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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #86368 - Tue Aug 18 2009 05:54 PM

Bill at 12:40 EDT today:

(click the image to enlarge, zoom in or out by choosing different resolutions at the top)

[Mike, et al: if you want to use my hosting of this image on the home page, my server can handle the load of about 100k visitors to it; also, smaller version]

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 18 2009 06:19 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86369 - Tue Aug 18 2009 06:54 PM Attachment (389 downloads)

RC Fantastic link. Placed that image as my background.
The way models seem to be trending, there is still obviously no threat here in the SE from Bill but if I lived in New England (see attachment} I would start paying attention.
The digging Polar trough does not appear like it will weaken the ridge as much as earlier runs indicated.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Tue Aug 18 2009 07:03 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: craigm]
      #86370 - Tue Aug 18 2009 08:26 PM

Bill has a classic hurricane appearance... while the convection is not completely symmetrical, the cloud tops are currently very cold (a significant amount of dark gray on the AVN loop, which is one level below white, which is the highest level there is on the chart). I think the 110mph estimate of winds is very conservative - Bill looks a lot like a Cat 4 hurricane to me.

Hopefully it doesn't go near any land until it's much weaker.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: Hugh]
      #86372 - Tue Aug 18 2009 08:37 PM

ADT shows T-numbers down to 7.0. SSD Objective T-number is at 6.0. Bill looks beautiful.

In reference to the cold could tops - yeah, quite cold. However, nothing close to Wilma. Go to JSL mode - Wilma had huge patches of purple, while Bill only has a few small spots, scatter haze.

This just out while I was writing the above:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/190030.shtml


830 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR. BILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

KIMBERLAIN/PASCH


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86377 - Tue Aug 18 2009 09:04 PM

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 100kts (~ 115.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 55° at 120kts (From the NE at ~ 138.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg) - Extrapolated
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 120kts (~ 138.1mph) in the north-northwest quadrant at 0:13Z

A couple of things from the last vortex msg (about 20min old I think) that are interesting. 1. pressure is still dropping, eye is circular (not elliptical), and the eyewall is open southeast. Is this the start of another eyewall replacement cycle? It just had one this morning and dont recall them being that frequent of an event

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: WeatherNut]
      #86382 - Tue Aug 18 2009 10:50 PM

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 02:26Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Bill2
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 2:03Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°8'N 53°28'W (17.1333N 53.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 496 miles (799 km) between the NE and ENE (56°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,744m (9,003ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the E (81°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 169° at 127kts (From the S at ~ 146.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the E (83°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 127kts (~ 146.1mph) in the east quadrant at 1:55Z

And just after this, the 11pm NHC data came out:
Location: 17.2°N 53.4°W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb


Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 18 2009 10:52 PM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86383 - Tue Aug 18 2009 11:20 PM

Bill is looking very impressive, glad the cone is staying well offshore from the US mainland.

The ULL that was Ana looks to have dragged itself off Cuba and is now almost on top of the Isle of Youth (aka Isle of Pines). Most of the heavy moisture seems to be drying up before reaching southern FL. However with day time heating and a strong onshore flow we could still see a good amount of rain, but I don't think its going to be a 2-day complete washout.

I also wonder if Ana will reappear near the Yucatan Peninsula, but right now I'd have to say "no" as the circulation is still to wide and not focused enough. Any mets want to ring in on this possibility?

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86384 - Tue Aug 18 2009 11:20 PM

I've noticed in the last couple of frames on the rainbow loop the eye has lost a lot of its definition and is not round, but it does not look like an eye wall replacement type setup to me. Those numbers seem to be a little off to what came out on the 11pm advisory.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86385 - Tue Aug 18 2009 11:30 PM

Bill is currently above the pressure wind curve.
1000mb-958mb=deltaP of 42+75mph=117mph for maximum estimated surface windspeed secondary to the pressure.
Large storms often have wind speeds above the curve.
Using the other formula 1013mb-958mb=deltaP of 55+75=130 mph.
I use the former to determine whether the storm is above the curve. In other words at least 100% efficent.

Bill's satellite signature would seem to indicate that the shear is beating the storm on the northern semicircle. A storm of Bill's magnitude should normally have a rounded area of highest cloud tops. Exclusive of an ERC.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 18 2009 11:36 PM)


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Mag
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Merritt Island, Fl
Re: Bill a Classic Hurricane, Still Most likely to Stay Out to Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #86386 - Wed Aug 19 2009 01:20 AM

Hey everyone,

I just want to say thank you for all of the great input here on this site. I was born and lived on Long Island up until about 5 years ago, and now live on Merritt Island, FL ( just south of the cape ) For the past 5 seasons, along with the offical weather sites, I have regularly relied on this site for great, accurate, and timely information, without all of the hype. I knew as soon as the first storm formed, this site came alive... I love it.

Thanks for all you guys do !

Mag

--------------------
Storms I Have Been Through

David, Gloria, Bob, Wilma, Fay


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Bill Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #86387 - Wed Aug 19 2009 05:02 AM

As of 5AM:

Category 4 Hurricane / 115mph / 948mb

Recon currently inbound.


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