Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Looks like alex is in a strengthening stage... how long it will last? i think a few more hours then prolly a hold over night... then tmrw the setup looks ideal~
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 02:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 2:05:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°52'N 91°33'W (20.8667N 91.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 97 miles (156 km) to the NW (317°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 556m (1,824ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 68kts (From the SSE at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 756m (2,480ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:59:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 29 2010 02:29 AM)
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
Also max flight level winds 68kts
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
kpthras7
Unregistered
|
|
okay quys what is your best quess on where alex will wind up?
(Go back and read the purpose of this site - and pay attention to the guidance from the National Hurricane Center. )
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 29 2010 03:29 AM)
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Here come the Changes!
0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.............
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 91.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 29 2010 02:46 AM)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
The burst up in the satellite image is similar looking to what happened to Alex before landfall in Belize, it's fairly likely we'll wake up to a Hurricane in the morning.
The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet that was flying around today took measurements all over the gulf that hopefully will feed into the models tomorrow.
Some types of Evacuation orders for South Padre Island already exist.
|
mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
|
|
its amazing how quickly Alex regained convection, looks like he's pullingair from the Pacific ocean and Central America.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg
|
k___g
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
|
|
A reminder...this site is NOT to be used as official information.
There are many qualified individuals that post here, however, we all need to pay attention to the official forecasts.
edited: see Note at the bottom of the page.
Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 29 2010 05:32 AM)
|
Fairhopian
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 26
Loc:
|
|
The discussion mentions that, even though Alex's movement has been to the north for the past several hours, the forecast track still shows a gradual bend to the west due to a mid-level ridge building from the north. When does this storm cross the threshhold into creating its own environment? Is 600 miles in every direction from its center not enough? Also, why does the not bring this storm to hurricane strength at any point despite the abated sheer above and warm, warm water below?
|
Raymond
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
|
|
It´s already very close to hurricane status. The last recon pass showed 73 kt FL winds in the NE quadrant.
It isnßt believable, that there won´t be any development in the next two days. On the other hand it doesn´t look like as phases of rapid intensification are very likely. So the scenario should be really the best bet. Lets´s see.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Some energy is being "Spit off" to the north, while the core of the system remains far south, the northwest quadrant is in bad shape compared to the rest of the system.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Not too much new other than a lower pressure at 8AM. There are more signs a movement toward the northwest have begun, however.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 29 2010 01:52 PM)
|
berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
|
|
I disagree with Alex undergoing rapid intensification. There is no evidence on satellite imagery to believe Alex is going to "bomb out" today and undergo rapid intensification.
1. It is a huge system.
2. There is no complete inner core
3. Piece of long wave trough has broken off over TX with small upper lows over TXOK and NM has depicted on water vapor imagery.
4. Winds aloft over TX are from the SW and over LA from the N as depicted on water vapor.
5. Upper low over the Hudson Bay continues to dig and sink southward pinching the Bermuda Ridge south with axises over the entire Gulf coast and to the south over the FL peninsula with flow there from the N to the S
6. Upper low off the east coast of FL
7. Alex is elongated from North to South; shear is about 10 knots N to S
8. Flow over TX being SW to NE and over Alex N to S is indicative of either a bubble high between TX and Alex or an extension of the Bermuda High between the two ever so narrow.
9. Discussion out of Slidell, LA talks about an inverted trough over the state...Two schools of thought...one's Alex and the other is the trough over TX and a piece of shortwave energy is rotating inverted around it, albeit weak.
Conclusion....Alex will become a hurricane; pressure is indicative it should be, but too many negative factors for rapid intensification...
Now...watch me be wrong....Waiting on the 29/12Z Upper Air package!
Y'all have a nice day...
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
|
berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
|
|
Latest vortex message....
000
URNT12 KNHC 291153
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 29/11:29:00Z
B. 22 deg 22 min N
092 deg 37 min W
C. 850 mb 1276 m
D. 57 kt
E. 087 deg 19 nm
F. 145 deg 70 kt
G. 063 deg 68 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 17 C / 1521 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF306 0801A ALEX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 11:05:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 089 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
RADAR SHOWS PARTIAL EYEWALL NE AND MULTIPLE THIN SPIRAL BANDS
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
|
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
|
|
That's what I've been wondering.
I've followed the models/sat's and watched and watched since coming ashore
N of Belize that the has been throwing Alex into Mexico.
With some saying it would not get into the BOC.
Meanwhile since emerging into the BOC it's XTRP(Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog .... XTRP is the extrapolated movement, or the track the storm would take if it didnt change direction or speed. ...)
has gone from W to NW to NNW (with nothing but outlier models
predicting this Sun PM.
As the Models continue, as Alex has moved another 250-300 miles to the North,
with outflow now to be seen in the NW quadrant, to throw Alex now almost due W...
CLIPER5( and LBAR the only outliers following the XTRP) is a statistical track model originally developed in 1972 and extended to provide forecasts out to 120 h (5 days) in 1998. As the name implies, the CLIPER5 model is based on climatology and persistence. It employs a multiple regression technique that estimates the relationships between several parameters of the active TC to a historic record of TC behavior to predict the track of the active TC. The inputs to the CLIPER5 include the current and past movement of the TC during the previous 12_ and 24_hour periods, the direction of its motion, its current latitude and longitude, date, and initial intensity. CLIPER5 is now used primarily as a benchmark for evaluating the forecast skill of other models and the official forecast, rather than as a forecast aid.
Something has got to happen in the next 6 hours. Alex has got to stall, then turn
or get ripped apart by whatever is going to be throwing it into Mexico S of Texas.
IMHO
like the track still has it.
The Curious Incident of the Hurricane Dynamical Models One thing that strikes me(Dr. Rob Carver substituting for jeff@ Wunderblog as odd about Alex is that neither the nor the HWRF have been intensifying the storm into a hurricane in the past few model runs. This is intriguing because Alex is already a strong tropical storm(70mph now). It will bear watching to see if /HWRF continue this pattern for future storms.
Alex is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today... followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph... with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours... and Alex is likely to become a hurricane later today.
So shoot me. I don't know, eh. ;}
|
Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
|
|
An impressive thing, (at least for me) is the area of precipitation that Alex is spinning off. Yesterday morning we had some good sized thunderstorms go through the area. Intense ground to cloud lightning, and an almost constant rumble of thunder.
This morning so far we have had a good 15 minutes or so of a tropical downpour. Plus radar is showing more on the way.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Hard to tell definitely yet (more tme will be needed) but the motion may be more wnw now. If so the area immediately south of Texas would be the most likely point of land fall.
Watching the ULL east of florida as it continues to retrograded wsw toward the state. Not much low level development there, but certainly has moist environment captive. Some evidence of a lower level circuation in the visible.
--------------------
doug
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
To answer a few questions:
The thought that a hurricane can get strong enough to change its surrounding environment to the extent that the changed environment can alter the track (or intensity) of the hurricane is now considered to be a myth by most tropical meteorologists - at least as far as the 'track change' capability goes. For intensity, a strong storm generates a stronger anticyclone aloft (because of the outflow) so a minor environmental increase in intensity is possible (with ocean heat content as the primary driver for intensification - or decay). In rare cases a Cat V Hurricane may seem to alter the environment, but in order for a tropical cyclone to attain Cat V, the environment cannot be hostile to begin with.
Now for the models. For the last couple of days, has consistently stated in the Discussion bulletin that the east coast trough that cause a northward drift of Alex (and created shear that hindered the intensification process) would lift out to the north and east and that the western extention of the Atlantic ridge would redevelop over the northern Gulf of Mexico and curve Alex off to the northwest and eventually west northwest as that redevelopment occured. That process started last night and will continue today, tonight and tomorrow. There is nothing magical or complex about it - it is a very simple meteorological process. The models react based upon the data that is available for any given model run - and since that data varies, so does the model outputs from run-to-run. The models are guidance in determining the forecast, but they are not the forecast itself . missed the last 24 hour forecast point for 29/12Z by about 25 miles - not too shabby at all.
The intensity models are also just guidance - and they are the least developed of the tropical forecasting tools - so they are often in error and knows this.
Generally speaking, Alex is doing what said it would do.
ED
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
Looks to me like an eye wall is just about closed off. I think when it does there will be some substantial deepening as the water heat content increases
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
Yeah, the storm is looking much healthier this afternoon on Satellite. Rainbow IR shows that the entire center is pretty much wrapped up in convection. The western side of the storm is still pretty dry on convection, but apart from that, I wouldn't be suprised to see Alex upgraded to hurricane status next advisory.
EDIT: Eyewall shows up pretty well on current Water V. images.
Edited by JoshuaK (Tue Jun 29 2010 07:30 PM)
|
berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
|
|
Tell me if y'all think the center of Alex has made a sharp left turn and is now moving W to WNW in the past few hours. Alex likely to be hurricane at 11 pm ET...next package. Thanks!
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
