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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #100521 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:47 AM

The expansion is starting to happen now.

Also created a local conditions thread to report anything that happens weather wise around you http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=100518&gonew=1#UNREAD


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100523 - Mon Sep 02 2019 11:39 AM

5AM 26.6N 78.2W
8AM 26.7N 78.2W
11AM 26.8N 78.3W

Its not much... but more N then W motion, could wobble back

3 more invests popped up too, so the NHC must be incredibly busy place right now. They are doing an fantastic job under what must be incredible stress.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100524 - Mon Sep 02 2019 11:48 AM

12Z GFS has jogged east a bit.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 818
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100526 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:03 PM

Overall I think the models did not do a good job with this storm.Sure they have been right the last 2 days,but just a few days ago they had it going into Florida with no chance of doing what it now appears to be doing.Not good!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #100528 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:28 PM

Gently said: Judge the NHC by how well it does as the storm approaches, not how well it did in the beginning. Of course it's harder to get it right 8 days out than two.

As Niels Bohr said, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100531 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:45 PM

As Dorian passes by my latitude (29.15N/80.97W), any wobble to the west, or eye replacement cycle, is so very critical to my hurricane plan. To a simple weather observer like me, the wobbles seem to be random and the eye wall cycles appear to be somewhat telegraphed.
To the seasoned web site moderators and users with intimate knowledge of tropical meteorology- please continue to share thoughts on this critical info for east-central Floridians as Dorian nears the Cape then (as forecast and hopefully) parallels Florida's east coast a minimum of 30 miles offshore. Thank you!!!

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100532 - Mon Sep 02 2019 12:54 PM

12Z Euro looks like it nudged just a tad west at the Central Florida latitude. Suprising.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100533 - Mon Sep 02 2019 01:02 PM

A new model brings it straight across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico... getting very interesting.

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TheBeach
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Biloxi, MS
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100534 - Mon Sep 02 2019 01:18 PM

What model is showing it coming into the Gulf? I have not seen such. While I am glad that it appears to be making a slightly northern turn, it may be just a wobble. Until it heads north for sure, I am still keeping a wary eye out.

--------------------
Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 183
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100535 - Mon Sep 02 2019 01:20 PM

Quote:

A new model brings it straight across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico... getting very interesting.




Which model?

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100537 - Mon Sep 02 2019 01:34 PM

not sure what model it is... does not show the names but here is the website:

https://www.cyclocane.com/dorian-spaghetti-models/


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ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100538 - Mon Sep 02 2019 01:43 PM

website for euro please

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100539 - Mon Sep 02 2019 01:45 PM

Re Models:

There are two spaghetti plots on the referenced website that show a track into Florida. However, both are essentially *not* models.

One, XTRAP is a simple extrapolation of where a given system would be if it kept going in the very same direction it has been for the past several hours (not a model - just drawing a line)

The other, TABS, is not much better. While not an extrapolated line, it is very nearly so, as it is merely a trajectory "model" based on the prevailing winds at a given time. A thin hair better than a purely XTRAP plot.


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 397
Loc: Miami
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100540 - Mon Sep 02 2019 01:48 PM

Quote:

not sure what model it is... does not show the names but here is the website:



If you match that up to the spaghetti model image on this site, you will see that is XTRP. Which is not a model, it is the extrapolation of recent (12hr?) location points into the future. In other words, where would it go if it just kept heading in the direction it is heading now.

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 165
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100542 - Mon Sep 02 2019 02:08 PM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
GLOBAL has a drop down, ECMWF is the Euro model.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #100543 - Mon Sep 02 2019 02:39 PM

Quote:

Overall I think the models did not do a good job with this storm.Sure they have been right the last 2 days,but just a few days ago they had it going into Florida with no chance of doing what it now appears to be doing.Not good!




As usual the 5 day cone in particular is nearly worthless since it contains about 200 miles worth of error. Watching the animated cone the real mess up was in the very beginning when they had a TS going over the Dominican Republic. Once the storm cleared Puerto Rico the guidance become good. As the storm came into the Bahamas and more upper air data was feed into the models the track verification became nearly perfect.

What was really poor was the intensity predictions, this was going to be a TS or at times a depression, but what we got was a record setting Cat 5. In fact a few models had this storm dissipating over the mountains. Based on its initial formation this seemed like a very likely scenario, it barely survived its first few days (the NHC gave it 50/50 odds) and the center completely reformed in a different location. This thru all the original guidance out the window, which likely accounts for the massive error and (thankful) miss of Puerto Rico.

The great thing about this site is we can all go back in history and read page #1 I for one thought this thing was a joke, lucky I don't work at the NHC or I'd be fired.


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ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: 52255225]
      #100544 - Mon Sep 02 2019 02:43 PM

That is where I go. You must update much faster than I do.

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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 449
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100548 - Mon Sep 02 2019 03:58 PM

Here's a question, Is there any risk of the system in the gulf interacting with Dorian and shifting the track.

I'm thinking about the Fujiwara effect.

I ask mostly because a matter of a few miles could really change the impacts on Florida.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #100549 - Mon Sep 02 2019 04:04 PM

do you think there is a chance of it having an affect on the Florida panhandle if it heads farther west or even entering into the gulf?

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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 449
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100550 - Mon Sep 02 2019 04:07 PM

Quote:

do you think there is a chance of it having an affect on the Florida panhandle if it heads farther west or even entering into the gulf?




Extremely doubtful, I'd say impossible, I just don't like saying impossible.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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