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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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Verified CFHC User

Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
model question (Irene)
      #91562 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:07 PM

As of the 11am update, the NHC track has shifted east as most of the models suggest. My question is why the UKMET and GFDL do not follow suit? When so many other models call for a more eastern path, what do these two "see" or fail to "see" that cause such a outlier? Is it because these models work better with other types of situations?

Understand that I do not question the actual storm's path or validity of any models, just a more technical question about how they work.

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker

Reged: Mon
Posts: 356
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: model question (Irene) [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #91586 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:20 PM

I think the answer to your question was posted on one of the other Irene threads. Mainly it seems to be that these two models have the high pressure ridge to the north as stronger than it may end up being. A stronger ridge to the north would keep the storm from turning as early and results in a more 'west side' model track. These SHOULD begin to shift east in later runs as the weakness in the ridge is taken into account.

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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4240
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: model question (Irene) [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #91589 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:42 PM

This was discussing this mornings model runs, but the same guidelines go for now. although the 12Z GFDL isn't quite out ye

What the GFDL seems to be picking up on is just keeping the Atlantic ridge stronger through the period, which would force it more west if it occurred. This is a possibility, just not the most probable one.

Basically the ridge line for the GFS around the same period is along the NC/SC border, and for the GFDL the ridge line is near the FL/GA border. Look at the 500mb plots to see the ridge lines. This Animation you can see the "line" at 84 hours out running through the Ga/Fl border.

In this animation you see the GFS plot, which in 84 hours if you look for the line where the "yellow" turns to orange, you see it pass near the NC/SC border. This is a good representation of the ridge that is being talked about.

The GFDL is already a bit off, so the GFS is probably closer to what will happen. The cautionary note is that the GFS has a history of under doing ridges. The good news (for florida) is the consensus models have shifted east again, but worse news for the Carolinas. This will likely change more over the next 2 days.

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