MikeC
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Those models are already too far east and north, it's going to be a struggle for Alex to hit the Bay of Campeche. It may get very little/no time over water now, and probably will not strengthen much when it does.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Probably below 20N - if it makes it to any water at all its going to be in the very southern part of the Bay of Campeche. Strong blocking ridge to the north and perhaps some influence from Darby.
SSEC Steering Currents
ED
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Storm Hunter
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Thought so too but still there appears to be two sets of models to choose from... the left turn in BOC to landfall into MX or the right turn and landfall in the Gulf Coast... as of 6am CDT. Alex is about halfway across the landmass and should be make it into BOC later tonight. 00Z was a little concering... along with 00Z. I noticed a bend in the 00Z ... to me its appears there still a chance for Alex to get north... i thought the blocking would occur, but it appears to me it will just slow down Alex's forward speed and maybe leave a window open for alex to go further north then forecasted. I'm just not 100% confident on MX landfall after BOC. Until i see how Alex does returning into BOC late this evening.
PS: 4am disc. first paragraph is very detailing on how Alex is looking and doing!
IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.
did i mention i like when Capt. Stewart is working? lol
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 27 2010 11:17 AM)
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danielw
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Morning discussion is rather gloomy. Models have split. Mexico or La/Tx border. Eastern most model is over the Mississippi River just west of Baton Rouge,LA.
Quite a swing from yesterday and is seeing an increase in convective bands with an eye like feature noted in the 4 AM discussion.
Have to check on RECON as Alex is over land and that normally prevents dropping dropsondes but they may be able to fly the storm anyway.
EDIT- RECON is not scheduled to depart until 5PM EDT this afternoon. New TCPOD should be out around 9 AM.
Belize and Mexican radar are being used by to track Alex in the meanwhile.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 27 2010 11:43 AM)
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MikeC
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Looks like I overdid the westward trend a bit last night, it's still looking Mexico, but I know the Hurricane Center is watching the model trends, too. Alex is pretty complex, weak system right now, with a great outflow and structure still. IT could rapidly restrengthen over the Gulf, and how much it does really determines how far north it may go. It's still mostly a Mexican problem, though. The westward trend is mostly Euro driven, sometime Tuesday Alex is likely to move more westward.
The system is still moving west of the forecast track.
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MikeC
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Best track has it back to Tropical Depression status, it'll probably be so until it some good hours over water again.
At the rate Alex is moving, it will reemerge over water this afternoon.
The possibilities have opened up, it's a good bet nobody will have a good handle on where this system may go until Late Tuesday/Wednesday.
It currently is slightly further west and south than the forecasted track.
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danielw
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Looks like anyone west of the Mouth of the Mississippi River needs to keep one eye on Alex.
Weird situation and TS force winds out to 150 miles. Big Tropical Storm.
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SeaMule
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about every 6 hours the 3 day cone changes quite a bit. Kinda lends one to believe that forecasting is sometimes, with some systems....tough to nail down.
anyone in the Gulf coast....to as far east as Destin....should consider what this storm might do. For one thing..it is a very large storm...and as was mentioned...had it been over water.....all the time....it'd be a major hurricane by now...i'd think. That being said....I don't rule out anything...from exiting in the Mexican coast...to looping north to the oil-laden northern gulf coast waters....
the trend toward the east....has begun,
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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First, a review of the last few position points:
27/06Z 18.0N 89.0W
27/09Z 18.3N 89.4W
27/12Z 18.4N 89.9W
27/15Z 18.6N 90.6W (projected)
At 14Z the storm is already probably close to the projected 15Z position, so its a conservative estimate.
At 27/09Z, the forecast position for 27/18Z was 19.1N 90.6W, but the storm center is already south of that point by about 30 miles. Thats only a 9-hour forecast, but the 9-hour point has consistently been too far to the north. If you miss the 9-hour point by a half degree, the entire forecast track is off. Sometimes when you forecast by the models rather than the meteorology you lose - but thats a subject for another time.
Since 27/09Z, Alex has been moving more to the west to west northwest rather than the northwest - perhaps just a wobble (although I doubt it since wobbles are normally seen in strong systems). For Alex, even a wobble at this time is important since it could influence just how much time Alex will have over the GOM.
ED
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hogrunr
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The noted this track variance in its 10 am CDT discussion:
WHILE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ALEX APPEARS ALMOST DUE WEST...A
LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS....A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. .....
ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT
TIME IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO
THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALL OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF ALEX OFFERS A
REMINDER TO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY
IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE
FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE 200 TO 300 MILES.
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stormtiger
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Alex has even as 93L has been going more West and South than thought. I believe it will continue to do so and follow a typical late June track into central Mexico instead of a track similar to Audrey.
But everyone should be careful. If Alex lingers and gets stronger and has a longer period of time over water, it could still be a problem for Texas (Brownsville/Corpus).
It is fortunate that Alex formed later than sooner, he is a big storm and with a lot of ingredients are there for strengthening. If alex would have made the Yucatan channel or even futher North of the Yucatan peninsula, the oil retrieving efforts would surely have suffered.
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danielw
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NHC is reading ED's posts. 
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hogrunr
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Stolen from hurricantrack.com's facebook page from last night:
Here is what our colleague Mike Watkins had to say about it all on Storm2k.org this evening: Mark and I were talking today about that giant low that develops in the that runs up the coast like a summer nor'easter later in the week. After thinking about this today, I think the is simply having trouble dealing with all of the heat in this region, so it's creating a feedback low in the Gulf of Mexico.... See More Looking for confirmation on this thinking, I checked the Wilmington NWS AFD, since they would have to deal with this system, and here's what they said: Quote: DEVELOPS A FEEDBACK LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH IT THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS FL AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PARALLEL DOES NOT SHOW THIS LOW...FURTHER ADDING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FEATURE WILL NOT EXIST. The has never handled heat like this very well, and I think the problem with the 18Z and the other models that feed from it (HWRF and to name a couple) is this: The "feedback low" is busting out just enough of the Gulf ridge at 500mb. This allows steering north of Alex (in the model) to break down enough to let Alex catch the trough coming through. Oh, there's no doubt that trough is going to come through, but odds of it digging Alex out on it's own are slim, Alex is too far south and it's almost July. So...the gives the trough help with it's famous create-a-storm feature. Seriously, watch this nonsense in the 500MB loop: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml If you really, really want to see if the is on the right track, look for unusual development of some sort of deep-layer low pressure system in the NE Gulf in 2-3 days. If this feature shows up, then maybe scores a coup. However, I think the can't handle the heat properly, creates a phantom system, and pulls Alex up incorrectly.
Then as noted in a later discussion...there is an upper level low coming into play in East Texas as we speak.
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mcgowanmc
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/12/gfs_pcp120126_l.shtml
This is where I put it. Louisiana gets a scare Wednesday pm, and then
Alex goes into Matagordo Bay as a strong Cat 2.
The heat of the GOM is not being factored in.
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WeatherNut
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I've heard that same complaint from other forecasters about the not handling heat very well and feeding back
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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the analyst
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Nah....This is a Tex/Mex problem. Cat 2....eh maybe but doubtful.
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danielw
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If the is correct with the timing. The intensity won't make a whole lot of difference at this point.
3 days of steady rain will allow winds above 40 mph to lay down trees. Lots of trees.
Once the wind speeds increase ... many more trees will fall and creeks will rise.
Tropical Depression or not.
Not quite the Allison scenario but warming up toward it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison
IF the does verify.
Long ways off from the latest run. 36 hours before the forecast rainfall begins and 5 days before it hits the proverbial fan.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 27 2010 04:57 PM)
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typhoon_tip
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The 12Z guidance: I don't believe the models are doing a very good job with Alex, despite seeing a reasonably well clustered vision by the various model types (sans the Euro), for a vestigial circulation to re-emerge over the eastern Cam. Bay on a NW trajectory. Looking at the observed deep layer steering field it would seem such a motion would be premature - we'll see. Also, it almost appears that what a few of these models, HWRF and for example, are doing is actually shearing off a piece of the llv vorticity and using that to redevelop, which does not seem too plausible given to the current singularly cohesive circulation structure. That aside, I am finding it intriguing where the models are getting this NW motion from, which if it is going to work out that way we would probably be seeing that beginning to materialize this afternoon. The deep layer steering field shows fairly impressive ridge curvature to the N of Alex, which counters that expectation.
I was just studying the high resolution visible loops, as well as IR, and the best observation I could make has Alex on due west motion ...almost ever so slightly south of W if imagination got in the way. It also appears to be wobbling some, though.
Alex has a very good circulation presentation that does not appeal as one that is to be dismantled before potentially tapping into the BOC fuel source. All other parameters actually support TC genesis, as others have noted. From my perspective, given the in tact structure and assuming this doesn't stall before getting what remains of a "core" nearer to the coast I see restrengthening a real possibility.
Also, seeing as the models are going S Texas to the upper TX Coast (per the ), it is obviously a good idea to keep an eye on this.
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danielw
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Still south of a due west track as Ed suggested earlier. I believe.
At the current forward speed the center of the tightly wrapped spiral should be in the BOC in 3 hours.
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SeaMule
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looking at the RGB loop...there is a wnw movement. i see NO south at all. IMHO
once it gets into the water, it will ramp up quickly. the forecast to a cat 2 is easily plausible. we better hope it doesn't stall...or turn northerly too fast.
oilageddon
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