scottsvb
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It's still slightly more east. Would need a land interaction with DR for that to have a slight chance of happening. Otherewise a jump west by and followed by the .
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ralphfl
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With the 12Z UKMET AND THE 12Z the 2 outliners moving way east towards the and euro i can see them moving it a little more east again at 5pm about as much as they did at 11am which i think would take Florida west coast out of the cone if that happens.
The bottom line is you watch it and keep tabs of what it is doing and the trends and right now the trend continues to be east.
At least for now it is still 80mph and hopefully does not make cat 3 or 4 because a cat 3-4 storm would be up in SC/NC or even up more.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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So are you saying the is off? I thought they were the most reliable ones.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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scottsvb
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GFDL is the 3rd best model .(IMO) Just it's been to far off to the left the whole time and been moving east.
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MikeC
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Quote:
So are you saying the is off? I thought they were the most reliable ones.
The euro has been the most accurate this year, and the has been less so, but it did ok for Emily, if you look at "Maps and Coordinates" on the left, you can see the model plots back to 2005 to compare.
Right now the is the outlier, but it is still within the 's cone. The Euro has been doing better this year so far, and for Irene it's more easterly toward Wilmington, SC. The short range forecasts out to 2 days are probably really where you want to see the trends at.
In truth each model has its strengths and weaknesses and depending on the overall setup some do better than others. The may be picking up something the others are missing, but that usually washes out (By being too far west), and you wind up with something like the 's forecast, which all said and done, looks pretty good.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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The is just so far off from the others and I thought they are accurate. Thanks. I am just concerned the ridge might stay put and not shift her NW when they say it will. Will just keep watching!
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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LoisCane
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The model also has it as a very intense storm. It's very possible it's seeing the effect of an Intense Major and it's making it's on steering currents. Often there is a momentum factor with strong Major storms that take longer to move or curve. That's one of the only things I can think of other than it obviously sees a stronger high.
The would create a massive storm surge scenario that Miami has not seen since the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane.
Despite how reliable it is a model, all the others don't see what it sees.
Emily's track was perfect, she just didn't intensify and stay together if I remember.
What else the sees I don't know but it's hard to ignore.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
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GFDL has been wrong from the start... but anyways... I expect IRENE to really develop tonight into a CAT 2 or maybe CAT 3 by 11am Tuesday (as long as she stays far enough away from DR. Pressure should really drop tonight into Tuesday morning as everything is in almost perfect set up to do so. (Yes and Im usually the cautious Met).. lol
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MikeC
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There is a coordinated effort tonight to collect tons of upper air data, as a lot of the NWS weather stations will be releasing extra weather balloons and the Gulfstream IV jet will be taking samples of the upper air. So tomorrow's model runs should have a lot better data collection, and hopefully the eastern trend will hold.
As far as the is concerned, I'm discounting it until more data is available.
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GuppieGrouper
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Referring to the map of ridges and troughs that appeared and Berrywr spoke about. I thought I noticed a similar set up in the way that Jeanne or hovered in that same general area for a few days and still crossed central/south Florida as a major hurricane when all was said and done. I know that the scenarios are not exactly alike, but this did strike me as being one of those long range conditions that the models are not addressing yet.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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MikeC
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You are probably referring to Advisory 29 of Hurricane . Stacey Stewart goes into detail with the forecast discussion why the Gulfstream IV jet data was so important at that time to determine the strength of the ridging and movement of that storm. Until that detail is cleared up, the is an outlier. But to be honest, I don't expect them to find anything too far from what we already know. However, the is putting extra effort into collecting data, so there is some legitimate question about the ridging.
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weathernet
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Mike, are we pretty sure that all the latest data will be ingested in time, so to show up in the 0Z runs this evening?
There is no question that the Euro and Global models perhaps provide the most accurate forecasts. I perhaps find that the "sniffs out" potenial development faster than the more conservative Euro does. That said, once latched on I would perhaps test to slightly favor the Euro model. As amazing as the has been in consistantly forecasting development and general motion....it AND every other model that I can think of INCORRECTLY depicted Irene to go south of Puerto Rico and either direclly over Hispanola and Eastern Cuba, or others even farther south. Ultimately, each of the various models out perform the others given certain circumstance and conditions relating to so many factors ( lower latitudes vs. higher latitudes, size & strength of the system, or their ability to better mesh forecasted motion and development verses interaction with 's, Cut-Off Low's, Troughs, Ridges, etc. ). Even the LBAR has a purpose ( though if my life depended on it, I could not tell you what that might be 
I think those who might indicate that one or two models clearly present "the solution", and too disregard any other reasoning, would not only imply a degree of ignorance but furthermore understates the very difficult job forecasters really have ( well beyond any political/psychological media releases to keep the masses from panicking ). The key with the many models, are to have the knowledge to know their strengths and weaknesses, and to make the human decision how much weight to apply to them based upon each unique situation.
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Yhegler35
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What are the odds the is correct and Irene will hit Florida?
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MikeC
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Quote:
What are the odds the is correct and Irene will hit Florida?
About 5%, see here
not 100% sure on if the special sounding data will make it for the 0z runs, but it's likely. I'll try to find out, by 6 or 12Z for sure though. Some of the 18Zs coming out may have partial data from it. The data it's collecting (along with the other special soundings) is extremely important with this environmental setup in determining the future track of Irene. There is the NOAA jet, and an airforce plane also doing upper air soundings up right now over the area north and west of Irene. The is taking them very seriously.
Irene's center (Aka central dense overcast) is very symmetrical right now, and the best it's ever looked. South side of the storm is still rugged looking though and probably will remain so until it gets away from Hispaniola. North side is looking very good, although some elongation west to east.
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MikeC
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5PM Forecast is out, the offical track was kept pretty much as was (just shifted 12 hours ahead). Basically, the odds are trending away from Florida, but increasing for coastal Carolinas.
I would not expect any track changes until the dropsonde and weather balloon data is put into the various models.
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danielw
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0730Z MON AUG 22 2011
THE National Hurricane Center IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY (MON AUG 22) FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATIONS: KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE,
TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL, JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY,
CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY, GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON,
PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG, STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.
THE 12Z MODEL HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH GOOD UPR AIR COVERAGE
INCLUDING 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...73 ...10 MEXICAN AND 10
CARIBBEAN REPORTS...AS WELL AS ONE DROPSONDE REPORT AND 3 FLIGHT
LEVEL RECON REPORTS.
All of this is extra data from today. For input into the various weather models. I assume the 3 flight level Recon reports were the three Vortex reports. I hate to assume. Circumstantial evidence.
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vineyardsaker
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Assuming the track stays pretty much what it is now, what kind of storm surge does East Central FL risk?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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weathernet
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Just took a look at the updated 18Z runs of the and NAM. "Ditto" with regards to the NAM, while variances with the 18Z as compared to the 12Z are minimal. Perhaps up to about 60 hr., the slightest bit faster and perhaps 30-40 miles westward, then nearly identical NNW motion though seemingly a little slower motion once passing Miami's latitude. Ultimately the variance is negligable. I had understood ( from a different forum ), that approx. 1/3 of the dropsondes had been conducted and which data was injected into the 18Z run. My understanding was however, that basically all of the dropsondes were to have been conducted and the data to be ingested in time for the 0Z runs this evening.
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Random Chaos
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Irene is a huge system, and will take time to consolidate, and thus strengthen. The appears to be completely missing Hispanola, which is not good for us in the US since it means the interaction with the mountains will be minimal. It also means it is further north, and thus right of track. Based on IR history, I would say this is more likely a wobble due to the land interaction with Puerto Rico than an actual track shift, but that is not guarenteed.
Using the outermost feederbands, the storm is 700 miles across, though the center is very much toward the southwest of that total cloud mass. As the system deepens and spins up, the storm will shed the outer cloud bands and consolidate toward the core, an area I estimate to be around 100-125 miles in radius (200-250 miles in diameter), which makes it around the size of some of the larger diameter storms that occur in the Atlantic. This will slow it's strengthening (the shear size of it makes it more difficult for it to organize), but the SSTs are hot and very conducive to strengthening, so it might take less time than most storms would.
Keep an eye on the storm if you are anywhere from Florida through New England. Even if the storm misses landfall, we could have a major beach erosion issue for the entire Atlantic seaboard. Right now it looks like the gulf is out of the threat cone, but hurricanes can be erratic, and long range forecasts often change as the storm draws closer.
Edit: Spectacular animation showing Irene developing:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_irene.html
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 PM)
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Sheeper
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There is a LOT of uncertainty on the track. Our FEMA IMT just got put on deployment standby for "somewhere" on the east coast. No idea where I or Irene will end up!
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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