Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

#Maria affecting DR, Approaching Turks and Caicos, but very likely to stay well east of the mainland US. PR seeing the last bands today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 1 (Maria) , Major: 1 (Maria) Florida - Any: 11 (Irma) Major: 11 (Irma)
39.6N 67.9W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 987mb
Click for Storm Spotlight
20.8N 69.8W
Wind: 120MPH
Pres: 960mb
Nw at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Login to remove ads


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | (show all)

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1590
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE [Re: craigm]
      #99008 - Thu Sep 21 2017 12:52 PM

While a technical La Niña for the coming fall and winter is not a sure bet (forecast is about a 55-60% chance), even the cooler bias is useful in forecasting activity trends in the Atlantic basin for at least the rest of this year.

ENSO neutral conditions actually tend to be even somewhat more favorable for big-time banner years (2005, 2017, etc.) overall, but La Niña is very supportive of active to hyperactive Atlantic seasons.

Speaking just about the months of October, Octobers during La Niñas are usually about 50% more active than neutral - and October is right around the corner.

A few other things La Niñas can usually be counted on for: Increasing odds of sub-tropical cyclone formation, many of which go on to become fully tropical. Also, lowering of shear over the Caribbean, thus helping cook up and fuel deeply warm-cored tropical cyclones there.

This lowering of shear over the Caribbean heading into the back-half of this already hyperactive 2017 season raises some alarm bells, especially for the Yucatan, Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Bermuda. Many late-season tropical cyclones that begin in the Caribbean go on to impact these areas. (See image below)

Dr. Ryan Truchelut recently touched on all this with a good article in the Tallahassee Democrat (Link).

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1590
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE [Re: cieldumort]
      #99010 - Thu Sep 21 2017 03:17 PM

Above: WSI Proprietary Atmospheric ENSO Index
Credit: Dr. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice PhD in tropical meteorology
Meteorological Scientist with The Weather Company and IBM Watson

As ENSO is not at all just about ocean temperatures, but also very much about how the air above the ocean behaves, the WSI AEI product is informative, and has been showing 2017 in an atmospheric La Niña state all year.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith B
Verified CFHC User

Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE [Re: cieldumort]
      #99011 - Thu Sep 21 2017 06:56 PM

So what is this telling us?

Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
AEC Skywarn Orange County, FL

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | (show all)

Extra information
1 registered and 11 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Topic views: 7484

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center