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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100417 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:07 AM

14:54:00Z 26.617N 76.650W 696.3 mb
(~ 20.56 inHg) 2,708 meters
(~ 8,885 feet) 956.5 mb
(~ 28.25 inHg) - From 130° at 149 knots
(From the SE at ~ 171.5 mph) 8.5°C
(~ 47.3°F) 2.5°C
(~ 36.5°F) 156 knots
(~ 179.5 mph) 176 knots
(~ 202.5 mph) 53 mm/hr
(~ 2.09 in/hr) 168.1 knots (~ 193.4 mph)
Category Five Hurricane

Note: 193.4 mph.. verified...


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100419 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:18 AM

Reconnaissance plane and satellite fixes indicate that Dorian, as
anticipated, has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270
degrees at 6 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is
expected to slow down even more, prolonging its catastrophic effects
in the northwestern Bahamas.

So the slow down has begun


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100420 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:24 AM

Wind field has expanded slightly, looking at 45 miles out for hurricane for and 140 miles out for TS so the updated warnings are inline.

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 322
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100421 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:37 AM

Even that we`re closed at 1:00 pm for regular business, CBS News wants 50 rooms tonight even though we won`t have any food or bar outlets open. Other news giants are trying to get what ever rooms they can get so that their film crews can be close to the up coming weather event that is unfolding. If I see anybody from the Weather Channel it might be that things are about to get interesting around here. We`ll see. I hope it turns real soon.

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Robert Lauriault
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rob Moser]
      #100422 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:40 AM

(Unnecessary text removed) - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:58 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert Lauriault]
      #100423 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:45 AM

12Z GFS pushes this again back to the 0z run 20 miles further off the coast

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 183
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100424 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:48 AM

Quote:

180MPH and no change in the cone. Lets all pray for the slow down to start soon.

180 is really up there.




Slow only heightens the catastrophe in the Bahamas. Sadly, there are no good solutions here.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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TampaDon
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100425 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:54 AM

What is it in the atmosphere around the storm that will cause it to slow and stall for 2 days? Understand that if it does, the high pressure systems are suppose to recede and allow the Northern recurve. What will cause such a powerful storm to stall? And what about the older premise that these powerful storms essentially make their own path? Asking for a friend....

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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1431
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100426 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:54 AM

A TS Watch has been issued for Polk and Highlands County. Just passing on information.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 449
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #100430 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:14 PM

And with the update statement, 911mb and 185mph winds.

Not much more to add, just stay safe and take care of yourselves if you end up in the path of this storm.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100431 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:14 PM

Quote:

12Z GFS pushes this again back to the 0z run 20 miles further off the coast



Looks like Cape Canaveral's rich hurricane history will place it as close to the eye of historical hurricane Dorian as any point in Florida (assuming Dorian stays offshore and doesn't wobble closer to the coast further south).
We've had 3 brief blasts from fast-moving coastal showers skittering in off the Atlantic from the ENE, accompanied by wind gusts in the 20 mph range. 1/4" so far since sunrise.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 486
Loc: Tampa
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100432 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:18 PM

Encouraging news. *UPDATE* Orlando International rescinds its plans to close Monday due to Dorian's northward turn. The airport will remain open Monday

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100433 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:21 PM

Last couple of frames of visible satellite show the eye not as clearly defined. Could Abaco have that much impact to the eye structure?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Edited by OrlandoDan (Sun Sep 01 2019 01:23 PM)


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100434 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:26 PM

If you watch the loop of the long range radar it has been slowing down even more in the last hour

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100435 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:45 PM

Quote:

Last couple of frames of visible satellite show the eye not as clearly defined. Could Abaco have that much impact to the eye structure?




That is very unlikely. What might look like filling from non-hires satellite imagery, is likely just low-level stratus and stratocumulus, which often occurs inside the eyes of mature hurricanes. Recon is about to pass back through, and we'll get a better idea of current intensity.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100436 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:48 PM

12Z Euro should be out soon. Let's see if it also jogs east.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100437 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:52 PM

GFS is offshore, HWRF landfalls in New Smyrna Beach, UK shifted east, still waiting for the slowdown and move north, neither have happened yet, although it isn't until tomorrow where it was forecast to hit the breaks.

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Steve86
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100438 - Sun Sep 01 2019 01:53 PM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind

Looks like a shift west


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100439 - Sun Sep 01 2019 02:10 PM

Euro is getting interpreted by Tropical Tidbits. Looks like a shift west.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100441 - Sun Sep 01 2019 02:44 PM

Quote:

Euro is getting interpreted by Tropical Tidbits. Looks like a shift west.




It's tougher to compare using many of the model plots I've found so far, as you have to use the old "mouse cursor eyeball" method to spot where the "center" of the storm would be, and since the 12Z Euro spots things "in between" the 0Z Euro run steps, but I think it's mostly west and northward from the previous 0Z run.

I took my best guess for where I'd mark the center for the 0Z run's 0Z Wed location, and then looked at the 12Z run's 12Z Tues and 12Z Wed locations, linear interpolated between those two points (though definitely unlikely to be linear - if I'd have model coordinates from data I could have done a spline or other interpolation), and the difference I see is the 12Z model puts the predicted 0Z Wed spot about 85km NNW from the previous run, which places it closer to Melbourne.

--------------------
Londovir


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