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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100497 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:34 PM

I'm having deja vu from waiting for Irma to make that "turn". Also feeling nervous as Irma's turn was late.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100499 - Sun Sep 01 2019 11:51 PM

This is a massive nail biter.

Freeport weather station, nice unit based on the specs, rated to 134 MPH... well as long as there is power

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWESTGRA2

Winds 59 from NNW 29.50 pressure and failing

Tiny WNW jog from Dorian, that motion needs to continue

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100501 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:10 AM

People in the Wunderground are going crazy cause it's moving 1mph faster than what the NHC had out earlier... 1mph... glad we don't have that here... Dorian isn't suppose to stall or go to a 2mph crawl until Monday afternoon into the night

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100502 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:16 AM

Quote:

This is a massive nail biter.


Tiny WNW jog from Dorian, that motion needs to continue




It just did a s s/w wobble so that's just it's "normal" n n/w wobble back. It's not going to continue north at all for a while.

As for nail-biting, I think that it's been established over a decade and a half of NHC data that if you're anywhere near where there is red line or being close to the middle of a cone, the only nails that should be involved is you nailing your windows shut and you breaking a nail on the gas pump as you take your family 100 miles inland.

Nobody EVER died from eating at a hotel restaurant while watching a deadly hurricane go over their house while it tosses 20 feet of storm surge. In this case with Florida, 20 feet could amount to surge going miles inland in some of the lower-lying places. Just like the Indonesian Tsunami from their ginormous offshore earthquake.


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Steve86
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100503 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:20 AM

It’s a nail biter for sure.
The majority of the models coming out on 00Z are showing a westward shift. The GFS looks very close to a landfall in cape Canaveral.
It just doesn’t seem like the ridge over Fl held as strongly as it should have. The expansion in the last hour on the west side of the storm is remarkable. It had to have increased by 10+ miles once the ridge over Fl broke.


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100504 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:38 AM

Quote:

It’s a nail biter for sure.
The majority of the models coming out on 00Z are showing a westward shift. The GFS looks very close to a landfall in cape Canaveral.
It just doesn’t seem like the ridge over Fl held as strongly as it should have. The expansion in the last hour on the west side of the storm is remarkable. It had to have increased by 10+ miles once the ridge over Fl broke.




It's not surprising if it keeps going more west. That high has never looked as strong as the models were giving it if you looked at it on GOES as much as I've watched it. It's always looked a bit like it was churning a bit versus looking like a wall of brick like the highs that usually smack hurricanes north with ease.

We'll know pretty soon though if Dorian is going to overpower the edge and make FLA landfall. Next 8-12 should tighten the landfall cone right up.


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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100505 - Mon Sep 02 2019 04:07 AM

Hard to sleep tonight so I've been watching Tidbits sat feeds and Recon as well. Noticed that the C130 out of MSY enroute to Dorian got about 40nm SE of Pensacola and turned back. Mission's been pulled from the Recon site. G-IV is up NE of Dorian right now.

Question. Been watching mostly the WV loops and the line over mid-Georgia still looks fairly robust to me. Granted I'm not a met but if you look at the CONUS loop it looks like the disturbance in the Western Gulf is actually pushing up the boundary and causing it to elongate horizontally. If I'm seeing this right it's difficult for me to see any breakdown for Dorian to turn towards. Dorian's still on rails towards WPB and time's starting to get short for a turn to stay offshore. He's already a bit past the forecast turn point. Am I reading this right and does it make sense?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=60

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=amx&loop=yes

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/florida-radar-and-satellite-loop

Edit: Another 130 just left Gulfport.

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2

Edited by gsand (Mon Sep 02 2019 04:38 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gsand]
      #100506 - Mon Sep 02 2019 04:59 AM

0500 NHC update is out and I see no difference at all in the track.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 41
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100507 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:08 AM

Quote:

Different models are helpful at different times and setups and different storm strengths. It's also very different from storm genesis into establish storms. I generally think the Euro is probably going to be closer to correct, but things like HWRF are in the margin of error and have legit strengths. Since the slowdown is expected once it gets to the west side of Grand Bahamas, little details are going to matter more. Ultimately I don't expect the NHC's track to be that far off.

I don't really like any one of the models, but as a whole they are helpful. Official track all the way for me, the track record is really good.




I have a quote on my office door, that while it wasn't said about hurricanes it is quite appropriate.....ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, BUT SOME ARE HELPFUL!

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 41
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100508 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:20 AM

I know this has been posted a day or two ago, but now that the storm is this close you can see the motion in real time relative to the current track. This is my go to now vs satellite and watching that it stays on track or east of the line. I'm located just west of the Turnpike in Jupiter (northeastern PB County) and have winds WNW at 3 and gusts to 4mph. Highest wind since midnight only 9mph and at 29.74 and slowly dropping.

SFWMD Radar

Jupiter Farms weather station

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 41
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100509 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:54 AM

Using the SFWMD link above, you can see a drift to the northwest over the last hour or so. When the 5am forecast track was updated, Dorian seems to be moving just to the right.

Also noted that the newer dropsonde data from just offshore JAX shows very dry air (as low as 15%) in the 400mb levels on up. Winds from the surface until 350mb (~28K feet) are all SE as well.

Dropsonde off Jax

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100510 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:58 AM

06Z looks basically the same, but a slight westward jog in northern FL and GA.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100511 - Mon Sep 02 2019 06:42 AM

Quote:

I'm located just west of the Turnpike in Jupiter (northeastern PB County) and have winds WNW at 3 and gusts to 4mph. Highest wind since midnight only 9mph and at 29.74 and slowly dropping.



Is there a thread started for local Dorian conditions?

Currently at my location (FL-VL-42) its 81F, pcldy, NE12G21. Precip (past 24 hrs): 0.31"
Here is the link to the CoCoRaHS network of daily weather observations: https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyComments.aspx

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gsand]
      #100512 - Mon Sep 02 2019 06:56 AM

Interesting Tidbit loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gsand]
      #100513 - Mon Sep 02 2019 07:17 AM

Melbourne, FL long range radar sees Dorian.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb&product=N0Z&loop=yes

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 322
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100514 - Mon Sep 02 2019 07:30 AM

Ocean here at Paradise Park is cranking. Very rough and will only get worse. Dunes are going to take a beating at high tide not to mention the turtle nests that may be there. Going to be very interesting here for the next couple of days. Lots of power utility trucks staging at the hotel north of here on A1A.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100515 - Mon Sep 02 2019 07:34 AM

HWRF and HMON keep Dorian offshore of Florida now, although everything is extremely close to shore. With the motion I think the surge and erosion along the coast will be the biggest Florida impacts, although the wind probably will be stronger than Matthew was. Georgia/SC/NC will probably get the surge as well, and NC probably the most impact if it makes landfall there.

The image recordings link to the left has the miami, melbourne, and SFWMD Florida radars being recorded over long periods, so you can see the entire movement on radar of Dorian from them.

Melbourne recording: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?468

SFWMD Florida Radar Recording (with the official track line): http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?466


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100516 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:06 AM

With the current forecast and 6z euro wind gusts may be up to 110mph along the coast from canaveral Wednesday morning.

Also watch the rain bands near jupiter, and the tailing "tail" over the Keys (which won't move much, so they'll get a lot of rain from it)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100517 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:09 AM

Its barely moved in the last 8 hours, maybe 20 miles? The good news is the motion appears more N then W on radar. Given how slow its going I guess you could call it NW.

Even more crazy... the weather in Freeport - winds are blowing at 60 from the NW pressure 29.19 and still dropping. While center of Cat 5 Dorian is just 30 miles away! 30 miles down the road yet the wind is 100 MPH less. This is more tornado then hurricane. Its so compact. The feeder bands aren't even expanding, this storm is all core.


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 104
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100519 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:44 AM

I believe you will see a expansion of the wind field very soon. Very strange storm from many aspects.

Edited by M.A. (Mon Sep 02 2019 09:45 AM)


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