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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Isaac Struggling with Organization [Re: BayCoGator]
      #93486 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:49 PM

Yes, I meant 70.8 at that time. Now it appears to be closer to 16.9 N, 71.0 W, so it definitely appears to be headed in a WNW fashion.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: MikeC]
      #93487 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:49 PM

A couple of quick observations.

The most recent pass through Isaac fixed the center at 15.6667N 70.4333W at 8:14 AM EDT.

The image below shows multiple snapshots from the entire Mission #10 into Isaac, and you can clearly see the progression of the Vorts consistently heading west-northwest to northwest, from an initial location still pretty well south of NHC's plotted "center".



With Isaac seeming to have become a little less sloppy today, and with nothing so far suggesting that Recon found any better "center" to hang their hats on, it might be worthwhile to continue to focus as much or more on the center fixes provided by recon, than the "center" extrapolations being used by NHC, and thereby the model runs (which have consistently been generally north of HH fixes).

The 11 AM Advisory position has the center at 16.3N 70.8W. An extrapolation of Mission 10 center fixes would suggest the primary surface center at that time could have been much closer to 16.05N 70.9W, which doesn't sound like much, but with Isaac's center so close to mountainous terrain, even a couple dozen miles one direction or another can have significant influence on its actual future track and intensity, both modeled and verified.


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laurie66
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: cieldumort]
      #93488 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:57 PM

I live in Brevard county (East Central Florida) what can expect if anything from the storm? should I be finding someone to board up my home? Thanks in advance =)

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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 51
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: laurie66]
      #93490 - Fri Aug 24 2012 01:16 PM

In general, it is best to heed the warnings of your county Emergency Management staff who get detailed information from the NHC and provide specific guidance to people in their county based on the vulnerabilities they have already taken in to account in their analyses. I live just south of you in Indian River county and minutes ago I got an e-mail from my county emergency manager stating "heavy rain in squalls, gusty winds to 35 mph, and isolated tornadoes possible after Isaac crosses Cuba".

Most counties have text and/or e-mail lists you can sign up for that will keep you up to date of ANY weather emergency that comes up. It's better to get guidance from these official sources rather than us.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!

Edited by mikethewreck (Fri Aug 24 2012 01:22 PM)


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laurie66
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: mikethewreck]
      #93492 - Fri Aug 24 2012 01:19 PM

thank you for the information I am heading to their website now

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Marlinfan65
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: cieldumort]
      #93498 - Fri Aug 24 2012 02:34 PM Attachment (330 downloads)

The LL COC has been clearly visible in the last few hours and is tracking NW.
Appears that the turn NW has occured and I would not put South East coast of Florida
out of danger yet. Isaac still is not very well organized, but convection is again trying to wrap around the COC.
Looks like the latest models shifting east may be on to something.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: Marlinfan65]
      #93501 - Fri Aug 24 2012 03:15 PM

Recon just found a pressure of 995mb just off the south tip of the DR. The storm looks to be deepening albeit convection is currently lacking however it looks to be on the up turn.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: Marlinfan65]
      #93502 - Fri Aug 24 2012 03:17 PM

Isaac has become much better established this afternoon, with a new Vort about to come out near 16.78N 71.38W, probably also suggesting that Isaac is now down to around 995mb, possibly with maximum sustained winds closer to 65 MPH.

This looks to be the most stacked we have seen Isaac so far, and do agree with him having had a general northwesterly movement for several hours now, although long-term mean averaging might lead NHC to go with west-northwest-ish, for now.


Edit: Vort came out at 16.8N 71.5167W. Pressure 995mb.

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 24 2012 03:19 PM)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: cieldumort]
      #93504 - Fri Aug 24 2012 03:58 PM

Interesting late afternoon discussion from Miami NWS. They point out the shift east in models and while this is only one model suite of significant east shift the threat to south florida looks to be increasing...

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: cieldumort]
      #93508 - Fri Aug 24 2012 04:34 PM

Latest vort just came out a little while ago. Pressure is down to 994 mbs, center at 16.9 N 71.7 W. Max flight level winds were at 70 knots or so in the east quadrant.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Isaac Starting to Strengthen [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93512 - Fri Aug 24 2012 06:08 PM

Finally starting to look like a tropical system and also moving quickly off to NW as predicted, just took an extra 12 hours. It will be interesting to monitor tomorrow to see how land effects him. Watching the water vapor loop there is weak "channel" that appears to mirror the NHC forecast cone pretty well as that front lifts out. Several pop-up type clouds are appearing in this area. The push that Isaac was getting from above which was limiting his northern movement seems to be weakening as well. At the same time he appears to be squished a bit, out flow is not as impressive and the center core appears to separated into small (but tighter) bits. This might create a temporary surge in strength and forward motion as Isaac rewraps some moisture around the true center - which has finally appeared N of the blob we all kept watching track west. My big question is still how the mountains will effect him... he seems to be cut off from his fuel source at the exact time he needed the most. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see a weaker storm tomorrow AM.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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