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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
14.0N 56.0W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
W at 25 mph
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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Erika Forms East of the Leeward Islands
      #86614 - Sun Aug 30 2009 07:54 AM

4:50 PM EDT 1 Sep 2009 Update
More to Come soon, but the wave known as 94L has become Tropical Storm Erika.

It is moving West Northwest at 9MPH, and has 50mph winds.

The forecast track has it east of the Bahamas in 120 hours, and after that depends on how strong or weak the system gets. If it gets stronger, it will likely move more north and out to sea, while a weaker system will likely stay more westward.


6:20 AM EDT 1 Sep 2009 Update
The wave east of the Caribbean is looking good on satellite, but is missing the low level circulation it needs to become a tropical cyclone. This morning there are actually signs of that happening, but all the convection and storm energy seems to be the east of it. This is due to persistent shearing in the area keeping it a bit disorganized, which has been common this year. Ie, the low level is doing one thing, while the mid level is doing another.

Martinique Radar

It still has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a depression in the next 48 hours. By 11AM is likely today.

With the weaker system, the more west it goes. Those in the Leeward islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico will want to continue to watch this system. Models still have not been handling the initialization of the system well. However, the GFDL model, now no longer dissipates the system. Until this gets organized it is impossible to say if it will have any impact on the US or not, again odds are slightly in favor of it staying out to sea. The forecast for this system will likely be more difficult than most.



The other wave east of the Bahamas is mostly an upper level feature, but it has been persistent. But there are currently no signs of a low level move that would allow for development.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Jimena has become a strong Category 4 Hurricane nearing a Category 5, and is expected to landfall in Mexico along the Baja California Peninsula as a Category 3 hurricane .



9:40 AM EDT 31 Aug 2009 Update
There is a better chance this morning that a depression will form from 94L. The overall structure is there, but the convection around the center still lacks (see Dvorak estimates). It looks fairly well this morning so it may become a depression at 11AM. There is some shear ahead of it, which may keep it from organizing, and also the circulation center is not under most of the convection, this may keep it from being upgraded.

The Windward islands of the Caribbean still need to watch 94L closely, and longer range models have bent back further west, which will keep the Bahamas and the southeast US in a monitor mode until it gets closer. Recon aircraft will start to head out there tomorrow.

Odds this year favor systems out to sea, but 94L has a better than usual chance of breaking it and heading more west. We will have to monitor it..

The wave east of the Bahamas (has no invest number) has little low level activity and is not likely to develop soon, it too is worth watching to see if anything changes with it.

Original Update
The wave east of the Caribbean, 94L, has survived the last few days weak, and moved more west. It is now poised to develop today or tomorrow, it has greater than a 50% chance to develop within the next 48 hours.

Most forecast models have had a terrible time with this system, trending it north incorrectly over and over again. It remaining weak and mostly low level has kept it more on a westerly track. If and until this develops, the models will not be of much worth with it. That said, those in the Leeward and Windward Caribbean islands need to watch this system. It may strengthen some then weaken again. There is some shear north of the system, so the further south and west it stays the more chance it has for survival.

If it does develop movement to the northwest and north is more likely, and the odds are that it will not affect the US if it does.



The best course of action is to continue to wait and see what occurs with the system.

Other things to watch include a smaller wave north of the Lesser Antilles, and energy in the Southwestern Caribbean for any persistence.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #86616 - Sun Aug 30 2009 08:44 AM

94L held on to all of its convection overnight and now seems to be consolidating.
Discussion out of NWS San Juan up coming week:
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300829
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING TUTT LOW NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HELP MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TUTT LOW NORTH
OF PR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO DRIFT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AND SETTLE OVR HISPANIOLA BY MON
EVENING. VEERING WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HELP DRAW MOISTURE NWD FROM THE DEEP TROPICS INTO OUR AREA AND
KEEP US WET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TUE-WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...CAP DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT DO EXPECT A SIG DROP
IN CONVECTIVE CVRG.

THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
45W. FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE SHOW A MARKED
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH A CIRCULATION TRYING TO CLOSE OFF NEAR
11.2N AND 45.1W. NOT SURE IF THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OR A SHORT TERM TREND GIVEN FVRBL CONVECTIVE
UPSWING SEEN WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AT NIGHT BUT SYSTEM DEFINITELY
LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HRS AGO. SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Hurikid
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 14
Loc: Barbados
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: craigm]
      #86617 - Sun Aug 30 2009 08:59 AM

I live in Barbados, and I feel that if continues moving on this heading and intensifies somewhat.....watches and warnings may be required for my area by this evening......and on the weather news last night they barely spent 3 seconds on it stating that it will go north of the entire LESSER ANTILLIES

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 265
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Hurikid]
      #86618 - Sun Aug 30 2009 09:06 AM

94L is definitely looking better organized now. Notice the start of a classic outflow pattern in the NW quadrant.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #86620 - Sun Aug 30 2009 10:02 AM

what a difference a few hours makes!
Last night, 94L was down to code yellow, and that looked very generous.
Today, the inflow looks excellent and it looks on the verge of becoming a TD.

Speaking of things changing quickly... over in th EPAC.. the "extremely small" Hurricane Jimena has tripled in size this morning, it looks like, and is well on the way to Cat 4+.

Things can change in a hurry this time of year.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 995
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Hugh]
      #86622 - Sun Aug 30 2009 10:13 AM

Based on Quikscat, it looks like it has a closed circulation too, visible in a pass a few hours ago:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat09083007_94as.png

Not much wind yet, though, but I would expect it to be called a tropical depression later today. The latest quikscat shows max 35kt vectors in questionable locations, and otherwise caps at 20kt:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat09083013_94as.png

Most models aren't picking up any sort of track yet since they are not developing the storm. CMC, which tends to overdevelop storms, shows a track heading WNW to a spot in about 5 days north of Puerto Rico, but slowing down to almost stopped toward the end of that period. We won't have any really decent track data until about 12 hours after it is a tropical storm, though.

All Quikscat graphics: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/qscat_storm.pl


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86624 - Sun Aug 30 2009 10:37 AM

Graphic on INVEST94 does not load at NRL.... are they in the process of preparing to pull the trigger?

Well it loads now (the satellite image), plus there is a TCFA issued now. So I guess no trigger YET..

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 30 2009 10:39 AM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #86627 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:41 PM

That is correct; the shallower 94L is it will be steered by the low level "trade" winds, east to west. Once 94L becomes deeper and more vertical it should begin to gain some latitude. 30/12Z Model package continue to keep a broad longwave trough over the Eastern United States with a cutoff upper low setting up shop over the Mid-Tennesee Valley at H+72 hours and opening back up at H+120 hours but continuing a broad but weaker longwave trough over the east effectively blocking any storm from approaching the coast. This setup also induces Southwest shear once again. All that said, this system is considerably farther south and if the system remains shallow then things become a bit more interesting; stay tune.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Hugh]
      #86629 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:50 PM

Seems to be a bit of disparity among the computers. The NHC graphic for 94L indicates a Code RED.
While this morning Tropical Discussion puts 94L in the 30-50% group, or Medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 16N42W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N44W TO 7N49W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
45W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W IN WHAT APPEARS
TO BE POSSIBLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION THAT IS BEING ENHANCED AND/OR
PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE LOW CENTER/TROPICAL WAVE SYSTEM. THE
CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/301130.shtml?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/301133.shtml


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: berrywr]
      #86630 - Sun Aug 30 2009 12:56 PM

Wonder if any of the models are picking up on the recurvature of E Pac Hurricane Jimena recurving into the Desert Southwest in a few days. That could throw a wrench into the current ridge in place... and put out a few fires. But the tropical moisture could also bring mudslides.

A bit of a stretch from the Atlantic Basin discussion here but certainly food for thought.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: danielw]
      #86631 - Sun Aug 30 2009 01:03 PM

Quote:

Wonder if any of the models are picking up on the recurvature of E Pac Hurricane Jimena recurving into the Desert Southwest in a few days. That could throw a wrench into the current ridge in place... and put out a few fires. But the tropical moisture could also bring mudslides.
A bit of a stretch from the Atlantic Basin discussion here but certainly food for thought.




I had not thought of that. It's certainly something that the models do seem to be leaning towards with Jimena. I'm not sure the moisture would have a big impact on the Atlantic basin, though.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Hugh]
      #86634 - Sun Aug 30 2009 02:33 PM

Am I just imagining things....or is there another wave that looks like it could flare up fairly quickly just north of the Antilles?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: hogrunr]
      #86635 - Sun Aug 30 2009 02:41 PM

OH BOY !
Looking at the visible loop, it sure looks like 94L is getting it's form together this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 995
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: hogrunr]
      #86636 - Sun Aug 30 2009 02:48 PM

I assume you are asking about the rotating convection near 60-65W 20-25N? That is the extension of the frontal system that absorbed Danny. It is possible that it could become cut off, but right now it is not. You can tell this via the Water Vapor loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

I'm actually a little more interested in what is going on down around 80W 10-15N. There is also a tropical wave to the east of that - around 70W. The way the convection is acting, it isn't typical of thunderstorms. Nothing tropical yet, though.

NHC only has Invest 94L active - that is the system around 50W 10N.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86637 - Sun Aug 30 2009 03:15 PM

Looking at this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html I believe 94L may become Erica late tonight or tomorrow .

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Random Chaos]
      #86639 - Sun Aug 30 2009 03:48 PM

Quote:

I assume you are asking about the rotating convection near 60-65W 20-25N? That is the extension of the frontal system that absorbed Danny. It is possible that it could become cut off, but right now it is not. You can tell this via the Water Vapor loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

I'm actually a little more interested in what is going on down around 80W 10-15N. There is also a tropical wave to the east of that - around 70W. The way the convection is acting, it isn't typical of thunderstorms. Nothing tropical yet, though.

NHC only has Invest 94L active - that is the system around 50W 10N.




Yes that exactly which one I am referring too, I see where it is connected now, so it will just require some further watching for now.

I also saw the system earlier at 80W that you are referring to, most of the systems in that area have been just moving inland over Central America, but this one looks like it might take a NNW route out of that area and that would put it awfully close to home. There is really nothing out there to stop it.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: rgd]
      #86641 - Sun Aug 30 2009 04:47 PM

94L looks pretty good. It doesn't have a real core yet, but has good outflow on all sides except some shear to the WSW. Its a little squished and not very round/symmetrical, yet still looks more organized then some of the weaker storms we've seen so far this year.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: JMII]
      #86642 - Sun Aug 30 2009 05:50 PM

94L is definitely trying to get its act together... Still looks a mess to me, maybe TD by morning, but hardly Erica (yet).. the media has been ramping up for some kind of natural disaster, and it's my hope this one's a bust as well (or a fish)

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #86644 - Sun Aug 30 2009 06:39 PM

Just a reminder that posts on the Main Page thread and the Storm Forum are still moderated more diligently. Stick to the site rules, stay on topic, and don't get flippant or abusive to others. If your post is no longer visible, thats probably the reasons why.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Watch the back door again...GOM [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86645 - Sun Aug 30 2009 07:55 PM

Excerpt from the afternoon AFD at NWS Slidell,LA

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ONE FEATURE TO BE NOTICED
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING...AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TROPICAL
LOW TO TAKE HOLD. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE IN
PLAY...INCLUDING DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AND A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE REGION. FORTUNATELY...THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE ON THE WESTERN OR DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. AT MOST...SOME WRAP AROUND MOSITURE AND SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT COASTAL MISSISSIPPI ZONES ON THURSDAY.
http://flhurricane.com/text/AFDLIX.txt

Worth keeping an eye on.
Late Sunday afternoon there was a confirmed tornado in Corpus Christi,TX. Which is near the southern end of the frontal boundary.


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