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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100370 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:03 PM

Local met is reporting the recon pass had estimated surface wind of 150kts (172mph) and pressure of 939mb. Looks like we're going to be seeing Cat 5 at the 11pm advisory, which puts the storm over the forecast intensity. (Although, of course, pretty much everyone knew this storm would be rolling unhindered into optimal conditions for intensification.)

--------------------
Londovir


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100371 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:09 PM

Looking at the Sat it is moving in a stright line almost as with that perfect center you can see it easy. My question is that it is moving along at a ok speed what is to stop it from keeping going right along into the east coast of florida?

Edited by chance (Sat Aug 31 2019 10:10 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100372 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:18 PM

Quote:

My question is that it is moving along at a ok speed what is to stop it from keeping going right along into the east coast of florida?




The weakness in the ridge to the north: Tropical Tidbits YouTube

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100373 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:24 PM

hey JM, but the ridge is stronger than the data the models had earlier in the day = shift West

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100374 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:27 PM

Want to call out our twitter feed on the left (or link http://twitter.com/cfhc )
We're updating it with retweets of interesting info on Dorian, including a few experimental models.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100375 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:30 PM

938 mb, surely going to Cat 5 next advisory.
https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1999_charts/at199906.gif
Look familiar?

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100376 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:31 PM

All i know is it does not look like it is slowing down when was it suppose to slow down and almost stall?

Edited by chance (Sat Aug 31 2019 10:32 PM)


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100377 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:35 PM

Quote:

We're updating it with retweets of interesting info on Dorian, including a few experimental models.



What is this "IBM" model?


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100378 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:43 PM

Quote:

All i know is it does not look like it is slowing down when was it suppose to slow down and almost stall?




Sun PM thru Mon PM, for now slow and steady W. Need the 11PM update for track, intensity and forecast adjustments


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100379 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:51 PM

Quote:

Quote:
We're updating it with retweets of interesting info on Dorian, including a few experimental models.

What is this "IBM" model?



IBM Deep Thunder "is a research project by IBM that aims to improve short-term local weather forecasting through the use of high-performance computing. It is part of IBM's Deep Computing initiative that also produced the Deep Blue chess computer.

Deep Thunder is intended to provide local, high-resolution weather predictions customized to weather-sensitive specific business operations.[1] For example, it could be used to predict the wind velocity at an Olympic diving platform, destructive thunderstorms, and combined with other physical models to predict where there will be flooding, damaged power lines and algal blooms. The project is now headquartered at IBM's Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York." - Wikipedia

It's been out for a while and has been impressive so far - proprietary The Weather Company (IBM) model. (More info here)


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100380 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:01 PM

Quote:


Deep Thunder is intended to provide local, high-resolution weather predictions customized to weather-sensitive specific business operations.[1] For example, it could be used to predict the wind velocity at an Olympic diving platform, destructive thunderstorms, and combined with other physical models to predict where there will be flooding, damaged power lines and algal blooms. The project is now headquartered at IBM's Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York." - Wikipedia

It's been out for a while and has been impressive so far - proprietary The Weather Company (IBM) model. (More info here)




The problem with ultra-large forecasting suites is ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS the inputs into the model. How certain traits are weighted. To me there is always going to be a necessity for a human eye on certain things until they're able to take visual date from dopplers. For instance, if the windfield/outer bands of this storm were actually normal and present for this power of storm, the whole forcast changes because it would most definately being going more west. They need to find a way to quantify cold heads and how storms are firing in front of the storm,,,and any weather that will feed the storm.

Just seeing the NHC 200 miles wide up until a day ago shows how behavior and some of the things that are hard to quantify can really change a track.


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100381 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:02 PM

Quote:

It's been out for a while and has been impressive so far - proprietary The Weather Company (IBM) model.




That's concerning to hear from you as their model right now has Dorian tearing Florida up!

Interesting. I know a lot of us with personal weather stations have been frustrated with IBM/Weather Channel taking over Weather Underground that we loved for so many years. But hey, I am not one to stand in the way of change, as long as it works out OK.


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100382 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:02 PM

11PM stays the same no cat 5 yet and slow down tomorrow night and still may clip the east coast. I love this site it is not filled with people yelling at the NHC and being normal rather then wishing it somewhere

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100383 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:08 PM

Quote:

11PM stays the same no cat 5 yet and slow down tomorrow night and still may clip the east coast. I love this site it is not filled with people yelling at the NHC and being normal rather then wishing it somewhere




Kind of surprised with the lack of change, data supports both an upgrade to Cat 5 and west adjustment, but the NHC is sticking with this forecast. They are smarter then me so I've got to trust them. Irma was borderline but in the end they got it right.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100384 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:20 PM

Regarding the NHC call to hold Dorian at 150/C4 at 11PM - there is ample evidence to support an upgrade, but they mentioned in their discussion some concern that the SFMR readings at the surface could be overdoing it. In addition (and not mentioned in their discussion), some slight impingement can be seen on the western side of the hurricane in the very last few enhanced IR frames, which *could* suggest a possible near-term plateau coming, if that were to continue.

For now, pressures have continued to fall, and data suggest 150MPH sustained at a minimum, which is still an incredibly powerful Major Hurricane and should be taken seriously.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
Quote:


Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.




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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100385 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:32 PM

Quote:

Regarding the NHC call to hold Dorian at 150/C4 at 11PM - there is ample evidence to support an upgrade, but they mentioned in their discussion some concern that the SFMR readings at the surface could be overdoing it. In addition (and not mentioned in their discussion), some slight impingement can be seen on the western side of the hurricane in the very last few enhanced IR frames, which *could* suggest a possible near-term plateau coming, if that were to continue.

For now, pressures have continued to fall, and data suggest 150MPH sustained at a minimum, which is still an incredibly powerful Major Hurricane and should be taken seriously.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
Quote:


Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.







I would add that 940mb isn't exactly tearing the barometer off the wall for a Cat 5. Wacky storm though so who knows? I will say that I don't remember a storm this size that maintained such a solid defined eyewall for so long.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100386 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:43 PM

Quote:

some slight impingement can be seen on the western side of the hurricane in the very last few enhanced IR frames, which *could* suggest a possible near-term plateau coming, if that were to continue.




The western edge has been weaker all day. In past storms the NHC seems to error on the side of higher vs lower, so I found this report a bit conservative in nature. Wonder if post analysis will correct this. They are plenty busy with the track which is WAY more important then a slight wind speed bump.

Overall Dorian is trending about an eye's width N of the forecast line but the motion has been spot on. The eye structure is incredible. I imagine this is what Andrews looked like but we didn't have the satellite resolution or high frame rate to see him this way back then.

They eye is so sharp and clear... Weathernerds Satellite images


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Steve C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Houston TX 77059
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100387 - Sun Sep 01 2019 12:10 AM

In the NHC Forcast/Advisory, the diameter of hurricane force winds is on the order of 60 NM. This seems small to me for a storm that is so powerful at the eyewall. Am I reading this correctly?

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Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86)
Allison (’89) Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01)
Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17) Imelda ('19)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #100391 - Sun Sep 01 2019 12:31 AM

Quote:

In the NHC Forcast/Advisory, the diameter of hurricane force winds is on the order of 60 NM. This seems small to me for a storm that is so powerful at the eyewall. Am I reading this correctly?



The current radius of (sustained) hurricane-force winds in Dorian is actually even smaller than this, at up to 30 miles (26 nm) from the center. Gusts at or above hurricane-force could be expected beyond this range, however.

Believe it or not, size has nothing to do with hurricane intensity, other than, perhaps counter-intuitively, the larger the tropical cyclone, the more difficult it can be to become a Major, as smaller TCs tend to be able to ramp up (and down) with greater ease.


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100392 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:34 AM

0Z GFS and GFS-L have drifted back to the east a bit, putting themselves back roughly in alignment with the 12Z runs that came before the westward jog of the 18Z run.

HWRF is also slightly eastward, though now calling a landfall around Ormond Beach just after midnight Wed morning about 80 kts.

--------------------
Londovir


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