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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Erin Lounge
      #100018 - Tue Aug 20 2019 08:42 PM Attachment (58 downloads)

The system in the Bahamas, continues to show some signs of organization, and I see on the NOGAPS, they have a small low trying to develop around Florida, then more development as it moves north then out to sea. ill attach some of the run


Title updated to reflect Invest tag (98L) just assigned - updated again 8/26/19 5PM AST to SIX.
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 27 2019 08:55 PM)


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Bahamas system [Re: Robert]
      #100019 - Tue Aug 20 2019 08:43 PM Attachment (65 downloads)

the run further along as the low is north of the Bahamas, previous showed it forming in the keys, however I think its forming further east.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Bahamas system [Re: Robert]
      #100029 - Wed Aug 21 2019 06:11 PM Attachment (60 downloads)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia.

1. An area of disturbed weather extends over the Central and Northwest
Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Some slow development of this
system is possible over the next several days as it moves toward the
Florida peninsula and then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch


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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 39
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Re: Bahamas system [Re: Robert]
      #100034 - Wed Aug 21 2019 07:59 PM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, extends over the Southeast and Central
Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible by late
this week as it drifts west-northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula. The system is expected to move generally northward near
the southeast coast of the United States and adjacent waters by
the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

NHC 8p update

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Bahamas system [Re: Keith B]
      #100040 - Thu Aug 22 2019 05:53 PM Attachment (68 downloads)

The low level center is now over the gulf stream devoid of deep convection just west of Andros, i believe the mid level to the east near off cat island is actually what we should be watching, the low level will hit run into florida and weaken at wich point the mid level will try and drop down over water. As it also moves northwest to just offshore southeast florida or over grand bahama island.

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Bahamas system [Re: Robert]
      #100044 - Fri Aug 23 2019 01:41 AM Attachment (63 downloads)

The OOOOz models are a bit disconcerting. Looking like the invest will not turn as soon as thought. Wonder if NHC revises its track of invest. Looks to be a very wet weekend if models are right. Then once over gulf who knows what will happen then.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 319
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Bahamas system [Re: dolfinatic]
      #100045 - Fri Aug 23 2019 05:26 AM

Quote:

The OOOOz models are a bit disconcerting. Looking like the invest will not turn as soon as thought. Wonder if NHC revises its track of invest. Looks to be a very wet weekend if models are right. Then once over gulf who knows what will happen then.



Just realized the shaded area that the NHC shows for an invest is potential area of development not track. If 98 were a TD S Fla would be in the center of the track cone. Most of the wet weather with 98 is on the east side of the low center so if it tracks more to the west we will have a wetter weekend but the shaded area will stay over water because it would never transition to a TD over land.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Bahamas system [Re: craigm]
      #100054 - Sat Aug 24 2019 09:02 AM

Quote:

If 98 were a TD S Fla would be in the center of the track cone.




Watching the radar last night 98L was literally right on top of S FL, you could clearly see the rotation. A real good representation of an area of a "broad low pressure". Normally these things are so far out to sea you only see the visible satellite of the clouds, but this time with radar you could see multiple small thunderstorms all chasing each in a loop.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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