicstorm]
      #85115 - Sat Sep 20 2008 01:50 PM

The below link is directly from Skeetobite's web site displaying 93L.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93&a=2


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k___g
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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85117 - Sat Sep 20 2008 02:36 PM

It's been a nice break since Ike, however things seem to be ramping back up once again. There is a lot of convection in the tropics that will need to be watched, as conditions become more favorable for development.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85118 - Sat Sep 20 2008 07:14 PM

The model plot on the Main Page has been corrected.
Thanks,
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85121 - Sun Sep 21 2008 07:28 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W TO CURACAO AND THEN INTO NERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-68W...INCLUDING THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 21 2008 07:30 AM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: danielw]
      #85122 - Sun Sep 21 2008 07:50 AM

Radar imagery out of PR would seem to indicate that there may be a circulation centre south of St Croix, moving slowly north or north-northwest.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Rich B]
      #85124 - Sun Sep 21 2008 10:49 AM

Quote:

Radar imagery out of PR would seem to indicate that there may be a circulation centre south of St Croix, moving slowly north or north-northwest.




Satellite imagery would seem to indicate that the circulation is still not very organized overall, though, with a lot of westerly or southwesterly shear. In fact, I'd say that the radar shows only a very broad circulation (not enough for NHC to pull the trigger, I don't believe). Recon will tell the tail this afternoon - I'd definately say it's organized enough to go ahead with the flight, even if its not yet a depression.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Hugh]
      #85125 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:01 AM

Where is the center is the question? There is a low level center and a mid level center and it hasn't pulled together yet clearly that I can see though recon may solve that problem.

Next problem.. it's moving very slowly, really just hanging there and going to give prolonged rain totals to PR and other areas already hard hit.

I would think the longer it sits there (and it's forecast not to move fast) the further west it will creep with the lower level flow.

Can see pre-banding going on... I'll give it an A for putting on a real show but for actual strength... a C-.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: LoisCane]
      #85126 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:06 AM

The NHC has (30 minutes ago) issued a STDS... saying that a tropical depression could form at any time. Per the STDS, recon is now on the way, so the first advisory should be issued on TD 11 by 2pm, I'd say.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Hugh]
      #85127 - Sun Sep 21 2008 12:42 PM

Well... we'll see. Gonna watch. It's a big system even if you can't find it's center well.

And... even moving northwest/north it will bring heavy weather to areas already hurting.

Thanks for update.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85128 - Sun Sep 21 2008 01:48 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1217 PM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

.UPDATE...DISTURBED WEATHER AFFECTING THE NE CARIB REGION THE PAST
24 HOURS OR SO AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SW TO NE AREA OF ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
AND OVAL IN SHAPE... WITH STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTING VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN A CLUSTER OF TSTORMS INVOF 17N 66.3W.

THIS FEATURE HAS DRIFTED SSW DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... BUT WITH
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NOW SUGGESTING A MORE NE MOTION AND
ELONGATION OF THE RAINBANDS THAT WERE DEVELOPING AROUND THIS
APPARENT LOW.
TUTT LOW TO THE NNW OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIFTING SLOWLY NW AND ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO RELAX... AND BANDING ON THE E SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUS
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ON ITS WAY TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON
STLT SIGNALS AND DOPPLER WINDS I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT THE HURRICANE RECON FLIGHT FINDS 35 KNOT WINDS AT 5-8K FT
BETWEEN SE PUERTO RICO AND ST CROIX. REGARDLESS OF WIND
STRENGTH... THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE E AND SE SECTIONS OF PR AND FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... AND A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT N FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THIS ELONGATED
TROUGHING REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE... AND MID
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING INTO SE CARIB UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH OR LOW MAY THEN LINGER ACROSS THE ATLC WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY... AND COULD
PROLONG THIS RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THUS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sorry about the length... lots of info.~danielw


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Hurikid
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: LoisCane]
      #85129 - Sun Sep 21 2008 02:28 PM

Recon inside "tropical disturbance" now. Finding FL winds of 47 mph and they're not flying THAT high. It might def. be our next tropical storm by tonight if not by 5 p.m. or even inbetween now and 5

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k___g
Weather Guru


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: danielw]
      #85130 - Sun Sep 21 2008 02:37 PM

Looks as if this system is trying to get going. Conditions are favorable for further development. The good news for us in the US, is that, given the current conditions, it should move north and be a fish spinner.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: k___g]
      #85131 - Sun Sep 21 2008 02:54 PM

No, that isn´t correct. All modells turn it NW later on in the forecast period and show a landfall in North Carolina or more to the north in about 6 days. The hurricane modells forecast a cat. 1-2 with central pressure around 970 hPa.

Edited by Raymond (Sun Sep 21 2008 02:55 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Posts: 489
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85132 - Sun Sep 21 2008 03:01 PM

Interesting timing on all those mid-Atlantic/NE landfall, as today is the 70th anniversary of the 1938 Long Island Express which killed 500 people.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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BillD
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Hurikid]
      #85135 - Sun Sep 21 2008 05:39 PM

Quote:

Recon inside "tropical disturbance" now. Finding FL winds of 47 mph and they're not flying THAT high. It might def. be our next tropical storm by tonight if not by 5 p.m. or even inbetween now and 5


Not yet, still no low level circulation. From the STDS issued at 4:15 (see the top page for full text):

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

Bill


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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85136 - Sun Sep 21 2008 05:46 PM

The mid level center is over Puerto Rico. So it´s a bit complex, to define it and to find a closed low level circulation. Recon found 41 kt at the flight level to the SE. The meteorological conditions for developement are quite good. So I guess we`ll get the first warnings, if we have a well defined center over water to the north of Puerto Rico.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85137 - Sun Sep 21 2008 07:10 PM

The 18Z GFS has moved quite a bit to the right, but I don't think we'll get a reliable model until the storm is better developed.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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M.A.
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85138 - Sun Sep 21 2008 08:19 PM

The outflow is starting to become impressive. I do agree that the mid level circulation seems to be over PR. I am starting to see what looks to be a lower level spin developing east of PR and slightly north. The envelope is quite large so to try and pinpoint a spot at this time is senseless. Overall it is looking quite healthy this evening. Just when we were starting to enjoy the peaceful tropics...

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metwannabe
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: M.A.]
      #85139 - Sun Sep 21 2008 09:14 PM

Low shear, great outflow and big blow up of convection. Looking at PR radar loop very difficult to see any LLC at this time. As soon as a LLC closes off this certainly has the potential to develop quickly. Model outputs are interesting to look at but not really any help until they have more info and a definate center to work with. And where that center developes, south of PR, east or north will have huge implications on eventual track, not to mention how slowly that occurs. Is it just me or does it seem there have been numerous systems this year that had good mid level circulation but took some time for the LLC to develop and get under that mid level?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: metwannabe]
      #85140 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:35 PM

Looks much better tonight. Looks more like a TS than a depression.. Why? banding features, consolidation of color would indicate there is a LLC there.

This morning it looked like maybe it would be a depression... tonight it looks like a different story.

We should know in the morning.

Suppose it's another system with too many centers trying to get one to take over..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85141 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:46 PM

Looks to have three different circulations.

Cyclonic low level... to the west of the radar site.

Cyclonic Mid level... to the S of the radar.

Cyclonic upper level... well to the East of the radar, OR anticyclonic circulation to the west of the radar at upper levels which would be more conducive to strengthening.

Top two levels appear to be connected to the remaining flow from the TUTT off to the NW of the system.



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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: danielw]
      #85142 - Mon Sep 22 2008 09:39 AM

The circulation of future Kyle is still ill defined. The Mid-LC left the northwestern tip of Puerto Rico recently on a NW-track. Developement in the near future will be slow until the system pulls itself together. The hurricane modells show then a continuous, slow development on a NNW-N-track till landfall in Delaware in about 5 days as a 960 hPa-hurricane. GFDL isn´t much south of New York for landfall!
I wouldn´t be very surprised of another US-landfall this year with all this land seeking storms!
Will become an interesting week!


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ftlaudbob
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85143 - Mon Sep 22 2008 10:08 AM

As is said in here often,the models are not accurate until it becomes a storm.It is not even a TD yet.The model runs mean close to nothing at this point.IF it does become a TS it could go anywhere.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #85144 - Mon Sep 22 2008 10:59 AM

Yes, there is quite some uncertainty at this point. But it´s a very good bet to set on a general northward movement and at least some developement. If there will be a US landfall or it stays a fish spinner is completely open.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85147 - Mon Sep 22 2008 02:06 PM

If 93L does develop, its track evolution will be complicated by an upper-level low that is forecast to develop offshore of the Carolinas and then drift westward. It's eventual movement would then depend on how strong it gets, whether or not the upper-system tries to develop a surface low of its own, and how far west the upper sytem actually moves.

Right now, 93L is still pretty disorganized, with an apparent surface center over the far eastern Dominican Republic, a possible mid-level circulation south of Puerto Rico, and who knows what going on underneath the strongest convection to the south of those regions. The current recon mission seems to be focusing on the surface center. NHC has downgraded the potential for tropical cyclone development from high to medium. Any significant development may have to wait until the current surface center moves away from Hispaniola, or otherwise reforms in an area closer to the deep convection.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #85148 - Mon Sep 22 2008 04:09 PM

Yes, recon and surface ovbservations prove, that there is a closed surface circulation over the eastern tip of Hispaniola and recon found estimated surface winds around 40 kt. So does this mean, we have a TS by definition also in the face of the poor organization on the other side!?

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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85149 - Mon Sep 22 2008 07:48 PM

Deep convection blowing up over the closed circulation on the east end of DR. If this continues and it can shift north just a bit should have TS within 24 hours. With the LLC developing further west I would think that this would probably cause a shift westward in the track projections. People who are not used to having to deal with TC need to start paying attention, interesting week ahead.

Still strong potential for a low to form off coast of Carolina's, whether this is just a strong Nor'easter or subtropical in nature is still up in the air. How strong it is and it's exact track will have effect on 93L.

Next 48 hours could see some, if not rare, certainly seldom seen weather systems on the eastern seaboard.

Some models take a hurricane into NYC!!

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85150 - Mon Sep 22 2008 07:53 PM

Very complicated indeed.

A strong mid-level that is doing one thing and a small lcc that seems to be doing something else. Like many developing systems there is a turf war going on and one will win out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

Having a problem with the models until this clears up. General track yes but it would have to be adjusted depending on where the real center is..

Either way... it's dropping 20 plus inches of rain on PR and recon found winds of Tropical storm intensity... with or without a name that's a whole lot of weather!

Kyle like the rest of this season's storms is taking it's own sweet time!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Storms' Future Movement [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #85152 - Tue Sep 23 2008 06:31 AM

I don't mean to burst your bubble about this storm's future movement, but if this storm becomes Kyle and gains organization vertically there is absolutely no way that this storm can approach the United States given the upper level winds at this time and a longwave trough in the position it is in over the Eastern US. Steering currents don't support the system moving west which is its best hope to maintain itself structurally. Right now there is very little real estate for this storm to find a favorable upper air environment.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 370
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85153 - Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM Attachment (239 downloads)

Attached is last night's 23_00Z 200mb Analysis and please note the subtropical jet maxima and location of longwave trough. There are many examples of storm acquiring tropical storm status the moment a closed surface center is found. I have no way of knowing if what I'm looking at is a depression or a storm but it does look pretty darn good on satellite at the moment and some really cold tops. It wouldn't be hard to argue that the system is reorganizing itself farther south and this storm has any chance of maintaining itself struturally that is where it needs to be. As I said in a previous post; right now there is absolutely no way this system can encroach the US, not with that big longwave trough where it current is and the subrtopical jet maxima over the gulf coast. and up the eastern US coast. It would have to remain a shallow system to have any chance at all moving west where the upper air is favorable for development but once it gains vertical structure it can either remain stationary, or move north. That said, a few days from now things can change, Kyle is going to be much like Hanna; tough tough upper air environment.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by AlaberryPatch (Tue Sep 23 2008 06:47 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85156 - Tue Sep 23 2008 08:43 AM

Several questions:

Is is just me, or does the center of 93 now look to be well south of the DR?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Is there any possibility that the low to form off SC could be tropical...all the current discussion is all about a northeaster.

What impact does the strength of the SC low have on the track of 93? Seems that a weaker storm would have less influence.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85157 - Tue Sep 23 2008 08:58 AM

Yes, the low level center was pulled southward under the heaviest convection. Las Americas at the dominican south coast has had east winds since some hours. So it looks like that LLC and Upper levels come together to the south of Hispaniola. Will be interesting to the the response during the next hours. Convection looks impressive in the moment. Things are very complex with week steering currents for the next day and the closeness to Hispaniola in the short term and aren´t less complex in the longer term with the developing low close to the Carolinas.
All modells show a threat for the US Coast northward of Delaware, whatever should arrive there in 4-5 days.

Do we have a weather radar for the Dominican Republic?

Edited by Raymond (Tue Sep 23 2008 09:05 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85158 - Tue Sep 23 2008 12:04 PM

93L is getting better organized south of D.R. still though a North movement is expected to begin later tonight into Weds with a NNE trend to it along the cold front. A path more North is expect along days 3-4 before a turn back NE into the westerlys. I doubt this will make a landfall in the U.S. though Cape Cod has the best chance.

93L hasnt moved S or west as alot have speculated. It's just reorganizing over the water south of the D.R. As 93L gets better organized, it will get pulled NNE.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85162 - Tue Sep 23 2008 12:58 PM

"Right now there is very little real estate for this storm to find a favorable upper air environment. "

IF that is true and it probably is... he will drift west, move slowly west or wnw until things improve. I think he is close to losing his ticket out of town. The old models had him way north of where he was supposed to be moving very slowly into the Bahamas and towards his path between Florida and the Bahamas with his date with the Noreaster.

Garbage in..garbage out.

Think the NHC is going to have to deal with what is..and that appears to me the storm wrapping around the old mid-level center which was furthest to the south.

It could pull north but its going to be much further to the west than expected.

We don't always get what we expect from the models in the tropical prediction.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Raymond
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85163 - Tue Sep 23 2008 01:27 PM

I would say, that in the next 24 hours it could drift to the west south of Hispaniola. The stronger it gets, the more it will feel the northward pull of the upper low near the Carolinas then. Ther is a very small chance, if it stays rather weak, that it lingers around in weak steering currents in the Caribbean. In the moment I would still go with the northward movement beginning in 24-36 hours or may be even earlier.

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berrywr
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85170 - Wed Sep 24 2008 01:37 AM

Raymond's analysis is correct as long as this system remains "shallow". It's 24/0534Z and I just got home from work so I'm just now looking at the data for this evening. It's a broad circulation on satellite but not as organized as it was 24 hours ago. I'll post as soon as I look at all the new data from the 00Z.

Edited to include 24/00Z analysis:

24/00Z – 850mb analysis shows a closed high over NY state with a SW axis extending into TX this evening. Old frontal boundaries with lows are off the Eastern US coast extending SSW into the FL straits. 700mb analysis shows position of high over E Michigan and upper lows 300 miles east of Charleston, SC and over central Cuba. 500mb analysis shows closed upper low just south of Cape Hatteras and 589 decameter high over Indiana with an axis extending to a 590 decamter high the TX/LA border with slight height falls south of the upper low suggesting slight deepening. At 300mb upper low is either barely closed or open waved over E NC and difluence taking shape over the Atlantic Ocean near 25N 78W. 30 and 40 decamter height falls are noted over S FL. 200mb analysis this evening continues to show a deep longwave trough extending southward right along the eastern US to just off the FL coast and southward into the Carribbean. Winds are totally hostile above 25N latitude in the GOM and Atlantic Ocean off the coast of FL becoming much lighter east of 75W longitude and north-south axis of shortwave ridge at 68W. An approach to the SE US and GOM is impossible at this time. Water Vapor loop this evening shows E US longwave trough continuing to amply southward with strong subsidence and dry air well into FL which are reflected by height falls on upper air charts this evening. At this time, cyclogenesis is taken shape off the NC coast with with northerly winds aloft over the Caribbean extending from upper high 200 miles south of Brownsville, TX right along the MX coast. Closed upper low spinning about 600 miles ENE of system appears to be slowly moving NNW in last couple of frames. As for the system itself; there is no westward component to movement whatsoever and in fact it does have the organization it had 24 hours ago. Looking at model data from NCEP – Developing low pressure center along front as discussed in satellite analysis is taking shape and with diving trough into FL, will support low pressure system moving a bit unorthodox for a few days before moving up the coast as an extratropical cyclone. Gurus over at HPC believe system won’t be over water or be in the area long enough to develop subtropical or tropical characteristics. The fly in the ointment is what is likely to become Kyle. Upper air is forecast to become pretty straightforward with a trough along the east coast and a ridge over the Atlantic. It can’t be ruled out that the systems won’t merge down the road but and I’m not about going to speculate when and where at Day 5, but there is no threat to the SE US in this forecast cycle. Either Kyle stays up under that ridge or Kyle won’t survive and there is little room for it to operate at this time.

The upper air package is available at http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/nwsfax.html.

Microsoft Office Picture Manager or Windows Image Viewer will open these charts.

Edited by AlaberryPatch (Wed Sep 24 2008 02:48 AM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85171 - Wed Sep 24 2008 02:52 AM

I see no evidence of a westward component to movement at this time. Upper low to the systems ENE and deep longwave trough to its NW and evolving cyclogenesis (extratropical low) off the Mid Atlantic and upper high south of TX and northerly winds aloft imply either a stationary movement or a slow trek north until an upper ridge becomes established east of the track and trough to the west; like Hanna. It's a mess upstairs right now with so many players involved.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85172 - Wed Sep 24 2008 03:00 AM

Closest I can find other than PR is Cuba: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../gpdMaxw01a.gif

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85173 - Wed Sep 24 2008 03:10 AM

It's not unusual for developing tropical systems to have multiple centers or vortices at the surface and develop near and under deep convection. As for SC, the answer is no. This low will be extratropical from the word go. There has been some discussion that a few days down the road it may develop sub-tropical or hybrid characteristics, but it is not forecasted to remain over water and over water enough time. It takes several days for extratropical lows to acquire tropical characteristics; why? extratropical lows are cold core and deepen via baroclinic processes; differences in temperatures in air masses. Tropical lows are warm core and deepen is a pretty simple deal here, the ocean temperature. extratropical lows require upper air support to sustain them. Initially tropical systems begin shallow; they work their way from bottom up. Now if a extratropical low gets stranded and stays out over water for awhile, it can lose it's cold core and become warm, then you're in business.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85174 - Wed Sep 24 2008 05:11 AM

Yes, the mess is slowly pulled to the north. I still believe, that we can see some slow consolidation of the current broad mess on the northward track north of Hispaniola and the developement of TS Kyle. But I have my strong doubts, that we see hurricane Kyle, as the hurricane modells still show. ECMWF continues to show no developement at all.
We`ll see, what will arrive in about 4 days at or near to the northern atlantic US coast.


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
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Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85175 - Wed Sep 24 2008 07:51 AM

Part of Ral NWC forecast discussion:

MEANWHILE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY GAIN SOME
SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEPICTS A WARM CORE AT 850MB BY
THIS EVENING INTO THU. GFS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS ALSO
STRENGTHENED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS PROJECTED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK THU WITH 50-55KTS AT 925MB. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR THURSDAY
MORNING.

IR sat. loop this morning almost has the look of something sub-tropical, although I doubt any warm core has started to develop. Either way interesting discussion and it would appear that here in Eastern NC will see just as much wind and rain if not more than we saw with Hannah.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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