danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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They are supposed to be airborne right now. I've checked my email and multiple other sites for data and I don't see any.
No mention of a mission being scrubbed either.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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It looks as if recon took off, then turned around and went back. Not sure why at the moment.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Strange, They were tasked with an 18Z center fix.
At the turn around they were 150 miles offshore at 1730.
I haven't seen the first HDOB from the aircraft. Stealth mode?
edit danielw ~ AF 300 is inbound. 17:18:00Z 28.550N 89.483W
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2011 05:50 PM)
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JordanBell
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What is the best site to live track the flights. I am looking for path with meteorological data.
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University of Missouri-2012
Atmospheric Science-GIS Minor
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MikeC
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Quote:
What is the best site to live track the flights. I am looking for path with meteorological data.
Right now, probably http://tropicalatlantic.com/home/ more specifically http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
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JordanBell
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Thank you! Literally after I posted that, the .kmz file from that site started working.
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University of Missouri-2012
Atmospheric Science-GIS Minor
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doug
Weather Analyst
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the system looks like it is taking a hit, and does not look as well organized as it did this morning.
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doug
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Recon will likely find a TD when they arrive shortly. The system has a well-defined center, but it has been struggling with dry air in its northern half. Latest vis loop shows it trying to pull some moisture up the east side, but it's a slow process.
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doug
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Briefly, The system is showing the convection associated near the circulation center that was visualized on the Cancun radar has been diminished. There seems to be an infusion of dry air from the NE probably attributable to the trough there. The recon was to fix a center, and if they turned around, then an inference exists that the satellite presentation suggests that there is no center to fix. Hence they cancelled the mission. That is my take on the current situation.
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doug
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
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Loc: Spring, TX
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Recon is just really getting into the heart of the system right now. They should be in the process of trying to fix the center.
OK, make that 1006.4mb and 32.2 mph surface winds at 21.933N 86.933W
Edited by hogrunr (Wed Jul 27 2011 07:15 PM)
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doug
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Ok, If the mission was not cancelled then my bad. ( I was under the impression from reading above it was). The system is not as impressive as earlier either way.
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doug
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Hawkeyewx
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Recon finding a central pressure in the 1007-1009mb range with 35-40 kt west wind at flight level on the south side where the convection is. They didn't find much wind at all on the naked northwest side as they flew in. Definitely a TD.
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MikeC
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Quote:
Ok, If the mission was not cancelled then my bad. ( I was under the impression from reading above it was). The system is not as impressive as earlier either way.
'
From what I could tell it was likely mechanical trouble, they headed back and then left out again not too long later, they are approaching the "center" right now.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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At the second Inbound point: Center Fix Area
Coordinates: 22.0N 87.0W
Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the N (350°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Flight Level Wind: From 270° at 31 knots (From the W at ~ 35.6 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Estimated Surface Wind: From 250° at 25 knots (From the WSW at ~ 28.7 mph)
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2011 08:03 PM)
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MikeC
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Tropical Depression #4 is pending (best track), looking from recon data so far, it's enough to support a Tropical Depression, but not quite storm (although it's borderline). Advisories should begin fairly soon (by 5PM EDT at the latest).
It is possible for the first advisory to be a Tropical Storm, if more recon data comes in that supports it.
Late Edit: The latest pass of recon is enough to make it Don, it's up to the to make the call though.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO S CENTRAL GULF WITH
ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST OFF NE TIP OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...MOVING NW AROUND 10 KT. SEVERAL SHIP OBS THIS
MORNING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH 20 KT. SATELLITE SIGNATURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND CANCUN RADAR NOW SHOWING IMPROVED
BANDING AND THIS FEATURE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOON.
HURRICANE RECON CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL MOVES THIS LOW OFF TO THE NW AND INLAND ACROSS
TEXAS OR NEAR TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER BY 72 HRS. WITH LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT AND WARM SST'S THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION
INTO A STRONG T.S. BUT CURRENTLY SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS
SYSTEM TO 66 KT AT 72 HRS AS IT MOVES INLAND.
HOWEVER...THAT
BEING SAID...WE ALL KNOW HOW QUICKLY GULF SYSTEMS CAN BLOW UP SO
CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH THIS FORECAST.
REFER TO LATEST
STATEMENTS FROM WEB SITE.
THUS FAR THIS APPEARS TO HAVE A
SMALL INNER CORE WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO INITIALLY REMAIN
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. CURRENT OFFSHORE AND HighSeasForecast DO NOT ADDRESS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.
USED
ECMWF WINDS AND WAVES TO NUDGE FORECAST AS THIS TRAJECTORY WAS
MORE IN LINE WITH INITIAL TC FORECASTS.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2011 07:56 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Its now listed as 04L so they've up it to a depression
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I believe this will be in the SE Quadrant. If the NE Quadrant comes in with higher wind speeds, which is normal, they might go straight to Tropical Storm Don.
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 48 knots* (~ 55.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr* (~ 0.59 in/hr*)
Data courtesy of tropicalatlantic.com and google.com
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2011 08:17 PM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Pressure from recon 1000.9 mb, borderline TS/TD. It would be splitting hairs at either call by the .
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WesnWylie
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90L has definitely become a Tropical Depression with the page showing Tropical Cyclone Four, but it will be interesting to see if the goes ahead and increases it to a Tropical Storm for the 4:00 PM CDT update. TD 4 is looking very good on satellite.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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