Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Zeta) , Major: 100 (Laura) Florida - Any: 787 (Michael) Major: 787 (Michael)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | (show all)
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: The 'Problematic' Storm [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86577 - Thu Aug 27 2009 05:42 PM

This post might not belong here but I will throw out these general musings on overall synoptics affecting Dannys track as well as what recurved Bill and anyone please add, correct or agree with as you see fit. We should look at this season as how an el nino year possibly impacts our basin. We obviously have a strong TUTT in place that has eroded the ridge in the Atlantic repeatedly. There is no indication that this pattern should change other than normal fluctuations. The high seems to be anchored closer to the Azores than Bermuda. Now these things exert a lot of steering influence at the upper levels i.e. 200mb, Dannys LLC is/was moving along below the 500mb flow. I think the stall is the Baroclinic trough moving through Florida with associated westerlies right behind it that will give him that push north. Watch to see the convection redevelop over Danny then the upper level influence really grab him.
Carolinas and points North though I wouldn't plan a lot of outdoor activities this weekend.

Looking forward the overall pattern looks like a year of the TUTT and perhaps that is a discussion reserved for another forum.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4359
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: The 'Problematic' Storm [Re: craigm]
      #86580 - Thu Aug 27 2009 09:45 PM

Danny's disorganization and movement now looks like it will stay away from the Carolinas and probably out to sea. I'm also liking the chances that 94L out in the Atlantic will recurve, but I'm not quite sure on that yet.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: The 'Problematic' Storm [Re: MikeC]
      #86581 - Thu Aug 27 2009 09:54 PM

Quote:

Danny's disorganization and movement now looks like it will stay away from the Carolinas and probably out to sea. I'm also liking the chances that 94L out in the Atlantic will recurve, but I'm not quite sure on that yet.




Models seem to be splitting on 94L. GFDL seems to want to put it on a WNW track across the Atlantic, while NOGAPS has it meadering around, and HWRF takes it northward. Too early to tell, but the odds are that it recurves, certainly.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: The 'Problematic' Storm [Re: craigm]
      #86582 - Fri Aug 28 2009 04:44 AM

What you're referring to is certainly not in my area of expertise but I know the term, TUTT and of course El Nino. The stall you're referring has a number of factors. 1) How deep vertically is Danny from surface to the upper levels? 2) How much shear is effecting the system? 3) What are the players at any given time for example...upper low over the SE USA, potent shortwave moving east through the central part of the US and the evolution of a deepening longwave trough over the Eastern US, the persistent upper low to the southwest of Danny with axis extending to near Danny, the upper ridge immediately to the right of Danny and the upper low to it's left.

Danny's slow movement is indicative of what is giong on upstairs and an exposed LLC is also indicative that Danny is vertically challenged. When you look at a strong hurricane you will note they are vertically stacked all the way up with normally an upper ridge above them which helps a storm "breathe"...that classic pattern where you see cirrus rotate anti-cylconically and away from the storm.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 10 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 41056

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center