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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100322 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:52 AM

https://www.cyclocane.com/dorian-storm-tracker/

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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100323 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:53 AM

This is my go to page:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 183
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gsand]
      #100324 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:01 AM

Much appreciated!

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100325 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:24 AM

Got a bit of Venturi effect going on between the ULL to the SW and ridge to the NE causing this acceleration. Dorain outran some of his own outflow as the western edge collapsed but is now rebuilding. Very dynamic environment. Motion just N of due W, right on the NHC line still.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100327 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:28 AM

11AM update and another shift east, might never reach the coast of FL and stay out to sea (fingers crossed). Very close to Cat 5 levels here, but still small with hurricane winds ony out to 30 miles, but the TS winds have expanded slightly out to 115 miles, however they vary widely.

Central FL and Space Coast still need to keep close tabs on Dorian. JAX is look at another bad surge event due to a prolonged onshore flow.

Going to slow to a crawl over the northern Bahamas (brutal for them) then take the opening in the ridge to the north.


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greywolf
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100328 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:02 PM

Hi folks - newbie here. Really appreciate the knowledge many of you have, I have learned a lot in just
the last week or so. One question (and I hope it is not a dumb question): in looking at the analog storms
to Dorian, I couldn't help but notice that all but one (Andrew, I think) took a rather similar path to Dorian......
initially heading NW toward Florida, but then eventually veering to the N/NE, and never making landfall. Is it just
a coincidence that Dorian took about the same path, or should we be putting more faith in the analogs as
predictors of what may happen? I know that the reason Dorian is now veering to the E/NE is that the high
pressure ridge to the north is now breaking up, and I have no idea whether a similar scenario would have
happened with most of the analogs, but I'm guessing that is very unlikely. Any thoughts/comments?


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100329 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:03 PM

12z models starting to roll in. Some appear to be announcing that a certain amount of windshield wipering could be going on, as models continue to adjust to a) the ULL/MLL to Dorian's west having never pulled further south as earlier expected b) Dorian's arrival to the area still running behind earlier schedules c) Dorian kept tracking a bit north of expected (largely in response to a+b+strength) d) New surface low attempting to form in the Gulf west of Dorian that could be imparting a little touch of extra umph in the upper-levels related to its thunderstorm tops blowing off e) Failing to initialize Dorian's intensity correctly (usually initializing much weaker than reality) f) etc. .. Really, a myriad of mostly subtle but yet, taken together, substantial, synoptic + mesoscale changes. Therefore, until Dorian actually begins a pronounced and persistent track to the north, it is not all clear for Florida - especially not along the east coast of Florida.

Meanwhile, points north in the cone (Georgia to the Carolinas in particular) should begin considering making some initial hurricane prep, as while a track out to sea is now on the table (less likely, but certainly hoped for), inaction or insufficient precaution in the face of such a strong tropical cyclone could prove unwise.


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Steve86
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100330 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:06 PM

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/08/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif



Looking at this, maybe I’m a little confused, but does t it appear as if the opening in the ridge is actually closing off over Florida and grabbing onto the the high that is to the west of Florida?

There was definitely n opening late last night and this morning but now it seems to be closing the gap.

What is your thoughts??


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 970
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100331 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:21 PM

Could not agree more. In the current sat view the trough in the mid CONUS does not seem to be making the progress anticipated. If anything the turn in the steering currents to the north has actually shifted further west than last nights position and the low to its south west is inhancing the east to west flow across the peninsula

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doug


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ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100333 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:32 PM

I am seeing the same thing and the 12Z GFS run has shifted west a bit.

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100334 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:53 PM

Some of the new model runs shifted ever so slightly west. Probably to be expected with the tricky timing of a north turn around the high. You can see the lows stacking up, though. It does look like Dorian has moved a little more north than west recently. We'll see what the 2pm coordinates tell us.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100335 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:59 PM

Quote:

I am seeing the same thing and the 12Z GFS run has shifted west a bit.




So maybe back to something like 2AM advisory #27 cone. Weak steering currents and potential stall would open up a whole can for worms. Ridge is stronger then forecast would hinder northern movement. The ULL appears to be sinking more SW. The next front might be coming in quicker, does that block or lift Dorian out? The ridge to the NE is coming down hard. Lots of variables still in play. Currently still on the NHC line, a wobble here or there but primarly due W. Basically stuck on 26N.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100336 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:31 PM

All is relatively calm here in southwest Seminole county. Was able to find gas on my first try, but they only had regular. Only one of my neighbors is partially boarding up. I am going to wait until tomorrow morning to decide to board up and I may just do bedrooms and north and east facing windows. Can do the rest later. Still a lot of time for that decision.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 818
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100337 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:38 PM

I give up.After 40 plus years of tracking these things,I give up.Now this one may miss Florida all together.All our high tech and this happens.I need a new hobbie.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge *DELETED* [Re: Psyber]
      #100338 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:39 PM

Post deleted by kspkap

Edited by kspkap (Sat Aug 31 2019 02:14 PM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100339 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:48 PM

I hate it when run to run "fine-tuning" flops around like a flounder when splitting hairs is required- but its understandable given the subtle yet dynamic situation with such a formidable hurricane.
Please keep this rapid-fire, candid discussion of Dorian's influencers coming in. It helped me greatly in deciding to stay during the last hours of Matthew's run toward my coastal Volusia location.
I haven't let my guard down yet- and won't until Dorian clears the Cape's latitude a minimum of 75 miles offshore. My neighbors fled during Matthew (saw that I stayed). I stayed for Irma they did too. Don't know if the "Hey Mikey- he likes it!" effect came into play, but the neighbors declared "all clear" based on the 11 am advisory.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: AgentB]
      #100340 - Sat Aug 31 2019 02:21 PM

12z Euro is rolling out now. Track as far as positioning off the coast of FL doesn't look all that different.

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Check the Surf


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: AgentB]
      #100341 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:23 PM

Quote:

12z Euro is rolling out now. Track as far as positioning off the coast of FL doesn't look all that different.




Wow, incredible curve overnight. Much more and we might have a spinner after the Bahamas! It sped up even with that relatively high/unchanged pressure...that has to be the top of the scale for pressure/strength of storm.

Let's pray for a northern hit on the Bahamas and hope just a wee bit more curve so it doesn't chew up the Eastern Seaboard!

What a change from barrelling into Florida straight on from last night!


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100342 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:31 PM

This graphic someone posted on Reddit (/u/fighterace00) that combines the track of Dorian with overlays showing the uncertainty cones is really interesting to see:



It really drives home how Dorian has tended to stay on the north/right side of the uncertainty cone for most of its entire run so far.

--------------------
Londovir


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100343 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:43 PM

Great graphic. Also of note is how much more clustered the model runs are recently with the new recon data added. The spread was really wide during the TS phase.

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