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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100082 - Mon Aug 26 2019 05:14 PM

5PM update contains this little gem from the NHC:

"The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma."

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100083 - Mon Aug 26 2019 08:14 PM

Model summary tonight (18 or 12 z)

18Z GFS: Landfall in Central Hispaniola, weak TS. Then basically falls apart over the islands. Remnants do make it to the Central Bahamas, and start to recover on Saturday. Weak wave landfalls near Melbourne overnight Late Saturday/Early Sunday.

12Z Euro, skims or just east of the Dominican Republic on Thursday, Over Elutheria Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, Landfall near Melbourne, FL midday on Sunday TS. Then stalls out near Lake City, FL

18Z Legacy GFS skims the Eastern Side of the Dominican Republic on Thursday morning. Over Eluthera Island in the Bahamas late Friday night/Early Saturday as a Cat 2. Cat 2 landfall near Melbourne, FL on late Saturday night

12Z CMC moves over Hispaniola, Moves over Keys as a Strong Tropical Storm Sunday morning. Then Cat 2 landfall near LA/MS border on Wed Sep 4th.

18Z navgem moves over PR as a TS, then landfall Cat 2 Hurricane near West Palm Beach Sunday afternoon.

12Z ICON , skirts along N Coast of Cuba.

18Z HWRF decouples near PR, falls apart on Wednesday. Attempts to recover, ends run as a strong TS near the western Bahamas Saturday night.

18Z HMON Falls apart south of Puerto Rico, remains weak wave all the way to just south of Key West on Saturday night.

12Z UKMet landfall near Miami late Saturday afternoon as a Cat 2 hurricane.

Mixed, mostly weak. A lot depends on how Dorian does on Wednesday.


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100085 - Mon Aug 26 2019 09:19 PM Attachment (35 downloads)

I was thinking the east Caribbean would be a good spot for sudden strengthening.
I remember the waves late July and early that august passed through here on the 28th and then another 4th-5th that went through the eastern Caribbean, it blew up for a day as it crossed through eastern Caribbean. the same area Dorian is about to pas through, much like the area around the Bahamas, this may be one of those spots, in fact the forecast track seems to have been a sweet spot or area of focus this year will be closely watching tomorrow.

I really think the Aug 4-5th storm could have been a weak storm if only for a day. attached is a sat of that wave from early august. in next post will be the avn I have of it ,....then the July 28th wave.
also I wont post sat photo but I have them of a TD#3 and a wave on 25 the moving through the area, and another that followed same route on the 14th. All did well comparatively.to anything going on around at the time.

Edited by Robert (Mon Aug 26 2019 09:31 PM)


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100086 - Mon Aug 26 2019 09:21 PM Attachment (64 downloads)

A avn shot of aug 5th wave

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100087 - Mon Aug 26 2019 09:22 PM Attachment (58 downloads)

July 28th wave

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100089 - Tue Aug 27 2019 03:47 AM

Complicated forecast, and especially low confidence beyond 48 hours.

There are several ways for Dorian to become shredded, aided, impaired, repaired, or any combination thereof, by dual upper-level lows ahead. But that isn't all. As can be seen in the image below (From the Weathernerds.org site), the ECMWF and GFS members all more or less thread the needle of PR and Hispaniola, leaving precious little room for error.
Quote:


Hispaniola is the second-largest island in the Caribbean (after Cuba), with an area of 76,192 square kilometers (29,418 sq mi), 48,440 square kilometers...

The island has five major ranges of mountains: The Central Range, known in the Dominican Republic as the Cordillera Central, spans the central part of the island, extending from the south coast of the Dominican Republic into northwestern Haiti, where it is known as the Massif du Nord. This mountain range boasts the highest peak in the Antilles, Pico Duarte at 3,098 meters (10,164 ft) above sea level. The Cordillera Septentrional runs parallel to the Central Range across the northern end of the Dominican Republic, extending into the Atlantic Ocean as the Samaná Peninsula. The Cordillera Central and Cordillera Septentrional are separated by the lowlands of the Cibao Valley and the Atlantic coastal plains, which extend westward into Haiti as the Plaine du Nord (Northern Plain). The lowest of the ranges is the Cordillera Oriental, in the eastern part of the country.

The Sierra de Neiba rises in the southwest of the Dominican Republic, and continues northwest into Haiti, parallel to the Cordillera Central, as the Montagnes Noires, Chaîne des Matheux and the Montagnes du Trou d'Eau. The Plateau Central lies between the Massif du Nord and the Montagnes Noires, and the Plaine de l‘Artibonite lies between the Montagnes Noires and the Chaîne des Matheux, opening westward toward the Gulf of Gonâve, the largest gulf of the Antilles.

The southern range begins in the southwestern most Dominican Republic as the Sierra de Bahoruco, and extends west into Haiti as the Massif de la Selle and the Massif de la Hotte, which form the mountainous spine of Haiti’s southern peninsula. Pic de la Selle is the highest peak in the southern range, the third highest peak in the Antilles and consequently the highest point in Haiti, at 2,680 meters (8,790 ft) above sea level. (Wikipedia)



Needless to say, Hispaniola is notorious for interfering with tropical cyclones. And forecasts.



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craigm
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100090 - Tue Aug 27 2019 05:07 AM

Quote:

July 28th wave



Robert do these attachments compare climatologically, I.e. wind shear, dry air, upper level winds, etc. with Dorian?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #100091 - Tue Aug 27 2019 07:24 AM

Morning model roundup either 6z or 0z depending on the model:

6Z GFS:: Cuts over Hispaniola Thursday, clear of the Caribbean Thursday evening. Starts getting reorganized over the Central Bahamas on Saturday morning. Melbourne Landfall Sunday morning, Strong Tropical Storm. Does not reenter Gulf.

0Z Euro Clips eastern edge of Hispaniola midday Thursday, clear by the evening. Melbourne Landfall Sunday afternoon, Strong Tropical Storm. Does not reenter Gulf.

6z Legacy GFS - Landfall Puerto Rico late Wednesday afternoon, Clears the Caribbean overnight into Thursday. Strengthens to Hurricane just NE of the Turks and Caicos Thursday night. Cat 2 hurricane over Great Abaco island in the Bahamas Saturday afternoon. Landfall Melbourne, FL midday Sunday as a strong Cat 2 hurricane. Does not reenter Gulf.

0z CMC - slips through Mona passage Thursday morning, Cat 1 hurricane near Great Abaco midday Saturday. Landfall near Ft. Pierce Sunday morning as a cat 1/2 hurricane. Enters Gulf just north of Tampa late Sunday night, weak cat 1/strong TS another landfall near Carabelle, FL late Monday night.

0z NAVGEM - Clips Western side of Puerto Rico as a TS, landfall Cat 2 hurricane near Ft. Lauderdale late Sunday night. Exits into the Gulf near Sarasota by Monday night. Run ends there in the Gulf as a Cat 1.

0z Icon takes it over the eastern side of PR as a tropical Storm. Then dives it back into Cuba, end of run is a cat 1 between the Yucatan and Cuba. The 6z run of the same model keeps it in the Central Bahamas, but the run ends there.

0z HWRF takes it right over Hispaniola, it eventually recovers near the NW Bahamas, landfall strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane Melbourne, FL late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Run ends over Orlando.

0z HMON Takes it way west toward the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, then winds up with a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane southwest of Andros island.

0z UKMET Takes Dorian as a Tropical Storm over the eastern side of Puerto Rico Wednesday evening. Forms into a Cat 2 hurricane near Cat Island in the Bahamas, Landfall Cat 2 hurricane near Ft. Lauderdale late Sunday night. Run ends just east of Ft. Myers inland.

experimental HAFS morning run, strengthens the system east of the Bahamas, approaches E. Central Florida Monday where it explodes into a cat 4 almost 5 hurricane where the run ends east of Melbourne.



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SC Bill
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100092 - Tue Aug 27 2019 09:32 AM

Sorry, stupid question. What is the "experimental HALF" model? Thanks!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: SC Bill]
      #100093 - Tue Aug 27 2019 09:52 AM

It's HAFS, (my mistake) http://www.hfip.org/hafs/

It's a work in progress model under development based on the newer FV3 GFS by NOAA, similar to HWRF and HMON (Which still use the old GFS). It being an outlier to that degree means it's extremely unlikely, but if it somehow winds up being right or close to right then it means it was on to something.

Really it just highlights the uncertainty that the NHC is talking about post Caribbean, it's more likely to fall apart.


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SC Bill
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100094 - Tue Aug 27 2019 10:22 AM

Thanks!!

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100096 - Tue Aug 27 2019 10:53 AM

With the HAFS blowing up a Cat 4/5 and the rest of the models generally strong TS to Cat 2 at best, it really looks like a case of the HAFS, and the HAFS nots.

I like using the experimental models for just the reason Mike mentioned above - they can - (keyword, can) sometimes catch on to something that the older models miss, perhaps owing to years of bias forming algos, if nothing else, but from there it takes further analysis to tease out if there really is anything to it. My hunch is that the HAFS is not entirely out to lunch, but remains a 'low probability, high impact' forecast until we have a much better understanding of Dorian's track around Hispaniola. The HAFS takes it around Hispaniola altogether, in fact, so east that it crosses eastern PR, which is a big if.

An edit to the above - the most recent and current recon mission into Dorian is not finding the cyclone in great shape, which heaps a great deal of doubt on the very bullish and northbound forecasts of the HAFS. In fact, if current trends were to continue today, it might be worth paying attention to model runs that take Dorian over or even south of Hispaniola. The eastern Caribbean can be pretty unforgiving.
Quote:

1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019
Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.




Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 27 2019 11:31 AM)


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100097 - Tue Aug 27 2019 11:01 AM

Quote:

Complicated forecast, and especially low confidence beyond 48 hours.

There are several ways for Dorian to become shredded, aided, impaired, repaired, or any combination thereof, by dual upper-level lows ahead.




Haven't heard much talk about the ridge or high building ahead of it. As with most FL storms a weak high combined with a strong storm equals more northern motion. On the flip side a weak storm (which looks likely) plus a strong high will generate westward motion.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100098 - Tue Aug 27 2019 12:12 PM

Watch the caribbean radar recording, Dorian has gone through a center reformation to the northwest under the deep convection on sattelite ,and appears to have formed an eye wall on radar and may be doing a concentric cycle.
The high pressure is still forecast to move off the eastern seaboard this weekend capturing Dorian and then the axis of the ridge will pass over him, forcing him west underneath, the timing how Dorian interacts with that ridge will dictate how far west he gets, the ridge will be out of here by wednesday and whatever is recurving north, if dorian moves slower it may only graze the east coast of florida and be a big problem for bahamas, and then the carolinas. If it maintains its course and trajectory it may well end up in the gulf before re curving. It really comes down to the upper lows shear pockets, dry air intensity questions, land.

Edited by Robert (Tue Aug 27 2019 12:52 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100099 - Tue Aug 27 2019 12:31 PM

I generally agree with Robert's analysis above. This is an unsettling development. It appears that the track over St. Lucia weakened the old center to the point that Dorian has jumped into the healthier convection. This ramps up the timetables for all models, and puts the bullish runs back in play, including the HALFS.

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100100 - Tue Aug 27 2019 12:40 PM

Quote:

Watch the caribbean radar recording, Dorian has gone through a center reformation to the northwest under the deep convection on sattelite ,and appears to have formed an eye wall on radar and may be doing a concentric cycle.




Looks much better this AM with improved outflow. Seems to have sucked in some dry air. Having your typical TS fluctuations. Blew up then sputtered, now regaining some energy but not as circular. Currently there is a pocket of dry air over PR that may limit strengthening.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100101 - Tue Aug 27 2019 01:27 PM

Recon has confirmed center reformation. Dorian was just fixed at 14.82N 61.66W, or roughly 100km NNW of the old center. Dorian is still formative, and given the many challenges that wait ahead, additional center reformations are possible. However, as of now, this center looks to be holding, and places the track squarely in the easternmost models and ensembles, increasing the odds that the cyclone avoids disruption over Hispaniola.



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IsoFlame
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100102 - Tue Aug 27 2019 03:25 PM

Has a "pacman" look on the south flank (facing Venezuela) from either the jump or ingesting dry air:
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/...R-2000x2000.jpg
Watch for a convective pulse to fill that void..

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Aug 27 2019 03:31 PM)


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100103 - Tue Aug 27 2019 05:17 PM

For a storm that was forecast to go visit Haiti it now looks like PR is in the cross-hairs.
Its been trending east of guidance combined with reformation to the N which has thrown several of the models off. The upper level low is stronger then I thought and moving into in Dorian's path. The NHC has things staying at TS levels all the way to FL now.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: SC Bill]
      #100104 - Tue Aug 27 2019 08:13 PM

Evening Model summary after an interesting day. 18Z or 12Z depending on the exact model GFS 18Z initialization is suspect, so I'd want to confirm with another run.

12Z Euro, clips western edge of Puerto Rico, misses Hispaniola. Cat 1 landfall near Melbourne, FL Midday Sunday.
18Z GFS : . Goes over the center of Puerto Rico, Slows down near Florida, veers north landfall Savannah, GA as a cat 2/3 hurricane then rides just inland out of Wilmington, North Carolina
18Z Legacy GFS, Over Puerto Rico, becomes cat 4 hurricane just offshore of Cape Canaveral Early Tuesday morning, never makes landfall follows offshore coastline and exits into the Atlantic SE of Cape Hatteras.
12Z CMC Cat 2 landfall near Melbourne, FL Midday Sunday, briefly over the Gulf before a second landfall near Carabelle, FL.
18Z NAVGEM, slower, end run as a cat two over Grand Bahama midday Monday. (12z hand a landfall near Key Largo Early Monday)
18Z ICON Cat 2/3 Landfall near Delray Beach Midday Sunday
18Z HWRF ends run east of St. Augustine as a borderline cat 3/4 hurricane. (12z had a landfall at New Smyrna Beach)
18Z HMON, Cat 2 landfall near Melbourne, FL Midday Sunday.
12Z UKMET Approaching West Palm beach when run ends Monday morning, Cat 2/3 hurricane. (Prior run had it over land on Sunday)

Overall All of Florida and parts of the southeast need to watch, the cone is still good. GFS I think is too far north this run and wasn't initialized properly, or it's having issues with TD#6 and the ridging. The trend toward stronger storms is troubling. Interestingly the majority of the ensemble GFS members still landfall in Florida and all of the 18Z Euro Ensemble models are into or just off Florida.


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