M.A.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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An impressive burst of convection this evening. I cannot tell where the COC is located under the . I would not be suprised to see a significant drop in pressure tonight. Emily looks very much alive and well. the funktop looks amazing compared to a few hours ago.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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(danielw) You're absolutely right...and discussions about Emily verify this. If Emily remains shallow...not organized expect a more westward track. If Emily gains vertical depth she will feel the much larger hemispheric effects of the east coast longwave trough and be pulled between the two subtropical upper highs. Last season the performed extremely well...and is handling Emily quite well with zero north bias. My concern this evening is Emily simply isn't very deep and I see a 270 to 280 direction. I expect a continued shift to the left. Recent satellite imagery has convection over the surface center; however Shear analysis shows 20 knots from the west with the 200 mb upper high to the south of the system.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Thu Aug 04 2011 02:38 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Emily has split again... I'm not sure what is going on with this Tropical Cyclone. But it's nearly as good as watching televison.
I can't locate any satellite shots that would indicate the reason for the split/ bifurcation of the system. The little white speck on the eastern blue blob is a Convective Hot Tower spike. About two hours ago a CHT was seen near the center of the western blue blob. Which I thought at the time was an eye-like feature.
Do you think Vegas is putting odds on this storm yet? <img src="http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/cyclone/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 04 2011 02:47 AM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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noticed in the last vortex at the bottom they commented
RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD
I think the MLC to the east is decaying, but then again, thats what it looked like last night too.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hadn't been watching the Recon reports, for a change.
If the Center reforms SE that would throw nearly all of the models in the trash.
Similar to a penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct. Half the distance to the goal line.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I really Wish Dom Rep had a Radar that works ... I mean it's 2011 for heavens sake!
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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Im on the edge of my seat here, popcorn is in the microwave. I've been lurking here and watching storms for a long time. So far there is nothing typical about Emily. One hour she looks ragged and wavering towards being an openwave, a couple hours later, looks to be in rapid intensification. Vegas wouldn't touch Emily! Still all I can say is WOW, all the while scratching my head.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Repost of 11PM Update to the main page here:
al forecast, but they are quickly lowering.
From the official 11PM discussion:
"If a northward component of motion does not begin soon... or the track guidance shifts father to the left in future cycles... The threat to Florida and the southeastern United States will increase."
Emily may be going at another run of strengthening, in the last vortex message from recon, they spotted rapid thunderstorm development in the southeastern side of the system.
A gradual trend toward the west has been the trend all day, see the forecast lounge for more details (Or the model links at the bottom of the main page).
Unfortunately for Haiti, they will likely receive 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, which is extremely dangerous in that environment.
The next set of models run (0z) will have data from the NOAA Gulfstream 'Gonzo' jet that sampled the atmosphere to the north of Emily.
There are no changes in the watches/warnings. A new full official update will come tomorrow morning at 5AM EDT. This site will also be updated tomorrow morning with new information
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 04 2011 03:14 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Hello i do not post much i just read but i had to chuckle when you log in and see Without the hype since 1995..I love reading on here because good info and sadly a lot of hype.I mean the lead off f the 11pm update on here was the end of the one.Also i do not think i have read a post where anyone says it may even follow what the says only the ones of how can we make it go more west.
Sorry not trying to get anything going but it tends to get old reading posts of people trying to push it or will it to the mainland so there would be more action on here about it.
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
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Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
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Quote:
Beta and Advection Model (BAM)
The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically averaged horizontal winds from the to compute TC trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the impact of the earth.s rotation. The BAM is based upon the concept of a simple relationship between storm intensity/depth and steering levels. Strong cyclones typically extend through the entire depth of the troposphere and are steered by deeper layer-average winds, while weaker cyclones are steered by shallower layer-average winds. The BAM is run in three versions corresponding to the different depths used in the trajectory calculation: BAM shallow (850-700 mb), BAM medium (850-400 mb), and BAM deep (850-200 mb), known as BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively. The performance of the BAM is strongly dependent on the dynamical input from the . A divergence of the three versions of the BAM indicates varying steering flow within the parent model. Hence, spread among the three versions of the BAM also serves as a rough estimate of the vertical shear as well as the complexity and uncertainty in the track forecast.
Thanks for this info Daniel. This answers my question, but also provides some interesting data concerning what is happening in the steering levels when the models are split like this.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The number one question we get, "is it going to Florida?" The answer is odds are it won't and it will likely be a non event. We repeat that over and over again, but also state the fact that it is unclear, and what's much worse than hype is total abandonment of attention when a good third of the forecast cone is in Florida at 3 days out. Since several meteorologists sending me notes to not overly downplay it, along with a system forecast to between 50-60MPH winds that could be higher if the system misses Hispaniola, especially since recon has given indications that the mlc and LLC are becoming stacked.
The dry air and proximity to the large island will likely keep it from gaining too much, but it's still mostly observation.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Quote:
Hello i do not post much i just read but i had to chuckle when you log in and see Without the hype since 1995..I love reading on here because good info and sadly a lot of hype.I mean the lead off f the 11pm update on here was the end of the one.Also i do not think i have read a post where anyone says it may even follow what the says only the ones of how can we make it go more west.
Sorry not trying to get anything going but it tends to get old reading posts of people trying to push it or will it to the mainland so there would be more action on here about it.
If you want hype, you want wunderground.. every cloud someone sees over there will be a Tropical storm. Though the site is good for different othere aspects, the forum is full of wishcasters for storms to go to them.
Here you do have some real Mets the come on from time to time. Also some well educated in the field
of Atmospheric Science. There will always be someone that pops up and says something crazy, but in
general 80% here give out decent information.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Well obviously that post stirred the pot more than I thought. I don't think that we have too much hype here. If anything it's to err on the side of caution.
The current Cone includes part of Southern Florida and that is cause for concern. This storm is anything But predictable and a bit of hype might help get the message out.
It would suit almost everyone in Florida if the storm were to become a fish spinner. Unfortunately we have no control over that angle. That's Weather and Nature.
Some places in Florida need rain and this is one way of getting the rainfall. Most of the folks over in Texas would gladly take the rain.
We now return to our irregularly unscheduled posting.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Emily on IR Satellite has blown up quite a bit in the last several frames, that mention in the recon earlier is about the area where the high cloud tops are found. If this persists that may mean some strengthening in the short term. It will be interesting to see what the next recon flight finds. (Around 1:30AM if you were curious)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Ralph, just wanted to state that the main reason I come to THIS site is that for every bit of hype here, you get 10 pieces of solid meteorological information and education. Most other sites it is like 2 to 1 hype to info. It is an odd thing about us hurricane trackers that, despite all that we know about what these storms can do, we have this unconscious (or sometimes conscious) desire to experience what we track at some point in our lives and that can color the predictions. I must say after having cleaned up the mess after Charlie, Fran, and Jeanne that I am quite satisfied to get a near miss from a tropical storm every once in a while. Stick around here long enough and these guys will teach you stuff (and send you searching other web sites for info and cool radar loops). This is a low hype zone!!
As to Emily....she sure seems to want to come visit us in Florida and I am going to keep a close eye on her because of that. If I had just taken the forcast from 3 days ago as law, I might have tuned out and assumed it would get nowhere near here. Interaction with Hispanola and Cuba will tell the tale.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Thu Aug 04 2011 04:14 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I find the Navy site to consistently be the most on the money
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pr...ull/Latest.html
Really only time will tell when we see a well developed storm actually moving.
Loved his site...always have, always will.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Without Recon actually for another 30-40 min from this post.. I think (and a guess) its alittle further west around 17.3N and 71.8W moving about 290dg. I think some convection is flaring around the LLC and west of the main blow up.
I'm probably wrong as recon will tell us anyways.
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Long-time fan of the site, I haunt the forums every storm but rarely post. I have to say you guys have found the perfect balance between hard factual data and allowing discussion by enthusiasts and professionals. Keep it up and don't change a thing. Thank you to all the contributors for your unflagging dedication to keeping us informed. tells me what's happening, you guys tell me why. Love it.
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Let's see how close the satellite guys are to the Recon position.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2011 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 17:09:00 N Lon : 71:07:09 W
That's in DDMMSS. format in DD.MM would be 17.15N/ 71.10W
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 295
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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The discussion on Emily's development potential so far has focused on the environment above sea level, understandably so given the uncertain dynamics. I'm used to criticism for stating the obvious, check out the supportive upstream SST's:
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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