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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Watching an Area in the West Caribbean
      #96225 - Fri Jun 03 2016 02:10 PM

7:45PM EDT Update 4 June 2016
93L Likely to become a Depression/Tropical Storm tomorrow night. Tropical Storm watches/warnings for Florida could go up late tomorrow.

From Miami:
"Another potential threat is tornadic storms. The latest model guidance is not painting a pretty picture for much of the southern half of the peninsula of Florida as lower level shear values will be increasing on Sunday night into Monday across the region.

This could pose an emerging nocturnal tornado threat late Sunday night into Monday morning, currently with a focus over Southwest Florida, that grows on Monday to include other portions of southern and central Florida by Monday afternoon and evening.
The 12Z GFS offers 0-1 km helicity values exceeding 200 m2/s2 over southwest Florida on Monday with the 12Z ECMWF not much behind that around 100 m2/s2. There is still great uncertainty with this system, but the tornadic threat may indeed present itself even if the storm center tracks further away from the region."

3:30PM EDT Update 4 June 2016
93L continues to spin, not terribly organized, but likely spots for it to organize are starting to become apparent, the low designated as 93l is actually elongated toward the northeast, and it is here, just along the western edge of the convection, where a system is most likely to form. This system is
better for "Blob Watchiing" rather than point watching, since the energy is mostly on the eastern side.



Development is possible late tonight, although much more likely tomorrow afternoon or evening. 80% chance for development overall. Regardless of how strong the system gets it will affect Florida with a lot of rain Monday into Tuesday, and could bring some short-lived tornadoes and minor coastal flooding along parts of the west coast of Florida. The amount of which is dependent on how strong the system gets, but it could come across as a depression to low-mid level Tropical Storm. If named, it would be called Colin.

Original Update
The system in the western Caribbean is now being tracked as 93L, current models suggest heavy amounts of rainfall and a possible weak to mid level Tropical Storm that could affect Florida starting Late Monday into Tuesday. It's important not to take too much stock in exact areas of landfall with the models since the system only very recently started to get organized, but the general pattern of a Florida impact seems fairly certain.

If the system is named, it will be called Colin. This would be all-recorded time early date for the 3rd named storm of the season. On the flipside, no named storms in the east pacific yet, which is usually backward from typical. Early activity has no bearing on later in the season, however.



How strong and exactly where is still out, but most of the energy in the system will likely be pulled east, so rain would be felt well before the center came across, the system would likely race across the state.

In short the system is likely to head north of where it is now, then bend to the northeast toward just north of Tampa (with most of the energy to the east) a fast moving and likely heavily sheared system on Tuesday morning. The primary threat is all the rain in Florida with a small area of mid tropical storm strength winds, and the possibility of some minor coastal flooding.

Heavy rainfall, some down bursts, and possible short lived tornadoes are what may be seen in a system like this.

More to come soon. The latest lounge speculation can be found At this link.


Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to race out to sea, but is looking better on satellite and may be upgraded to a Tropical Storm later today.

Buoy Camera off Yucaan for 93L (June 2016) 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX Recording
Flhurricane recording of Beach Palace hotel webcam in Cancun
Flhurricane recording of Florida Radar (w/ track) approach of 93L
Other webcams near Cozumel/Cancun



93L (West Caribbean/S. Gulf) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Bonnie Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bonnie


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bonnie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bonnie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bonnie -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:

WINK News 11 Fort Myers CBS

WBBH NBC 2 Fort Myers NBC

ABC 7 Naples ABC

FOX 4 Florida Cape Coral FOX

WFSX Fox 92.5 News Radio

WCCF News Radio 1580 Port Charlotte

News Press

Naples Daily News

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #96234 - Sat Jun 04 2016 09:09 AM

The recon flight planned for today is cancelled, the one tomorrow is still scheduled.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #96237 - Sat Jun 04 2016 05:14 PM

Added two image recordings, (more will come)


Bouy Camera off Yucaan for 93L (June 2016) 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX Recording
Flhurricane recording of Beach Palace hotel webcam in Cancun


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #96239 - Sat Jun 04 2016 10:36 PM

Really hard to pinpoint a center with this still disorganized Invest. The Best Track position at 05/00Z of 18.5N 87.5W appears to be too far to the west. A center may be trying to consolidate near 19N 85.7W but still too early to tell for sure.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96241 - Sun Jun 05 2016 01:02 AM

Center of system is slowly taking shape.
Rather easy to see the lines of cloud convergence in the SE Quadrant now/. Resembles the head of an arrow, over Jamaica



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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #96242 - Sun Jun 05 2016 01:59 AM

would be nice to have the radar link posted for Cancun.... usually you post them (ones that are not in the US ). maybe you did and I don't see it listed!

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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: scottsvb]
      #96243 - Sun Jun 05 2016 06:00 AM

I'll look and see if I can find the Cancun Link.

Here's the latest Color Infrared Satellite photo of the area. For comparison to the Sat pic posted above... 5 hours difference between the 2 photos.



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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: scottsvb]
      #96244 - Sun Jun 05 2016 06:08 AM

Cancun doesn't look to be online And they have updated their Website making my links, dead.
http://smn.conagua.gob.mx/en/observando-el-tiempo/imagenes-de-radares

Here is 400km radar from Belize.
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/400-km-radar-loop

Cuba Regional Radar.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/NacComp200Km.gif

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Stills and Loops- All of them.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/gmex.html

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 05 2016 06:29 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #96245 - Sun Jun 05 2016 06:42 AM

Buoy 42056 in the Northwestern Caribbean appears to be rather close to the center of the system.
Pressure has dropped and is maintaining around 1005-1006 millibars and sustained winds at 23 knots gusting to 33 knots.
Not quite Tropical Storm force sustained winds yet.

Sea in the are were running 10.5 feet with an 8 second period. Definitely some storms in the area.

Hurricane Hunters are tasked with an INVEST mission later today. If the system continues to consolidate I'm sure RECON will fly the mission. Departure is scheduled for 11 AM EDT today-Sunday.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #96247 - Sun Jun 05 2016 07:32 AM

Florida radar recording is on at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?201

Edges of it can be seen over Cuba now, and it will grow later today and the rain should be more over all of Florida tomorrow.

The stream of moisture over AL and the panhandle isn't part of this system but will be part of why the system gets kicked out so fast, as well as enhancing the rain even more later.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #96248 - Sun Jun 05 2016 07:41 AM

The buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056 reported a 39.9 knot (45MPH) gust recently, and pressure is dropping there still, my guess is the system will get upgraded to TD or possibly straight to Colin when recon gets out there.

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Watching an Area in the West Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #96249 - Sun Jun 05 2016 09:40 AM

It's certainly hard to argue against actual, empirical data such as hourly surface observations and/or recon data and the like..

Sometimes satellite, though appearing quite convincing ... 'spins' the truth (pun intended). We've seen countless times in the past, fantastic infrared displays and then as RECON gets in there they'll often find a comparatively weaker system. Other times, coughing systems have surprisingly nice closed circulations ...if perhaps masked by cloud debris.

In this case, as the slanted angle of morning daylight is now flooding 93L, from THAT perspective the best candidate location for a closed lower level circulation is displaced quite a bit WNW of the deeper (-80C !) cloud tops. In fact, I would place that observed center to be weakly bounded and situated ~ 22.5N by nearing 88 W as of 8:45. Meanwhile, intense convection aligns (with some tendency toward cyclonic curl) along 86 W, spanning over a hundred nautical miles or so..

There is no doubt that a fledgling TC is present. The main three, Shear, SSTs, and dry air, do not appear to be detrimental in the area. Shear is interesting, in that there is a region NW of the current best location of the fledgling system, but it is modeled to pivot away from the 93L as it gains latitude - this can actually provide "outflow channeling" which can actually assist TC development.

Multi-ensemble guidance source have been flagging this system with about the same frequency and continuity as they did prior to Bonnie. We are essentially still in the same basic large scale type of circulation over the Americas so ... perhaps logic alone dictates destiny here. Some of the more aggressive models actually go so far as to predict additional/new concerns much further down the road, do to that overall favorable environment; but that is obviously model conjecture for now.

It has been a while since we have seen this region come to life early in a 'Cane season, which is climatologically one of the more favored regions in June.

Persons in Florida ...and really west along the eastern Gulf of Mexico coast, should certainly keep notice of 93L.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Jun 05 2016 09:44 AM)


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