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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100442 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:07 PM Attachment (234 downloads)

Nice graphic of the 1400 EDT NHC track from the Navy with wind fields. See attached.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100443 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:17 PM

Lower level water vapor loop may be showing some northerly component of the northern most edges of water vapor of Dorian.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Rhino
Registered User


Reged: Wed
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100444 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:34 PM

Which one is the Euro on that site?

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100445 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:40 PM

Outflow seems to be expanding too. Its crawling along, I estimate its moved 30 miles in the last 3 hours and 30 mins. I can't believe we are going to have to wait nearly 24 hours or more before the turn occurs.
Noticed the breeze here in Margate is picking up. Pressure is also falling after a slight rise around noon.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rhino]
      #100446 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:43 PM

For the Euro model on Tropical Tidbits, go to Forecast Models>Global>ECMWF. ECMWF is the Euro.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Rhino
Registered User


Reged: Wed
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100447 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:53 PM

Thank you! That's what I thought, but wasn't sure.

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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rhino]
      #100448 - Sun Sep 01 2019 03:56 PM

I only ask the following question on this forum after reading the description:

"Have a forecast for a storm, Invest or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling" or output from long-range models. Unofficial best guesses as well as forecasting contests can go here."


So....not to freak anyone out.....does anyone else have a gut feeling this storm isn't going to make a dramatic turn north and will continue up the spine of Florida?


Edited by Ed G (Sun Sep 01 2019 04:07 PM)


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100449 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:01 PM

yes.will see!

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100450 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:13 PM

Quote:

anyone else just have a gut feeling this storm isn't going to make a dramatic turn north?




FIRST, how is the Bahamas doing? Any large spews of data?

Second, It's going to go north almost on a 90-degree turn but it's going to seriously stall first.

For people who debate such things 185MPH winds are technically a "suggested" Category 6. 911mb is FINALLY about what the storm should be sporting.(perhaps even into the 800s is probable in parts of the storm given the strength) The 950 H4 pressures weren't in line with each other which made me seriously doubt the full spectre of the storm when they said it was an H4 but this blew right past H5 and into that "we should have a 6 and a 7 strength" area. 185 is much much past the 157 for an H5. I am one of the ones who think that we shouldn't have a "H5 captures everything" type of scale because an H5 could be 157.1 and that does not NEARLY describe what basically sustained winds of 30 more miles means to people and things in it's way. Like there are people who will hunker down for H5/160mph for some reason but add 30 and the storm of capable of flipping train engines over. Houses are not built to handle anywhere near 185 miles an hour, especially if you consider there could be gusts over 200mph.

Dorian, if not already considered should be considered one of the more bizarre, freakish and seriously hard to forecast hurricanes of all time. Certainly one of the strongest on top of that which for a relatively small-sized storm is just...it's crazy. For H1 to 4 in under 24 hours with a min pressure of 950 is close to the fastest intensifications but the bouncing and utter chaos of the storm...I've never seen something so weird.

It's been said before but I'll say it again. If you're on the coast of Florida/North Caroline. Don't "hunker down" and "wait it out" or "shutter the windows"...just drive away into safety. If you don't get smashed by wind, the storn surge will be unmeasurable.

I don't know that this storm can be forecasted at this point because there really haven't been many or any 185MPH storms to compare to. Not having storms to measure against means you're "suggesting" versus forecasting.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 970
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: 52255225]
      #100451 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:16 PM

My response is the experts have too much on the
Iine to not be 90% right especially with this monster.
My gut reaction is I cannot see any reason on the satellites that would explain the radical turn to the north that is predicted..this is worrisome in this instance because a storm of this magnitude creates its own climate around it..So .....watch carefully.

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doug


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100452 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:22 PM

Quote:

My response is the experts have too much on the
Iine to not be 90% right especially with this monster.
My gut reaction is I cannot see any reason on the satellites that would explain the radical turn to the north that is predicted..this is worrisome in this instance because a storm of this magnitude creates its own climate around it..So .....watch carefully.




I just saw the full speeds. 185 sustained TWO HUNDRED AND TWENTY MILE PER HOUSE GUSTS. That's so far off the Saffir Simpson scale...This storm finally underscores that climate change needs to expand the scale. This storm should be considered an H6.

That said, if you're in a wooden walled house that is not hurricane strapped and the storm is heading near to you, MOVE. Just drive somewhere deeper into Florida or Alabama or something. It's NOT WORTH STAYING.

Despite the storm only being 90 miles across, its tossing up to 23 feet of storm surge which will put huge swaths of Florida underwater if the surge continues past the storm which does look to stay out to sea but it's so strong it might go more West.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100456 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:33 PM

Video of the Abacos aftermath coming in on TWC.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100457 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:45 PM

Quote:

Video of the Abacos aftermath coming in on TWC.




Videos I've seen on Twitter show cars flipped over. Cars weigh 3,000 to 4,000 lbs, it boggles the mind that wind can do that.

Dorian is tracking up right up Little Abaco, its following the island's edge NW, last few frames show more W. Outflow to the NE and E is expanding. Trying to develop a channel to the S as well. Core is like a doughnut, just amazing presentation in the mid level WV image below...

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/me...&length=120


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Mike V
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 29
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100458 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:54 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Video of the Abacos aftermath coming in on TWC.




Videos I've seen on Twitter show cars flipped over. Cars weigh 3,000 to 4,000 lbs, it boggles the mind that wind can do that.

Dorian is tracking up right up Little Abaco, its following the island's edge NW, last few frames show more W. Outflow to the NE and E is expanding. Trying to develop a channel to the S as well. Core is like a doughnut, just amazing presentation in the mid level WV image below...

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/me...&length=120




Saw a lot of this with Andrew. I’ve seen the videos coming in on eyewitness news Bahamas and this is just like Andrew. A storm that strong will do some bizarre things.

Now that I am at a computer, incredible video coming out of Marsh Harbour and Abaco. https://www.facebook.com/pg/eyewitnessnewsbah/posts/?ref=page_internal


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Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma

Edited by Mike V (Sun Sep 01 2019 07:29 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 317
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100460 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:06 PM

Frankly this is a remarkable storm. I can't imagine what the Bahamas must be going through.Been living in Florida for 40 years and can't remember anything like this on our doorstep. Andrew was as powerful but was fast moving, smaller and was a dry storm. Comparisons with Mathew fall short due to Mathews forward motion and storm category, surge impacts apply however. Dorian should make the turn but, I am watching the surface flow to the north of the storm, w/wsw, and Dorian (don't know whether to call it a He or She) has slowed but not stalled yet. So it is all about the timing of the turn at this point. Stay safe everyone and don't let your guard down if your in the cone.


COD: Satellite and Radar

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Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Mike V]
      #100462 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:12 PM

Got tornado signature on radar E of Marco Island. These outer bands are moving very fast. We had some of these small spin-ups during Irma too, so beware those outside the cone for bursts of nasty weather.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100463 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:19 PM


The image above is about the last fully full daylight visible image to catch all three of these features in the W Atlantic
From left to right: Gulf Low, Cat 5 Dorian, Low SSE of Bermuda

All three appear to be stronger and/or more organized than previously forecast. Given their relatively close proximity and better-than-forecast states, there may be some unexpected influence to come. It will be interesting to see if the next run of 0z and 12Z models pick up on anything.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100464 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:44 PM

18Z GFS is coming in up to 30 hours out and I see no discernable difference from the previous run. But, I only see 30 hours out so far.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100465 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:54 PM

Up to 60 now, virtually identical to the 12Z except for a little nudge closer to the FIrst Coast.

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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2

Edited by gsand (Sun Sep 01 2019 05:55 PM)


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gsand]
      #100466 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:57 PM Attachment (53 downloads)

Legacy GFS CPA to the Cape:

Edited by Rubber Ducky (Sun Sep 01 2019 05:59 PM)


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