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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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gailwarning
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100301 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:20 PM

If she has a flat or gable end roof, I'd be concerned. Is there a garage and is it a hurricane rated door? Will she have shutters? Most structures will hold up as long as the building is not breached. Roofs, windows, and doors are most vulnerable. Reinforce those areas if at all possible.

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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100302 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:28 PM

I also heard that, my friend. I don't know if that ever happened ...but it wouldn't surprise me if it actually did happen. Stay safe.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gailwarning]
      #100303 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:30 PM

Quote:

I want to caution folks with model runs, we don't have a trend yet (as far as direction) we do have a speed trend, though, slow. The shifts east on many of the models are welcome, but the UK and GFS ensemble set still indicates a lot of potential for it to go the other way. It just gets much more difficult and subtle when the storm slows down.



Thanks MikeC, every time I think I know what a storm might do, I seem to be wrong. Too much prep it misses, not enough it hits!

Definitely like the idea of this going out to sea, but happy I filled up my tanks today, and set myself up to batten down the hatches if need be.


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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 11
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100304 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:34 PM

Writing from central Abaco here in the Bahamas. Unfortunately even with the shift to the east in the model runs this evening, it still looks as if we will take a pretty much direct hit here according to the latest update

Any idea on when weather may start going downhill for us here?

Any trends that any of you more knowledgeable at there are seeing that might have us luck out?

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bahamaweather]
      #100305 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:51 PM

Quote:

Writing from central Abaco here in the Bahamas. Unfortunately even with the shift to the east in the model runs this evening, it still looks as if we will take a pretty much direct hit here according to the latest update

Any idea on when weather may start going downhill for us here?

Any trends that any of you more knowledgeable at there are seeing that might have us luck out?




The last post I saw from Bryan Norcross (which was earlier this evening) looked to be saying tropical storm force winds would be starting in the Bahamas area around you somewhere after Saturday 8pm EDT, maybe around 10pm? I imagine that's changed with the storm intensity changes, though.

--------------------
Londovir


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100306 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:52 PM

Quote:


Thanks MikeC, every time I think I know what a storm might do, I seem to be wrong. Too much prep it misses, not enough it hits!

Definitely like the idea of this going out to sea, but happy I filled up my tanks today, and set myself up to batten down the hatches if need be.




I usually see "the cone" and roll my eye at about 50% of it. I'm not dismissing any of it this time. This storm hits an H5, even if it doesn't land at all and it'll be in the record books for probably one of the weirdest storms ever. I'm but one small voice but I've never seen this in like two decades of watching.

Once Harvy was just rainstorms, his flooding was epic and the track of those storms was bizarre as well so I don't want to minimize it but Dorian is like that little storm that IS right now.

It's still almost two days out but people who are in Florida need to understand that there is NOTHING to be gained by hmming and hawing and wondering if they should leave. Those deals usually ending up with people telling you to "hunker down" and "avoid weight bearing walls in your house just in case it collapses" and "don't forget that some people can drown in their attics if the storm surge is high enough".

The storm surge is going to be epic wherever this hits. I think I'd rather be sitting in a hotel in Alabama or something..not home but not going to risk death/risk putting the fact you foolishly stayed and are now a weight sitting on the emergency response team's minds because you didn't get out when you should have.


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gailwarning
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: TheQueensBarge]
      #100307 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:55 PM

I need to add to that. Don't just get in the car and drive anywhere hoping to get a hotel room. Get a solid reservation before you go. I would be shocked if the rooms across a lot of inland FL are not already filling up.

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bahamaweather]
      #100308 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:03 AM

Quote:

Writing from central Abaco here in the Bahamas. Unfortunately even with the shift to the east in the model runs this evening, it still looks as if we will take a pretty much direct hit here according to the latest update

Any idea on when weather may start going downhill for us here?

Any trends that any of you more knowledgeable at there are seeing that might have us luck out?





Ummm, I don't think anybody disagrees that a 4th category hurricane is about to hit you directly. You have about a day before the tropical-storm-force winds and small t-stroms start firing. From then it's straight downhill.

Find a place to hide. I really don't know what else to say to someone who is about to take a direct hit from an H4. Stock up on water, if you have drains in a basement, plug them because the water will be coming up out of the floor and not draining because everything draining will be filled. Food. Sand bag your doors and easy access to your house by flood waters. If I lived in a place like that I'd have those zip sealable bags for putting clothing inside that are like small garbage bags. I'd put a bunch of clothing in those.

Pray? Geeze. My own prayers are with you.

I'm sure there will be some lunatics somewhere there behind normal glass windows drinking beers, cheering to the storm and partying like a possible life-ending hurricane isn't coming. I think every hurricane comes with a certain percentage of those people.

Maybe go hang out with them and steal their beer?

Actually I will give you some good info. Here's a prep list from one of the other forums: Emergency Preparedness Kit


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100309 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:22 AM

Not sure if I'm reading it right yet, but looks like the 0Z GFS is a pull to the right from the 18Z run, with Dorian staying off the coast of Florida (closest approach around JAX 1AM Wed), before raking Charleston 7PM Thurs and dragging along both SC and NC coastlines before exiting Nags Head, NC 1AM Fri.

GFS-Legacy hits a more definitive wall and doesn't even come as close to Florida, moving instead nearly northward into Myrtle Beach, SC around 7AM Wed, digging in a little of SC/NC, and exiting about the same place as GFS but 1AM Thurs instead.

I'll be curious to see the next Euro, though.

--------------------
Londovir


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gailwarning]
      #100310 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:24 AM

0z GFS shifted east toward SC (As well as the 0z Legacy GFS)
0z UKMET shifted to Out to Sea (Big jump from 24 hours ago)
0z Icon landfalls near Stuart

The models generally moved away from Florida today. Still plenty of time for that to change again. Hopefully it will still show that tomorrow at this time. The GFS spares the Bahamas from the worst. Not that there will be no impact to the Bahamas/Florida, but not a direct hit.

I wouldn't bet on just one set, though especially with the system hauling west right now, a little quicker than the models indicated.


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100311 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:34 AM

Quote:

Not sure if I'm reading it right yet, but looks like the 0Z GFS is a pull to the right from the 18Z run, with Dorian staying off the coast of Florida (closest approach around JAX 1AM Wed), before raking Charleston 7PM Thurs and dragging along both SC and NC coastlines before exiting Nags Head, NC 1AM Fri.

GFS-Legacy hits a more definitive wall and doesn't even come as close to Florida, moving instead nearly northward into Myrtle Beach, SC around 7AM Wed, digging in a little of SC/NC, and exiting about the same place as GFS but 1AM Thurs instead.

I'll be curious to see the next Euro, though.




Tough sell. There's some weirdness happening to the high over Florida. Check out the Goes.

GOES Wide Atlantic Water Looped

Looks like a huge storm is firing off the back of Florida? There's another low in front of Dorian that looks like its softening that high up. At the end of the loop, the wall blocking Dorian going far into Florida looks a heck of a lot weaker than it does at the beginning IMO.


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Rhino
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gailwarning]
      #100312 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:10 AM

Why do you keep saying it's less than 2 days out? It as 3+ days out right now, so there is a significant amount of things that can happen. All should prepare for worst case scenario at this point as there is still a lot of uncertainty this far out.

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rhino]
      #100313 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:41 AM

Quote:

Why do you keep saying it's less than 2 days out? It as 3+ days out right now, so there is a significant amount of things that can happen. All should prepare for worst case scenario at this point as there is still a lot of uncertainty this far out.




Sorry, I kept meaning the Bahamas. They're the first strike zone.

Right, it's a long ways away from the continental USA, especially with the slowing. It's still pushing West though.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100314 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:08 AM

As expected, the NHC track at 0500 has moved east, but conservatively. Will be interesting to see the 0600Z GFS in a few hours.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100315 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:47 AM

Quote:

The models generally moved away from Florida today. Still plenty of time for that to change again. Hopefully it will still show that tomorrow at this time. The GFS spares the Bahamas from the worst. Not that there will be no impact to the Bahamas/Florida, but not a direct hit.

I wouldn't bet on just one set, though especially with the system hauling west right now, a little quicker than the models indicated.



Increase in forward speed late in the forecast period is good news for already rain-soaked areas in Florida. Unfortunately, the shift of track to the east side of the peninsula, near and parallel to the coast from the Cape northward, will prolong Dorian's major hurricane status after the re-curve. 5 am update has Dorian at 125 mph crossing 29N just east of where I live (one block off the Atlantic Ocean in Volusia County) late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Best hope for my area if this pans out will be an eyewall replacement cycle offshore after Dorian gets past the Cape, similar to Matthew's 20-25 miles off the coast that spared coastal Volusia the worst of Matthew in 2016.

Intensity discussion from NHC 5am advisory:
Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to-forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period, increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to cause some weakening.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Sat Aug 31 2019 06:06 AM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100316 - Sat Aug 31 2019 06:04 AM

Quote:

As expected, the NHC track at 0500 has moved east, but conservatively. Will be interesting to see the 0600Z GFS in a few hours.



From NWS Melbourne pre-dawn discussion:
Sun-Tue...Hurricane Dorian is forecast to remain a major hurricane as it moves W to W/NW reaching Great Abaco and Grand Bahama late Sunday/Sunday night along with a decrease in forward speed. A break in the ridge aloft should allow Dorian to turn NW to North
Mon-Tue, bringing this major hurricane close to the Florida east coast. 00Z Model guidance has shifted the track to the east, a little farther offshore the coast. If this trend persists, this would reduce but not eliminate the wind and (rain) flooding threat over EC FL. However, severe beach erosion and some surge remain likely. It is important to note that all of east central Florida remains in the track cone of uncertainty. Due to the trend in model track guidance, NHC has not issued a Hurricane Watch yet for any of FL but a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is possible later today along portions of the FL east coast.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100318 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:43 AM

Big shift east overnight to the track forecast. Looking better for FL, especially S FL (Dade / Broward) as we would be on the weak side of a strong, but compact storm moving away from us.

For the Bahamas this is when small wobbles could mean big differences. Dorain still has a small wind field so +/- 20 miles could shift wind speeds by 50 mph in your location. Two good visualization tracking tools below:

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap - use this map with the satellite and hurricane layer on, it has the NHC line and you can zoom in to see the eye relative to the forecast and your location. Not sure how good the Miami radar sees far out but there is a radar layer too you can toggle.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ - go here, click on Dorian, a popup window will show a map and the track, you can animate and turn on various layers, I find the water vapor at 2km or the visible (IR at night) at 1km to provide the best picture of the situation.

Currently tracking right down the line. As many learned during Charley a slight turn could be a signal... however these storms do wobble so if he is off course don't panic and try to work out the long term motion.

We just got our first feel of Dorian... a downpour from an outflow channel that got caught in the ULL that is now over Cuba. Via radar I see several pop up style rain storms moving rapidly from east to west heading our way. I assume it will be like this for the next 3 days (thru Tuesday) but with increasing intensity and duration. They will come and go quickly. As Dorian passes we may experience what PR got and got stuck in a long tail of "training" style rain, leading to localized flooding thru Weds.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100319 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:46 AM

I'm out but noticed recon approaching cat5. No gulfstream 4 data yesterday and today may underrepresented the ridge strength, which when it's this borderline is a facror

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 183
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100320 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:48 AM

I feel somewhat ashamed to ask this. But it has been a while since I spent a lot of time looking at models, and my old links aren't so good. I wandered through the links page, but can anyone point me to a couple of good sites to loop through various model runs? Can't seem to find my old favorites. I must be getting old and can't remember things. LOL

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 317
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100321 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:52 AM

Quote:

I feel somewhat ashamed to ask this. But it has been a while since I spent a lot of time looking at models, and my old links aren't so good. I wandered through the links page, but can anyone point me to a couple of good sites to loop through various model runs? Can't seem to find my old favorites. I must be getting old and can't remember things. LOL




Here ya go
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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