Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | (show all)
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: EMS]
      #95814 - Fri Aug 28 2015 06:49 PM

Quote:


I think the challenge is the NHC is trying to average the model outputs instead of picking one group. Assume it's 12:30 pm but you don't know this. You ask 4 people to estimate what time it is - 2 tell you it's noon, 2 tell you it's midnight, and not knowing who is right, you decide to go with the average and estimate its 6 pm. You will still be way off. Same principle here - one group of models says it's going to dissipate, one group says it's going to intensify possibly to a CAT 1 hurricane and go north. Clearly one group is really on target and one is way off. But instead of choosing a group they are blending the solutions and coming up with an answer that is bound to be wrong, just less wrong than they would be if they chose one group of model outputs.




This is always the case, and while it may be more of a weakness with Erika than usual, in fairness to the NHC, the expert models are also expertly weighted, and when the forecast isn't verifying well with the expertly weighted averages, we still have expert humans at the helm to make other adjustments as needed.

The science is simply not good enough yet to always handle how these weaker, less organized systems interact with the islands. And this season is already a challenging one to forecast in.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95816 - Fri Aug 28 2015 07:31 PM

Quote:

The NHC never likes to make drastic swings in the forecast track unless absolutely forced to. But Erika's stubbornness on continuing west has created a bit of a forecast issue. They even mention that the models have consistently been wrong about it turning to the northwest. So much so the system has been outside of the cone of uncertainty (for the next point) since Wednesday




So at what point do they go with what they are observing and not what computers are telling them might (could or should) be happening out there since that predicted situation has failed to verify for 2 days now? The good news is Erika continues to take a path that prevents her from strengthening (over mountains, over land, thru shear), so at some point soon we will talking about a depression. Or worst case a small TS that will have very little time over before reaching FL. Unless this west trend continues to the point where she blows by Cuba and enters the GOM.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: JMII]
      #95818 - Fri Aug 28 2015 07:55 PM

Hmm the NHC's 8PM Track Graphic is bad, looks like prior coordinates. The misprinted the longitude in the advisory, (and it broke our automated system, so I'm sure it may have broken theirs.) I had to manually edit the coordinates on the left

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95819 - Fri Aug 28 2015 08:30 PM

Wow. Nice convective burst at 2345 UTC.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95821 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:23 PM

Was scanning the NRL pages

saw this



Very surprising that the system has that much convection around the center (south semicircle) for a system on top of Hispaniola.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95822 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:38 PM

Nice catch. It looked more and more like an open wave to me, even with the convective bloom. This clearly shows a mid or low level circulation.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: Doombot!]
      #95823 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:40 PM

Quote:

Nice catch. It looked more and more like an open wave to me, even with the convective bloom. This clearly shows a mid or low level circulation.




Those microwave images tend to pick up the mid levels, so mid level circulation. It's not a "sudden eye", more just curiously shaped at the moment. However, it means Erika hasn't completely fallen apart, which means it has a shot at strengthening if it does clear the islands. If it were actually like that at the surface, I'd be very shocked.

The other interesting bit, looking at older images from that, it seems to be on the WNW/NW path now (at least at the mid levels) If that holds a few more hours, it may clip just the extreme eastern part of Cuba, and make tomorrow a lot more critical.




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DaViking
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95824 - Fri Aug 28 2015 09:51 PM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: DaViking]
      #95825 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:13 PM

Added Cuban Radar Recording

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95827 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:22 PM

Noticing reports of 20+ inches of rain today in Haiti.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: DaViking]
      #95830 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:47 PM

The officially tracked LLC does not appear to be all that dislocated from the incipient/potential mid-level circulation seen in the CIMSS loop above. Microwave and Dvorak LLC fixing also suggests that it is, at least briefly, also pulling northwest across Haiti in tandem with this mid-level feature.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: cieldumort]
      #95831 - Fri Aug 28 2015 10:49 PM

What is your confidence level in that?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: cieldumort]
      #95832 - Fri Aug 28 2015 11:25 PM

The 11PM Advisory is out that included useful data from sondes dropped by the P3 flying around Hispaniola tonight. With this additional information, the NHC has been able to place the LLC close to 18.5N 72.9W, which continues the most recent wnw to nw heading.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: cieldumort]
      #95833 - Fri Aug 28 2015 11:30 PM

Added
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

Thanks DaViking


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95835 - Sat Aug 29 2015 01:03 AM

Glad we have that radar loop. We might of had a nice blow up this evening...but will it have a LLC by 8am this morning. Will it shoot out west and be south of Cuba near 19N and 75.5W or will it follow the WNW to NW path and be in NE Cuba or just offshore...near say 20.5N and 74.5W. It would be nice to still have a LLC to follow but also might just be a open wave with no more W or NW winds

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: scottsvb]
      #95840 - Sat Aug 29 2015 07:46 AM

The 5AM center of Erika is suspect, looking at the overall structure a lot of energy is being ejected to the southwest, and a circulation is visible north of the eastern edge of Cuba.

Recon is out there investigating the potential new center right now. If this does become the new center, tracks will shift right again, and Erika has a shot at maintaining or strengthening slightly. If the official center south of Cuba sticks, it is much less likely.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #95841 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:02 AM

Center relocated north of the island at 8AM. NHC is thinking dissipation, but recon recently found this:

SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 35 kts (40.3 mph)

Which suggests it may be holding. 11AM likely will shift back east again if they don't dissipate it. Lots of rain for Florida.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: scottsvb]
      #95842 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:06 AM

What is going on at about 21.8N/75.2W? Take a look at RGB. I am probably making out a low level swirl in my own eyes.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95844 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:10 AM

Erika out of the Caribbean, new article on the front page.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 35095

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center