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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Two Forms in East Atlantic [Re: bettysue]
      #85919 - Wed Aug 12 2009 08:58 PM

They are wish casters over on Weather Underground. Looking at the GFS this afternoon along with the ECMWF models not sure if I buy into these Models yet, at 12Z GFS had maybe Bill landfall into DC area, 18Z tonight showing landfall in NO/La..... Weclome aboard Betty.

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 156
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Two Forms in East Atlantic [Re: Old Sailor]
      #85920 - Wed Aug 12 2009 09:05 PM

Yes welcome aboard Betty. Right now TD#2 nor the wave just off the coast of Africa look particulary impressive. In the GOM, nothing too impressive, but there appears to possible be cyclonic turning in a cluster of thunderstorms south of Pensacola, as of the 00:15 UTC GOMFlot loop. What really has my eye right at the moment is the big tropical wave at 15N5W heading for the coastline of Africa. Impressive flareup of convection with this system.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 13 2009 06:58 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Two Forms in East Atlantic [Re: JoshuaK]
      #85921 - Wed Aug 12 2009 10:06 PM

Yes it is a great wave, but once it hits the water it hits the same conditions that this last wave and TD2 hit..which is a cold dry shower, very dry.

Possibly the big wave could juice up the atmosphere but don't see how it stands a chance unless there is a change in the negative conditions..negative/hostile conditions..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Two Forms in East Atlantic [Re: LoisCane]
      #85922 - Wed Aug 12 2009 11:02 PM

Betty, it's good to look at a variety of sources for info, but you have to weigh them. NHC is always where you should look.

And TD#2, which almost became a Tropical Storm earlier, may not even make it to the weekend as a tropical disturbance. For survival, It's really 50/50, it depends on if the system regains convection and persists tomorrow. I'd bet against it at the moment.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Morning Quick Look [Re: MikeC]
      #85924 - Thu Aug 13 2009 07:11 AM

TD 2 has had most of it's convection knocked out of the middle of it... for now it's a shadow of yesterday's near Tropical Storm.

Behind TD 2 is a large Tropical Wave. Last night's 00Z GFS brings the system to the Andros Island, Bahamas Area... the Bermuda Ridge breaks down and the system heads North along the East Coast toward the Carolinas. This is a 10 day forecast and subject to very large errors~danielw

Off to check the remaining models...
Long range forecast are like a hung jury. They all show that a Cyclone exists but the locations vary widely.
Stay tuned and get your supply lists ready.

Interesting note. One of the models indicated 3 systems at the 126 hour ( 5day) time frame.
One moving ashore near Corpus Christi,Tx: one near the Turks and Caicos Islands and one east of the Lesser Antilles. Now we wait.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 13 2009 07:40 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Morning Quick Look [Re: danielw]
      #85927 - Thu Aug 13 2009 08:59 AM

The models seem to be all over the place this morning. Some continue to develop TD #2, some develop TW 3 or ignore it. It will be interesting to watch the closer TW as it moves into the GOM over the weekend. SSTs in the Gulf are really high, so there is a lot of heat content to work with there.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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