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Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic
      #86457 - Mon Aug 24 2009 08:26 AM

5:00 AM EDT update
The wave northeast of the Caribbean is still very disorganized this morning, and being affected by shear. Models still have not handled the system well, and it appears that it will take some time to organize, if it does at all. It has a 30-50% chance to develop within the next 48 hours.

The current positioning makes it more likely that anything that may happen will stay out to sea.

7:20 PM EDT update
Another area in the west Caribbean, nearing land, has been tagged as invest 93L. It has <30% chance of development before landfall.


10:10AM EDT update
The wave east of the Caribbean is now being tracked as Invest 92L.

Currently it appears to be slowing down, over the next two days or so it will likely remain weak, after that it could get interesting. About a 50/50 shot it could affect land at this point.

There is a 30-50% chance that 92L will develop into a storm in 48 hours.

More to come soon...

Original Update
Hurricane Bill's last advisory was issued this morning after edging along the Canadian Maratimes. One story reports that a young girl was killed by a large wave in Maine when a group was wave watching Bill's surf at Acadia National Park.

What is worth watching now is a wave about 300-350 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, right now it has a low chance of development, but it could affect the us in some form later in the week.. It could approach Florida with some rain, or slow down and eventually turn north (which could give it time to develop). in that case the east coast will want to watch in case it doesn't turn north and away quickly enough.


The wave has not, as of yet, been tagged with an investigation number.

Outside of that, there isn't much going on right now.

We'll be watching the wave for signs of development.


92L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 92L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

93L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 93L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View




StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes



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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #86458 - Mon Aug 24 2009 09:57 AM

The wave has not, as of yet, been tagged with an investigation number.



The Navy site has Invest 92L up now.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: ltpat228]
      #86459 - Mon Aug 24 2009 10:30 AM

interesting to see the intensity plots have this spinning up. right now forecast plots are highly inaccurate. but its surely something that we should watch.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86460 - Mon Aug 24 2009 10:55 AM

Recon will be out there tomorrow.

The models are not reliable now (Really out of whack with this system) so don't use this until it's a bit more established.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #86461 - Mon Aug 24 2009 02:05 PM

Well its defidently not a closed circulation yet @ the low levels.... weak low level vortex around 15.6N and 60.2W on close-up vis.... also midlevel circulation around 18.5N and 57.3W... Im still very skeptical of this thing making it all the way to a tropical system,... might be fighting some cold-core symptoms... maybe subtropical.... who knows of yet. Anyways a weaker non developed low will move more W or WNW with the LLF if its going to keep getting shared (as expected for the next 24-48hrs).... and btw we should of designated the area in the SW carribean as a TD and would probably be a TS in the next 12 -24hr before making landfall in Nicaragua... pressures are around 1006mb down there and a well defined LLC.


Scottsvb


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #86464 - Mon Aug 24 2009 03:57 PM

Quote:

and btw we should of designated the area in the SW carribean as a TD and would probably be a TS in the next 12 -24hr before making landfall in Nicaragua... pressures are around 1006mb down there and a well defined LLC.





I just zoomed into this area on the visible Caribbean loop since there is no invest floater on it.
There is no invest floater on it, of course, because there is nothing there to warrant an invest. No sign of a circulation at any level on the visible, AVN, or Water Vapor loop.

Update:
NHC did issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook 20 minutes ago (555 PM EDT) to add this area as a Code Yellow... indicating that development should be slow to occur due to close proximity to land.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 24 2009 06:18 PM)


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CanesCrazy
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #86465 - Mon Aug 24 2009 04:41 PM

i don't know why people aren't talking about 92L. This can actually make landfall in the U.S other than bill.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: CanesCrazy]
      #86467 - Mon Aug 24 2009 05:24 PM

Quote:

i don't know why people aren't talking about 92L. This can actually make landfall in the U.S other than bill.




They will start talking about it when there is something to talk about. Right now we have blobs of convection. and NHC admission that it is not even sure where the wave is. The only thing that can hit land right now are thunderstorms caught in the flow. A good place to talk about 92L making landfall would be the 92L lounge.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #86468 - Mon Aug 24 2009 08:18 PM

93L is going to be short lived, it may re-emerge in the East Pacific. 92L is giving the models fits, well mainly because it's lacking a lot of organization. I wouldn't count on any of the model predictions on that. This wave may just be a rain event, and if so it may wind up further west than the models project.


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #86469 - Mon Aug 24 2009 09:42 PM

Mods, This should probably be a PM but I feel the whole site should see this.
CC sorry for sounding so harsh. I have seen so many of these things fizzle that until there is something for us to sink our teeth into I don't expect much out of any system. However, this is a strong enough wave to pay attention to but, too many variables to venture a guess where it could go should development occur. Models all suggest a recurve similar to Bill except for the navy model which takes it across Hatteras. But, of course this could change in the next 6 hours. The models have a hard time initializing systems that have not yet closed off . I don't see any strong trough developing like we saw with Bill. One short wave out of Canada in about 5 days but strong high pressure in the plains behind it.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: Hugh]
      #86470 - Mon Aug 24 2009 10:51 PM

Hugh .. they dont need to put a floater on something before it develops.. There is a LLC down there..but its just not strong enough to be warrented as a TD... also the NHC usually doesnt jump on every 25kt TD thats going inland within 12-24hrs unless they feel it would become a TS before landfall. This will be close...but probably wont even be classified as a TD!

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #86477 - Tue Aug 25 2009 04:50 AM

Coming up on 8AM eastern shortly. It will be interesting to read what NHC has to say. 93L probably doesn't have much more time than to become anything more than an unclassified or classifed depression in the southern Caribbean before shoving inland and across into the east Pac, where it will no doubt have plenty of time to do more. As of tonight, it consists of a reasonably well-formed surface low with some co-located deep convection in and/or near the coc, with some banding features noted about, and is riding underneath a very supportive upper-level anticyclone.

What will certainly be an attention-grabber for everyone waking up will be whether or not 92L has already come together enough to warrant T numbers at or above 2.0 - at present, it might rate around 1.5 using a shear pattern, but this probably already understates the true nature of this Invest. The closest, recent analog system I can come up with right now would be Subtropical Storm Olga (while she was still predominantly subtropical)... not to say that 92L is as of yet a subtropical storm, however - just to point out similarities in structure, location and synoptics.

92L currently consists of what appears to be a very potent wave that is closing or has closed off. Upper-level wind shear has evacuated precipitation that could otherwise choke of convection, and is allowing further deepening to occur in the general vicinity of 20N and 60W. Buoy 41044 located at 21.652 N 58.695 W has been seeing 1-minute sustained winds of up to 35MPH recently, along with consistent pressure drops.

It seems as if the models may have initialized 92L a bit too far to the south - in that it is looking more and more like there is something also taking or has taken more to the north of where model runs had placed it. This could be encouraging a more rapid recurvature.

All in all, we'll have a much better picture when recon gets in there later today, assuming they do.


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 405
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Bill Out, Watching Wave in Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #86479 - Tue Aug 25 2009 06:55 AM

The NHC site is now showing Floaters over both 92L and 93L.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

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