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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100393 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:26 AM

Following up on the above - in general, 01/0z runs of primary global models and hurricane-focused models have nudged back east a little. Something pleasing to look at, but still much too early to bank on with so many subtle variables in play, and several caveats apply - see below -

More 0z Trends
As already noted, GFS/GFS-L tugged back right and do not make a Florida landfall, whereas the HWRF inched back right, but still shows landfall along N Central Fl coast

CMC an apparent jump left for Florida landfall, and proceeds inland into Central Fl
UKMET tugged back right - center stays offshore of Florida
HMON tugged back right - center stays offshore of Florida
ICON tugged back right, still makes landfall around Melbourne

01/0z Noteworthy mention:
ECMWF doesn't appear to be much change, ultimately, but in the near term, is 'the southwesternmost model through 48 hours' - a change that should be watched closely for verification and any future buy-ins, from itself and/or other models, especially as a track more southwest *could* result in Dorian getting lost down there, cut off from the exit hatch... but for now at least, after heading more southwest, ECMWF resumes Dorian's previous track and the center stays offshore of Florida

01/06 Noteworthy mention:
TVCN* CONSENSUS inched back left
*Includes GFS-Inerpolated, UKMET-Interpolated, HWRF-Interpolated, NRL COAMPS-Interpolated and the ECMWF Ensemble Mean


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100395 - Sun Sep 01 2019 06:11 AM

From the 5 am NHC advisory:
"The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a distinct possibility."

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100396 - Sun Sep 01 2019 06:16 AM

06Z GFS appears to have jogged left. Really want to see the 12Z Euro for any further adjustments.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100397 - Sun Sep 01 2019 06:30 AM

From NWS Melbourne early morning discussion:
"It is important to note that all of east central Florida remains in the track cone of uncertainty. Due to the trend in model track guidance."

Hoping right-leaning models are right and Dorian spares east central Florida the slow-motion train wreck that the Abaco Islands will experience today.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Sun Sep 01 2019 06:31 AM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100398 - Sun Sep 01 2019 07:30 AM

Given the steady westward track, I'm worried that the contour of the weakness in the ridge influencing Dorian may not be sharp enough to allow Dorian to stay far enough (if at all) offshore from locations near and north of the Cape.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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B.C.Francis
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Reged: Sat
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100399 - Sun Sep 01 2019 07:48 AM

I have to agree. The slow west movement has made me a little concerned about wind field here on the coast. Surf is picking up with the swells coming in. We have a meeting here at the hotel at 9 to see if we`re going to close up for a couple of days. We have some big time news crews in house. I`m a little worried about staying open at the present. Not my call. I`m only an advisor to the big guys who make the move either way. Right now I`d shut her down for two days. We`ll see what happens in the next 12 hours.???

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #100400 - Sun Sep 01 2019 07:56 AM

Just saw Dorian has been upgraded to a H5. Is he slowing down at all? I am still hearing 8 mph. When will he slow?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100401 - Sun Sep 01 2019 08:32 AM

Quote:

Just saw Dorian has been upgraded to a H5. Is he slowing down at all? I am still hearing 8 mph. When will he slow?




Monday AM thru Tuesday AM (yes 24 hours!) is when he crawls and nearly stops, drifting south possibility then moving off to the N.

I need to find some good weather stations in the Bahamas. However given the upcoming conditions they will all likely go offline
This one is reporting: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABACOGU2

The western edge of the storm is still slightly smaller and has just reached Abaco, its all downhill from here for those poor people who stayed.

Edited by JMII (Sun Sep 01 2019 08:41 AM)


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100402 - Sun Sep 01 2019 08:58 AM

Just got the word, we`re closing the hotel at 1:00 pm today. Probably for 3-4 days until the storm passes out of this area. Hopefully it makes the turn soon. Very nerve wracking. I live two blocks in from the ocean, don`t need a 2004 again or worse. Pray for the turn N.

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KY Bourbon Maker
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #100403 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:09 AM

Take care and be Sade. I closed up my house on South Riverside Drive in Indialantic and went back up to KY.

Edited by KY Bourbon Maker (Sun Sep 01 2019 09:10 AM)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 41
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: KY Bourbon Maker]
      #100404 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:39 AM

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents
there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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OrlandoDan
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: KY Bourbon Maker]
      #100405 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:39 AM

The last couple of frames of Cloudtop IR satellite show a slight fill in of convection to the west of the eye. Not sure if this indicates a weakening in the western motion of the eye.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Rob Moser
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 10
Loc: Naples,FL & Iowa
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100407 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:19 AM

How does the minimum central pressure of 922mb compare to other major hurricanes like Andrew, Katrina, Camille etc.?

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100408 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:20 AM

Looks like a direct hit on Marsh Harbour with the eye reaching them in about 45 minutes to an hour.

Yet 100 miles due west in Freeport the wind is just gusting to 22 mph.

Tracking right on the line via radar: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/south-florida/large-scale-loop


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100411 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:49 AM

Powerfull 175 mph.. amazing these storms can produce so much energy.. makes you wonder what other planets can have so much more than our own if this would be normal for them or still not much.

Well I for the past 2 days thought this would hit Abaco and Grand Bahama and that's on track.. but I didn't think this would make landfall in Florida.. I still don't but it has come back some in the models to the SW but barely. Be interesting if the 12Z runs go again another 20-40 miles SW of the 6z or 0z (Euro).. if so the coast will get Hurricane Force winds from Vero north.. right now it's looking at TS force winds.. but again lets see the 12Z... Gulf Stream Jet had mechanical issues but not sure unless someone knows if they went out to put it in the 12Z model runs (data) or if they will go out this afternoon and it will again get in the 0z runs.. next 2 main runs 12Z and 0z will probably let us know forsure if this makes a Florida east coast landfall or not.. .


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100412 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:58 AM

Thanks for the radar link from SoFMD. I've never seen such a dramatic wind gradient. Gives me great hope that if Dorian can stay east of 80W, our worst impact north of the Cape will be several days of pounding, destructive surf eating away what little dune we have left- not wind or flooding rain. We actually need a good soaker in coastal Volusia given how dry it has been in recent weeks.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rob Moser]
      #100413 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:58 AM

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/new...icanes-20130911


The 10 Most Intense Atlantic Hurricanes on Record

Edited by DougBaker (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:00 AM)


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: DougBaker]
      #100414 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:02 AM

180MPH and no change in the cone. Lets all pray for the slow down to start soon.

180 is really up there.


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100415 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:03 AM

For a 180MPH hurricane they must really like there track and the radar so far has it on track.

A blend of
these measurements yield to an initial intensity of 155 kt, making
Dorian the strongest hurricane on record in the northwestern
Bahamas.

Edited by chance (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:06 AM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100416 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:04 AM

180 MPH! this is insane. No real changes to the forecast at 11AM. Slow down and tiny jog west. The wind field is more like a tornado.

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