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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: craigm]
      #85420 - Sun May 17 2009 10:49 PM Attachment (131 downloads)

looks like the TAFB guys are following the GFS suite?

have a low off miami in 48hrs... tracking along coast, before a left hand turn across the state in to NE GOM.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Development in Cuba Jamaica Area [Re: craigm]
      #85421 - Sun May 17 2009 11:03 PM

Thank you! I needed that lol. Well... the point is that the models have not lost it and maybe they do need to be fine tuned.

I think i am going to go stare at some loops... and be grateful for this board.

someone please let me know when there is an invest.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #85422 - Sun May 17 2009 11:03 PM

Been tracking this disturbance for the past few days ever since the computer models began suggesting this disturbance could develop and must say that this is the best structurally the disturbance has looked to date. Even though the convection has waned, the mid-level circulation has vastly improved as opposed to just 24 hours ago and it seems that it may now be starting to translate down to the surface as recent observations have been indicating shifting winds and the CIMSS 850 MB Vorticity Product indicates that low-level vorticity has been increasing. Also, wind shear has also been steadily decreasing over the system throughout the day and continues to do so according to the CIMSS Shear Tendency Product. Overall, it seems that we may indeed be watching some gradual development occuring with this disturbance.

Earlier on my CCHS Weather Center site I had created a graphic showing the driving forces behind the projected movement and eventual impact on Florida from this system. Below is the graphic.
Graphic

I will have a new update regarding the system on my site sometime tomorrow. Have a good night you all and it feels to good to return to this great site.

Edited by cchsweatherman (Mon May 18 2009 02:06 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #85423 - Mon May 18 2009 12:22 AM

I'm not sure your aloud to post something with a picture taking up soo much space like that...but maybe things have changed.

Anyways the 0z run on the GFS doesnt show much @ all... just a trough of low pressure from the Keys to the Bahamas with a low on its eastern end...then migrating back west in response to a building ridge. Florida looks like rain..but as a weak 1007mb extra-tropical low...infact the GFS is showing alot of dry air working its way into the system. I guess we will tell in time!


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 817
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: scottsvb]
      #85424 - Mon May 18 2009 09:39 AM

The IR loop seems to indicate a low level circulation moving off the coast of Cuba. The models are not being quite as aggressive with this system this morning.

Floater - Infrared Channel 4 Loop

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MichaelA]
      #85425 - Mon May 18 2009 09:59 AM

Hey Michael..

Yeah I see the rotation, but I'm not sure if it's the "center"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

21N 76W

Unfortunately there aren't any Bouys in the area:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 138
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: Beach]
      #85426 - Mon May 18 2009 10:57 AM

I see the low level circulation as well, and there seems to be convection firing up just to the east of the center of circulation and trying to wrap around it a little bit, although something, probably some dry air, is keeping the west side of the system devoid of any significant storms. It seems the circulation reformed overnight from it's previous position to a new position of 21.75N and 76W, which appears to be generally moving to the NW.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85427 - Mon May 18 2009 11:51 AM

So my question is..is there one model in particular that saw that coming or is handling this set up better than another.

Are we sure how far south this "unusually strong late season cold frontK is going to go.

May storms can be as hard to predict as November storms in ways.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: LoisCane]
      #85428 - Mon May 18 2009 01:05 PM

Looks to me ( and as others have already observed ) that some low level swirl seems to have migrated to around 21N and 76W. Looks as if a broader mid level vorticity is slightly southeast ( perhaps around 20N & 75W ). While it is hard to really pinpoint which feature to follow, it would appear as if the overall motion now does seems to be between NNW and NW.

Looking at 0Z to 12Z data, my bet is on a UK/NAM solution. I think both have now for about 24 hours tracked a weak low ( 1004mb ) NNW to about West Palm Beach area, then turned it westward under a building ridge from the north, only to deepen the low a little in the E. Central Gulf, and finally northward from there. Latest NAM continues the thinking, except the timing a tad slower with a 1004 low just off S.E. Florida in about 42 hours. Forecast from there does the same but never really deepens the low to much in the Gulf.

All this aside, while SST's are certainly adequete for tropical develpment, the 12Z 200mb winds just seem to be screaming, and even after the trouph pulls out, while the upper air does appear to become more difluent, it still appears rather hostile for any real tropical system to develop. A nice anticyclone is starting to build in at the latter part of the forecast period but appears to be somewhat to the north and over the CONUS. Hard to see current forecast maps verify, and have more than a subtropical depression ( maybe weak TS ) at most in the 4-6 day range somewhere along the N. Gulf coast. Should be just what the doctor ordered - a good rainmaker!


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: weathernet]
      #85429 - Mon May 18 2009 01:27 PM

Any chance the model is reading 2 different systems?

This is way outside the box... subtropical rides up bahamas and warm core develops at tail end of front west of fl in the GOM.

Looking at sats... something compelling about what is vs trying to see the future with models.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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byrdlh
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
Loc: Panama City, FL 30.23N 85.65W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: weathernet]
      #85430 - Mon May 18 2009 02:13 PM

What is the chance it will effect the panhandle? I am following the analysis here, but am concerned due to outdoor high school graduation at the end of the week. Will it track more to the west? What is the possibility that the front moving through now (it is only 68 in PC today) will keep it to the west of us. We need to be able to make appropriate plans...do have backup just in case. )

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Lois
Unregistered




Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: weathernet]
      #85431 - Mon May 18 2009 02:20 PM

"All this aside, while SST's are certainly adequete for tropical develpment, the 12Z 200mb winds just seem to be screaming, and even after the trouph pulls out, while the upper air does appear to become more difluent, it still appears rather hostile for any real tropical system to develop. "

Yes... looking at the set up and the strength of King TUTT as he is sometimes called... I don't see how anything can develop just yet. And, NHC won't even give it a 30% chance (let me know if that changes, at work and just looping)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Look at that.. just LOOK


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2956
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: Unregistered User]
      #85432 - Mon May 18 2009 02:27 PM

The system is being tracked as Invest 90L now, being early, automated tracking here and on some other sites may take a while to show up.

Approx 21.9N, 75.8W


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2956
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #85435 - Mon May 18 2009 04:28 PM

You may want to check the front page for the new Special released Tropical Weather outlook.

I think it's a first for that to have been modified out of season.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 817
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #85436 - Mon May 18 2009 04:53 PM

It's going to be an interesting week whether this system continues to develop or not. The rainfall is welcomed here in West Central FL, although today's rain is from the frontal trough.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 5/4/1


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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MichaelA]
      #85437 - Mon May 18 2009 06:51 PM

Echoing sentiments of others from West Central Florida. This rain is much needed and hope it continues all week. I told my wife over the weekend that with any luck this would be a significant rain maker that could go along way to quenching the thirst of this nasty drought. Light rain and drizzle most of the day in Valrico has been most welcome.

Not happy that hurricane season is rapidly approaching, but glad to see familiar names back at flhurricane.com.


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #85438 - Mon May 18 2009 07:00 PM

Hi - the rain is about to move through our area in the Keys ... 'bout time.

From the vis sat loop, 90L appears to be having a rough go of it this eve. We shall see in the morning.


- take care - Rod
vis loop


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: docrod]
      #85439 - Mon May 18 2009 07:25 PM

Looking at data all day and last night... i'm wondering now if will see two lows out of this? 90L, which has already formed.... will move up the east side of Florida, before turning back across the state in a few days into the GOM. And a second...subtropical low that will form out in the southern GOM in the next day or two off the tail end of the front thats coming through... i would expect the second low to be weaker and move more west of southwest through the eastern/central GOM..... anyone think there be two lows? on possible tropical.. another subtropical?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85440 - Mon May 18 2009 08:00 PM

I've looked at the info and think this will be the rain-maker that central and south Florida needs. I don't see any significant tropical development, due to 1) upper level shear and 2) historical climatology.

As an aside, it's nice to see several regulars back. I don't often post but read everyone's input.

Looking forward to an exciting 2009!!!


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docrod
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida Keys, Key Colony Beach 24.72N 81.02W
Re: Early! Watching Area in the Gulf for Development [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85441 - Mon May 18 2009 08:07 PM

I'd agree - a chance. I've not been through all the data but GFS has certainly suggested that in some runs, and the disturbed weather moving into South Florida is shuffling the deck on all of us. I also think 90L may be breaking up but we shall see.

Regardless, our field work north of Key West tomorrow morning is canceled till Wed or maybe Thr.

- take care


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