rgd
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
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since we are just picking out parts only here ya go also.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ida is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Gradual weakening is forecast..
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 344
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Let's keep in mind many NWSFOs are updating their web servers as we speak and are switching over to systems which will enable redundancy; backup for their products.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
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Okaloosa County has just posted a statement that the schools will be OPEN Monday.
They are assessing for Tuesday and will make their decision by noon tomorrow.
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Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 232
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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Quote:
Okaloosa County has just posted a statement that the schools will be OPEN Monday.
They are assessing for Tuesday and will make their decision by noon tomorrow.
Yeah, because they NEED to have kids out on buses trying to get home in the leading squall bands from a tropical system that could accelerate as it approches. Sounds like typical School Board BS to me. And I WORK for a school system. I have rarely seen what harm it does to close school JUST IN CASE. Why risk anything. Also, if there is a chance of rough weather late in the day, a lot of folks will keep the kids home anyways. Seems like too many taking this too lightly!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2013 Season Prediction: 18/9/4
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1201
Loc: South Florida
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http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
When you look at all the moisture moving..merging from west GOM and with ida moving at what looks faster than what she is posted at going...and front is sort of high up but moving
what would really make her come out around st augustine vs say carolina...
that is the part i don't get as her fast forward speed would make me think rain will go up thru ga and out carolinas... don't see what bends her as the dry air in the atlantic is still pushing down and helping to push her futher north faster... i see the short range..not the long range
thoughts?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Quote:
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
When you look at all the moisture moving..merging from west GOM and with ida moving at what looks faster than what she is posted at going...and front is sort of high up but moving
what would really make her come out around st augustine vs say carolina...
that is the part i don't get as her fast forward speed would make me think rain will go up thru ga and out carolinas... don't see what bends her as the dry air in the atlantic is still pushing down and helping to push her futher north faster... i see the short range..not the long range
thoughts?
They've already issued flash flood watches here in the Atlanta Metro for Monday night through Wednesday. I have seen projections of 4-8 inches of rain which is the last thing we need here. 8inches of rain would be devastating here in Atlanta as the ground is still saturated. Even Lake Lanier is 1 foot above full pool
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 344
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Storm IDA: Observed by AF #304
Storm #11 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #11: 06
Date/Time of Recon Report: November 09, 2009 09:19:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 25 ° 23 ' N 087 ° 56 ' W (25.38° N 87.93° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3026 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 50 Knots (57.5 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 11 Nautical Miles (12.65 miles) From Center At Bearing 241°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 55 Knots (63.25 MPH) From 241°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 9 Nautical Miles (10.35 Miles) From Center At Bearing 138°
Minimum Pressure: 994 Millibars (29.352 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 13°C (55.4°F) / 3055 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 12°C (53.6°F) / 3026 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 2 °C (35.6°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: E06/25/15
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 74 KT NE Quadrant at 07:03:50Z
2: Maximum Flight Level Temp 13C 142/18NM FROM Flight Level CNTR
3: EYEWALL THIN WITH WEAK CONVECTION
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 344
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Satellite imagery this morning depicts Ida being affected by 30 to 35 knot shear and convection rapidly warming around the center and there isn't much left of Ida to the west and south of her center and I wouldn't be surprised if in fact Ida is no longer a hurricane and may very well be undergoing transition as we speak.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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Very windy here in the Orlando metro area due to the pressure gradient. Low level winds are out of the east and bringing some spotty rain.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The lightning and hail from last night was a good sign that the storm may undergo relatively rapid changes after several hours, and it looks like it was the precursor to the weakening, especially since it was on the northern side. That was the biggest hint I could find that foretold the way it looks this morning.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 344
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Pressure now 997 mbs and estimated surface winds of 45 knots and current satellite imagery now has center virtually gone and now appears transition is now underway.
URNT12 KNHC 091138
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 09/10:59:40Z
B. 25 deg 47 min N
088 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 3055 m
D. 45 kt
E. 217 deg 18 nm
F. 301 deg 51 kt
G. 210 deg 11 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 10 C / 3049 m
J. 14 C / 3046 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0611A IDA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NE QUAD 07:03:50Z
CNTR RAGGED
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60KT NORTH QUAD 11:14:00Z
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 344
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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NHC is being generous maintaining Ida as a hurricane; they didn't incorporate the new vortex message into their latest intermediate advisory.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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You can learn a lot here. I've always seen lightning and hail as precursors to a deepening system. Whether a Tropical system or NorEaster.
Now we know that they can be precursors to a weakening system also. Thanks, Mike.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Yeah lightning and hail usually means rapid changes in the storm are coming, not necessarily strengthening, but usually that is the case. This time it was somewhat north of the CoC, which indicated some vertical shear was getting in the mix, thus creating the right conditions for the hail/lightning, it also showed that the shear was indeed coming. If it were right around the eye then it would probably mean strengthening.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Looking at the last few frames of the rainbow IR loop, looks like Ida may be trying one last gasp at recovering. Although it could be an illusion. I will be interested to see how she is still classified at 10.
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Jim
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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The last frame of the IR AVN shows a nice little connective burst near the old center.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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It sure looks like Ida is trying a Lee Corso "Not so fast, my friend." Not sure how much longer it will last; but there has been a nice convective burst north of the center. Environment is too sheared to get wrapped around, though. Might be her last tropical gasp before giving in to the cold side.
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Jim
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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 237
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
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It seems that Ida may have one more surprise for us before making landfall later today.
After really having had the punch knocked out of her by steadily increasing upper level wind shear, and having a dramatic decoupling of the surface and mid-upper level circulations, Ida was reduced from a strong Cat 2 hurricane to just a strong tropical storm in a matter of hours, with all the deep convection sheared off to the NE while leaving behind an exposed low level circulation spinning and totally destroying the inner-core convection comprising the eyewall feature in the process.
But since then, there has been a very impressive mesoscale convective complex (MCC) re-forming directly over and embedding the once-exposed LLCC, shrouding it from view.
This does not appear to be at all the kind of 'shearing thunderstorms' we're all familiar with, with the thunderstorm anvil being quickly wisped away in a long, elongated plume of cirrus debris. Rather, this is very deep, sustained, dare I say 'bursting', convection that *does not* appear to be heavily sheared.
The storms are 'congregating' over the LLC, hiding it from view once again, while the cirrus tops just sort of 'bubble and perculate' above these very intense thunderstorm cells, with the debris cirrus gradually sliding off to the northeast in a huge, broad ice plume.
Quote:
Yeah lightning and hail usually means rapid changes in the storm are coming, not necessarily strengthening, but usually that is the case. ... If it were right around the eye then it would probably mean strengthening.
I agree totally. And if it is these supercells that are the source of the lightening strikes detected, then I'd be inclined to think that the storm could very well be making an attempt at re-establishing the inner core structure, and possibly, dare I say, *strengthen* again, or at the very least, maintain it's current intensity without exhibiting the gradual spindown we all were expecting.
If this convective trend were to continue for a few more hours, I suspect that the next recon mission might very well have something of a surprise waiting for them. This could be interesting if the MCC holds together for a few more hours at least, in the face of the shear, and attempts to regenerate into a healthy and viable storm once again. The odds are very much against it, but indeed, stranger things have happened !!
...
Edited by CoconutCandy (Mon Nov 09 2009 01:14 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I think the 1:00 EST advisory shows this new burst. Pressure has fallen to 992mb, below the 993mb of the 7:00am advisory. Not sure how much longer this burst will maintain, though.
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Jim
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 797
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Seems that too is being sheared off to the North. Of more concern to me is the "feeder" band on the East side which, if it persists, could sweep into the Tampa Bay area on Tuesday/Wednesday as Ida makes her easterly turn.
Edit: Ida seems to be "bursting." As soon as one burst of convection shears off, another forms near the center.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 1/0/0
Edited by MichaelA (Mon Nov 09 2009 01:32 PM)
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