Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95611 - Thu Aug 20 2015 02:30 PM

GFS over the past few years has had a hard time keeping a very small Atlantic system Recognized. I think this 1 is included. It will always show a weaker system after the first 12-24hrs unless the system grows in size. I do think Shear will be a problem by Sunday thus weakening this...but question will be...decoupling? or just keeping the system in check before land (if there is) interaction with PR and DR.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #95614 - Thu Aug 20 2015 03:03 PM

Think Danny will be walking a fine line after day 2. Although latest Visible imagery suggests that his envelope is expanding, and a bigger system will stand a better chance of not decoupling, especially if he can manage to stay just north of the islands. Ridge should build in after 97L moves north. Don't know if the trough in the eastern US will be moving out as (if) Danny gets closer.

Edited: should be Not decoupling and trough moving out, not in

Edited by Steve H1 (Thu Aug 20 2015 04:05 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: Steve H1]
      #95615 - Thu Aug 20 2015 03:35 PM

Historically models have a hard time with very small hurricanes.

This was a problem in 2001 with Iris.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/dis/al112001.discus.013.html

Just one example.d

Most models have problems with such small systems. Perhaps one is better than others and would like to know..if so.

Can't wait to get dropsondes in and data back for better reliable model runs.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: LoisCane]
      #95623 - Thu Aug 20 2015 09:10 PM

It is going to be a rough ride for Danny after he passes the Leewards. Sheer and potential interaction with PR will be tough to overcome.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95624 - Thu Aug 20 2015 09:31 PM

Suppose in the end it depends on which track he takes.

Through the islands or clipping PR on the NE side?

Intensity affects everything and not sure they have the intensity forecast down pat.

Tonight it appears Danny is growing in size some.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif

I like to be able to see all the various players on the larger loop. Floaters are wonderful, but sometimes we miss suble changes.

Will know when recon gets there.

This loop shows a larger Danny

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ft.html

Not a lot larger but it's a process I think. Possibly bulking up before the islands?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: LoisCane]
      #95625 - Thu Aug 20 2015 10:35 PM

While a (somewhat) larger Danny might be able to influence his immediate environment a touch more, an increase of wind field could also increase the odds that the cyclone bumps into and ingests the very dry air that surrounds the small cocoon of moisture the presently still small TC has been benefiting from.

Threading the needle, so to speak. Danny is a very small hurricane by global standards, and intensity changes both up and down could be rapid, with any downward intensity changes also possibly fatal, given the synoptic environment.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95628 - Fri Aug 21 2015 10:36 AM

The NOAA P-3 aircraft will be leaving around 10am EDT with some ocean based surveys and then a fly through of Danny in the afternoon.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95630 - Fri Aug 21 2015 11:26 AM

Looks like a last minute decision to head towards Danny first was made for Recon.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95631 - Fri Aug 21 2015 11:34 AM

I think Danny peaked around 115-125mph this morning. Sat estimates are usually under done by 5% and given such a small size..a even hard reading would of been possible. By time recons head out there, Danny will be Dir Min and shear will start to pick up some tonight.So it's too bad they weren't there early this morning when I think he peaked out. I will note that that shear 15-20kts will hamper Danny but not tear him apart. I think the shear will decrease some to 12-15kts as the TUTT moves out...but then a very dry pocket is in his way around 53W-60W and 16N-19N...directly in his path thus weakening him down to a TS by later Saturday afternoon or by Sunday. Like the NHC said...Land interaction will be the next faze. Will he go thru D Rep, or just north of it by Tuesday. We have time to see..and any talk of the U.S. right now can be put on hold till Monday to see how Danny is and what conditions will look like by next weekend.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95632 - Fri Aug 21 2015 12:15 PM




TropicalAtlantic is showing P3 radar updates if you have google earth installed.

Radar image link (Req. Google earth) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon....ar&latest=1




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95633 - Fri Aug 21 2015 12:26 PM

Recon's first brush Pressure ~968mb but not if that's the lowest.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95634 - Fri Aug 21 2015 12:36 PM

111knots, Danny's a cat 3.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95635 - Fri Aug 21 2015 12:43 PM

It does appear that Danny probably did max out within the past few hours somewhere in the 115-135MPH range*, within a very tight core, à la Marco (2008). Recon is finding some very stout winds and much lower pressure than has been estimated, despite the fact that the cyclone appears to be interacting some with the increasing shear.

What lies ahead for Danny could be very challenging for the microcane. The research mission flying in and around it has been finding dewpoint depressions on the order of 70 degrees. With increasing shear ahead, it looks supremely difficult for the cyclone not to begin ingesting this phenomenally dry air, and rapid weakening could ensue.

* And arguably on the high end of that range, for as Mike just mentioned above, recon has found 111 knots at flight level (12k ft), which would normally translate to around 100 knots +/- at the surface.



Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 21 2015 12:50 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #95636 - Fri Aug 21 2015 01:06 PM

Vortex message, highlights 965mb presure and the 111knot flight level winds. I'd expect the NHC to issue a special update.

URNT12 KWBC 211655
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #95637 - Fri Aug 21 2015 01:34 PM

The shearer is just ahead and on sat. is visible at about 55W.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tropical Storm Danny Hanging On As It Approaches the Leeward Islands. [Re: doug]
      #95647 - Sun Aug 23 2015 12:05 AM

After getting clobbered on Saturday, Tropical Storm Danny seems to be more robust than I thought that it would be with convection now refiring over the center again this evening.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Tropical Storm Danny Hanging On As It Approaches the Leeward Islands. [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95648 - Sun Aug 23 2015 07:37 AM

Quote:

After getting clobbered on Saturday, Tropical Storm Danny seems to be more robust than I thought that it would be with convection now refiring over the center again this evening.
ED



Feeling the same way. Danny looked pretty bad yesterday. I am noticing in one of the loops this morning Danny seems to be having some effect on the shear environment near him. If you watch the attached loop closely the high cirrus clouds, in the lower left corner of the image ahead of Danny, embedded in the upper level flow seem to be having their direction altered from the NE to the NNE and affecting the shear environment above as Danny approaches (to some extent that I can't quantify). I heard this explained in an earlier video blog by Levi Cowan,at Tropical Tidbits, but he expected this type of interaction with a stronger storm. This could explain why Danny is refiring even though the LOC is still partially exposed. Obviously this link is time sensitive and may not reflect what I am talking about in a couple of hours. SSD RBtop loop

Edited by craigm (Sun Aug 23 2015 07:39 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95649 - Sun Aug 23 2015 08:06 AM

Added radar recording of Antilles radar for danny at flhurricane Antilles Radar Recording of Danny approach

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95651 - Sun Aug 23 2015 10:05 AM

Added another radar recording of an Eastern Caribbean radar composite for Danny at flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Danny approach

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 17252

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center