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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100344 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:43 PM

Quote:

This graphic someone posted on Reddit (/u/fighterace00) that combines the track of Dorian with overlays showing the uncertainty cones is really interesting to see.
It really drives home how Dorian has tended to stay on the north/right side of the uncertainty cone for most of its entire run so far.




Yes, Dorian has favored the right side of the cone. However, the steady west to WNW track through today may flop Dorian onto the left side of the cone in the days to come. I'd like to think that the cone stays ahead of the actual track, but often it seems the other way around.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Sat Aug 31 2019 03:46 PM)


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TheBeach
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Biloxi, MS
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #100345 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:53 PM

You spoke of a concrete home on the beach in Long Beach, MS that withstood Katrina. I remember when that was built after Camille. It replaced a beautiful old antebellum home. (I grew a few blocks from there.)
My father had built a home on the bayou in Bay St. Louis just before Katrina. His was a wooden structure on wooden pilings. ALL of the houses in that area were on concrete pilings, and not even the pilings were left after Katrina. However, my father's house stood, including the roof, though it was gutted.
The point is DO NOT trust in the building materials of a home when facing a hurricane! IF you are in a zone that needs to evacuate, GET OUT!

--------------------
Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.


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Steve86
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100346 - Sat Aug 31 2019 04:01 PM

It seems as if the weakness in the high that was expected may be the spot that has nearly closed back in to the NE of Dorian. The high definitely seems to be building strong to the north of Dorian and the 2 seem to be in a battle possibly causing some of what appears to be north to south wobbles at times. Even the HWRF model has picked up on this recently and had a dramatic move back to the west. Everyone will need to pay close attention now through Monday for last minute changes.I think there are a lot of people in Florida after seeing this mornings track who were like oh it’s not a Florida storm now. (the news media def. seemed bummed)

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100347 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:06 PM

1700 NHC update is out and I see no discernable change to the track.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100348 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:07 PM

No real change for 5PM other then TS watches from Deerfield to Sebastian. The situation for the Bahamas is looking like worse case, 24 hours of Cat 4 pounding

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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100349 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:53 PM

Looks like 18Z GFS and GFS-L are working on my one source right now, and they are definitely west and south up to the 72 hour mark. Once again, the models are having a hard time with the ridge and other effects in play. We could possibly see another shift of the track/cone back to the left at 11pm.

--------------------
Londovir


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100350 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:55 PM

18z GFS is posting now. Looks like a smidge to the west, but with the eye still offshore. If I lived east of 95 anywhere north of the storm's current position, I would still be preparing for the possibility of it going right over my house. There's still time to make preparations in a controlled, relaxed manner so you don't forget anything.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge *DELETED* [Re: TheBeach]
      #100352 - Sat Aug 31 2019 06:20 PM

Post deleted by kspkap

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #100353 - Sat Aug 31 2019 07:16 PM

It does appear the 18Z GFS has gone a bit west. Let's see the 00Z Euro when she comes out. I have no plans in SW Seminole county to board up, unless the situation changes and is forecast significantly more west.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100354 - Sat Aug 31 2019 07:26 PM

I've been a bit too busy for a full rundown, but it looks like offshore is still the most likely (for Florida), however the GFS, and in particular the 18Z HWRF are shifting west again, HWRF is close enough for problems in Florida. Edit: shows landfall at Cape Canaveral /New Smyrna Beach Tuesday night.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


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Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100355 - Sat Aug 31 2019 07:38 PM

18z runs in general so far following the trend today of shifting a little bit back west and/or southwest, possibly solely the result of a forecast for a faster forward motion until the turn begins. As Levi Cowen (Tropical Tidbits) and others have pointed out, a mere one mile-per-hour error in forward speed until the turn north begins results in a 72 mile difference if the turn starts in 72 hours (and thus 72 miles closer to the coast - or even inland, if that 1 mph is faster than previously forecast).

Averaged NHC track error for the period 2010-2018 at 72 hours out was about 115 miles. No time to let one's guard down.


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100356 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:00 PM

I normally don't say anything against our local mets (and, in fact, the last 3 days or so I've been fairly aggressively defending them against general public negativity on social media), but I have to say that I'm a little disappointed at the significant "all clear" sentiments that have been spreading here in west central FL by the local mets. They're already essentially putting out on SM sites that the storm will pass by the coast, and although that's [hopefully/probably] going to happen, I think the general model uncertainty and difficulty in analyzing this storm should be keeping them more guarded with what they're putting out right now.

The 18Z runs were all of a similar mind in nudging the storm westward from prior model runs, with the HWRF going so far as to call a landfall/ingress above the Cape - it shows how uncertain this prediction will be. I'm curious as to whether it could be a result of that missed Gulfstream flight that didn't provide updated data for the more recent runs that is now causing them to use "stale" data (do they input old/stale data for models which use them, or just run them without those parameters?). It seemed like when the original atmosphere data rolled into the models, they began their turn to the right, and now that we missed that one set of samples, the models are lagging back to the left. I feel like we have a serious need for all of the atmospheric data we can get for this storm, as the timing of ridges and troughs will make or break the path for sure.

Time will tell.

--------------------
Londovir


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100358 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:09 PM

Quote:

I normally don't say anything against our local mets (and, in fact, the last 3 days or so I've been fairly aggressively defending them against general public negativity on social media), but I have to say that I'm a little disappointed at the significant "all clear" sentiments that have been spreading here in west central FL by the local mets. They're already essentially putting out on SM sites that the storm will pass by the coast, and although that's [hopefully/probably] going to happen, I think the general model uncertainty and difficulty in analyzing this storm should be keeping them more guarded with what they're putting out right now.

The 18Z runs were all of a similar mind in nudging the storm westward from prior model runs, with the HWRF going so far as to call a landfall/ingress above the Cape - it shows how uncertain this prediction will be. I'm curious as to whether it could be a result of that missed Gulfstream flight that didn't provide updated data for the more recent runs that is now causing them to use "stale" data (do they input old/stale data for models which use them, or just run them without those parameters?). It seemed like when the original atmosphere data rolled into the models, they began their turn to the right, and now that we missed that one set of samples, the models are lagging back to the left. I feel like we have a serious need for all of the atmospheric data we can get for this storm, as the timing of ridges and troughs will make or break the path for sure.

Time will tell.




Oh there's no all clear. Even if Dorian stays out to see, storm surge and a whole pile of thunderstorms/rain are still coming. 20:00 discussion says up to 12 feet depending on where you are which one heck of a lot of Florida under water if 12 feet actually hit. There are A LOT of places that are under 10 feet in elevation.



Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 31 2019 09:29 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100359 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:27 PM

Quote:

Edit: shows landfall at Cape Canaveral /New Smyrna Beach Tuesday night.




Levi's update shows this as well. The timing is super critical. A faster west motion could bring Dorian ashore, where slower motion keeps him offshore. We will have radar coverage on this approach so it will be a frame by frame now-cast. Given the narrow wind field its almost an all or nothing situation. If he stays offshore just TS winds, but just 50 miles more west could bring the Cat 4 winds onshore. Currently Dorian is tracking about an eye's width to the right of the NHC line. He went due W for awhile, now jogging WNW again.

At closest approach he will be only 100 miles due E of Jupiter FL.


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Steve86
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100360 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:34 PM

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/08/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif

I’ve been watching this all day.

It is interesting to see how the ULL, high pressure, Dorian and the jet stream have been interacting.

It now looks as if the front that was coming across the US is trying to push an opening through the high pressure to Dorian’s NE.

Is this where the HWRF model may be gathering its new model info?
Could it help propel Dorian further west if it breaks through to its east with a partial high still sitting over Dorian?
We are on the east coast of fl and watching closely.
Everyone stay safe.
Let’s push this thing east.


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SteveV
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Loc: Rockledge, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100362 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:17 PM

I seen "Florida Panhandle" apparently misused more than once recently, so I must ask if the part of Florida containing Pensacola is actually what was intended in this statement? I think you mean the Florida Peninsula (i.e. the part containing Orlando, Tampa, and Miami), right?

Sorry, I'm a bit stressed out these days (living in Rockledge, FL) and simple errors that I can find always concern me because it makes me wonder how many errors are present that I do not recognize as such. And I really want to understand the things I read here.

Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 31 2019 09:26 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: SteveV]
      #100363 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:27 PM

They don't use stale data, just less of it. There isn't as much upper air data over the open ocean as over land.

Eye is now visible on the Bahama's radar at http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

There's a few webcam recordings from Abaco over on http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Dorian+%282019%29


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100366 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:33 PM

Reminder This is a hurricane forum specifically for discussion about Dorian's forecast (models, hunches, etc.).
Unrelated posts will be edited or deleted in their entirety. Thanks.


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100368 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:40 PM

Quote:

They don't use stale data, just less of it. There isn't as much upper air data over the open ocean as over land.

Eye is now visible on the Bahama's radar at http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

There's a few webcam recordings from Abaco over on http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Dorian+%282019%29




Wow doesn't it appear that there are many outer bands on that, are there?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100369 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:59 PM

Bahamas radar is what it is at that long range, Sat photos and the plane radar is probably better for this.

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