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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rubber Ducky]
      #100467 - Sun Sep 01 2019 06:29 PM

Is the IMB model still showing a land fall in south Florida and heading northwest into the gulf and into the Florida panhandle?

Or is the gulf still an option with a stronger push west?

Edited by hurricanetracker (Sun Sep 01 2019 06:33 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100468 - Sun Sep 01 2019 07:25 PM

18Z HMON Clips the Cape, 18HWRF landfalls in Cape Canaveral, eyewall over Melbourne when it does. Early Wednesday morning.

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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100470 - Sun Sep 01 2019 07:28 PM

18Z HWRF taking the storm into the Cape area. Probably part of the thinking behind the hurricane warnings going into effect. I think we're on the cusp of seeing a forecast move to the left.

Even if the models continue to oscillate, there comes a point where you wonder if there's a sense of the NHC choosing to err on the side of caution by moving the eponymous line closer to the coast so that, at worst, they can be "wrong" in calling for a coastal landfall, rather than be "wrong" by keeping the line offshore and having the storm eventually track inland. We'll see.

--------------------
Londovir


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100471 - Sun Sep 01 2019 07:34 PM

Quote:

FIRST, how is the Bahamas doing?




I’ve been monitoring weather stations in the Bahamas all day via the Weatherbug app on my phone. The station at Hope Town is still reporting after passage of the eye. It has looked like it only updates hourly and is now reporting 64 mph from the south. The strongest I saw was 73 mph from the NNW as the storm was approaching. I didn’t see a report during the eye wall. Freeport last reported 35 mph from the NNW. There are some amateur videos from within the eye near the point of landfall which show storm surge up to roof eaves, destroyed buildings, inverted boats and vehicles.

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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chance
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100472 - Sun Sep 01 2019 07:48 PM

But those are not the main models the NHC uses. The last 30 mins it has moved maybe 2 miles to the west. those have been west most of the last 2 days the hwrf and the hmon both. In fact the Hmon had it inland the other day as well as the other. The NHC uses a lot different models for there forecast and they would have the line closer to the coast on the side of caution but it is in the cone already anyway. We shall see but do not put stock in those non global models 100%

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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100473 - Sun Sep 01 2019 08:07 PM

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/08/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif

It looks like some of the moisture from the Low in the golf is trying to cut into the high pressure that had built in front of Dorian that was suppose to help stall it out.
Now with the break in that high along with the low to its east pushing against it this may be some of what those models are picking up on, or so I would think.
Time will tell, even with all of the technology of today we are still all watching history be made of a storm that was for Estes to be only a Cat 3 tops, a week ago.


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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100474 - Sun Sep 01 2019 08:20 PM

Could this action of the storm in the east pushing on hurricane Dorian push it farther west than expected?

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100475 - Sun Sep 01 2019 08:50 PM

Quote:

Time will tell, even with all of the technology of today we are still all watching history be made of a storm that was for Estes to be only a Cat 3 tops, a week ago.




Advisory #12 - 5 day cone put a Tropical Storm at Stuart @ 2AM Sunday. Location error might be only 70 miles when that time arrives. Intensity is obvious WAY off however.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100477 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:09 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4BAXqEcGYk Levi's video explain the HWRF situation pretty well.

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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100478 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:11 PM

Current IR loop looks as is the eye is starting to be pulled to the SW ever so slightly.

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kob
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100479 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:14 PM

The weather station in Hope Town is over near the lighthouse and the harbor is very protected. I wouldn't think this wind speed report is very accurate.

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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100480 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:21 PM

yes the eye is being pulled slightly southwest. There has been a recent churning of a steering current form over Florida that might be starting that steering southwestwardly movement. this is trying to pull it down while the disturbance south east of the Bermuda is pushing the system more westwardly.

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mattrmay
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100481 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:37 PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/stevewafb/sta...timodels.com%2f

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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: mattrmay]
      #100483 - Sun Sep 01 2019 09:46 PM

will be interested to see if the jog south shows on the next update?

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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100485 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:17 PM

Quote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4BAXqEcGYk Levi's video explain the HWRF situation pretty well.




Wow Mike, Just wow. I've never seen such an in-depth look at a storm before with going over the different models.

Which do you tend to follow? He talks about upwelling however that water isn't very deep is it there?


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100488 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:41 PM

Quote:

will be interested to see if the jog south shows on the next update?




The storm has been wobbling north and south for over a week. .It seems to be a very active storm as far as reacting to the prevailing currents and airflows that control it. The southerly flow is only a woibble because the true thing shaping where the storm is going is the high over Florida. (this usually tends to be the case).

The high, like all bodies of air has pockets that are weaker within them that can show a temporary weak spot for the storm to slide into but the majority of the high is on almost every model keep the storm out to sea long enough for it to spin itself colder water and then it will start going north as per other elements.

The key from what we're hearing is how high the intense part of the storm is. If it's higher, it'll be pushed north and stay off land until probably NC when its much weaker. If the tops of the intense part of the storm are lower, they won't be affected by the high nearly as much and there is a possibility that it will barrel right into Florida.

There is nothing to suggest this storm goes south for any period of time. If anything, one respected model has it going relatively west with a small north curl. The other two major models keep it out to sea but with plenty of hurricane damage up to 20 miles into the coast before hiotting NC.

Edited to delete superfluous discussion. Let's keep it less like a chatroom here thanks! - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 01 2019 11:13 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100489 - Sun Sep 01 2019 10:41 PM

Different models are helpful at different times and setups and different storm strengths. It's also very different from storm genesis into establish storms. I generally think the Euro is probably going to be closer to correct, but things like HWRF are in the margin of error and have legit strengths. Since the slowdown is expected once it gets to the west side of Grand Bahamas, little details are going to matter more. Ultimately I don't expect the NHC's track to be that far off.

I don't really like any one of the models, but as a whole they are helpful. Official track all the way for me, the track record is really good.


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100493 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:25 PM

Quote:

Official track all the way for me, the track record is really good.




I've been watching it all day and agree. It has been right down the line with only the normal wobbles here and there, none of which were more then an eye's width off course. It has gone DUE west all day. However to reach its next two forecast positions is gotta gain some latitude. I'll feel better for Broward County when I see 27N (around Hobe Sound).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100494 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:26 PM

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/08/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif

Watch as the high pressure over Florida seems to dissipate and the storm/outer bands seems to expand greatly to the SE as the ridge to the NE and east continue pushing it west. The ridge over Florida looked a lot stronger earlier.


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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100496 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:33 PM

yes... the ridge over Florida is starting to dissipate and is allowing a more westward flow. might be the cause for the forward speed increasing to 6 mph.

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