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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #100551 - Mon Sep 02 2019 04:13 PM

could it possibly get pulled west more?

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GeorgeN
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100552 - Mon Sep 02 2019 04:50 PM

Quote:

Here's a question, Is there any risk of the system in the gulf interacting with Dorian and shifting the track.

I'm thinking about the Fujiwara effect.




There is a possibility though that effect has not been documented when there is a large land mass between the storms. I'll watch the basin images more closely. It's quite an interesting hypothesis.


I've actually been impressed with the forecast models this time, though I'm learning to discredit extrapolation error. I would really like to see spaghetti models that end at the point where the forecast model has less than 90% confidence. Extrapolation beyond that point is not advisable and often brings doubt on the forecast model. Has anyone looked for leading indicators abound the models for this storm? I'm curious to know which ones have signaled change and why.

JMII , I for one don't think you would get fired if you were at the NHC. Government staff know how to censure themselves from making career limiting statements.

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Wesley Chapel FL

Edited by GeorgeN (Mon Sep 02 2019 04:51 PM)


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Mike V
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100553 - Mon Sep 02 2019 04:51 PM

The storm surge generated by Dorian is incredible. You need to see the footage in the various videos that are in this article. People are going to have to re-think how you build houses in hurricane zones.

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2019/09/02/...truction-813465

These poor people are going to be in a world of hurt.

Mike V.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100554 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:07 PM

It's more likely to go further east and off the coast than west at this point, but both are possible, it may get a little closer to the Florida east coast, but the NHC track is pretty good. I don't think there will be any more surprises. (Other than how bad the surge along the east coast may wind up being) Folks along the coast still may see hurricane conditions, and NC may still get clipped.

Right now the storm isn't moving at all, so I'll still be watching and waiting, I'd check back in the morning.


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100555 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:11 PM

Its just stalled... sitting there, not moving at all. This was forecasted but watching it is brutal. Its moved maybe 30 miles in the last 20 hours? I can't see how anything will be left on the island

Not sure what to make of this with stall... with no steering currents it is still forecast to head NW but it needs to go about 30 miles NW to make its next forecast position in 3 hours. Given its pace of ZERO that seems unlikely. The eye is wobbling around, in fact it might gone slightly NE.

Reports of surge effecting Broward, Two Georges Grille (Boynton Beach) on the Intracoastal is starting to flood.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100556 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:20 PM

Quote:

As usual the 5 day cone in particular is nearly worthless since it contains about 200 miles worth of error.




Not entirely worhtless, even in Dorian's case. 5 days ago, during Advisory 17A, they had the storm hinting at a recurve to the north. Yes, the Monday 8AM position was set too high and didn't account for the stall in the Bahamas (about 158nm off of the actual point), but even in that advisory the 4 day forecast spot was an error of about 62-72 nm off the actual position of the storm for 4 days out. That's actually remarkable. And we need a few more days to see if that Monday 8AM forecast position that was "off" ends up actually being close to being "on", if not for the day/time forecast. Time will tell on that one.

I'd say the NHC has almost...almost...gotten the 48 hour forecasting down to a reasonable science. They're doing real good work on the 48-96 hour range, and the 120 hour range is still fairly remarkable considering how unimaginably complex these dynamic atmospheric systems are.

--------------------
Londovir


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HurricaneSteph
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100559 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:27 PM

Last couple of frames look like a turn to NE has begun...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

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HurricaneSteph
Orlando


Edited by HurricaneSteph (Mon Sep 02 2019 05:28 PM)


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Rhino
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: HurricaneSteph]
      #100560 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:51 PM

It's not moving, those are nothing but wobbles. NE motion won't start until tomorrow

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rhino]
      #100561 - Mon Sep 02 2019 05:52 PM

18Z GFS is coming in. Its showing a slight jog east.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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IndianRockswx
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: HurricaneSteph]
      #100562 - Mon Sep 02 2019 06:00 PM

Looks that way, and the Northwest side is getting pushed back flat too...
https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,26.647,-78.898,7


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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IndianRockswx]
      #100563 - Mon Sep 02 2019 06:47 PM

if hurricane Dorian was to weaken more... would it be easier to be pushed west or pulled up?

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engicedave
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100565 - Mon Sep 02 2019 08:59 PM

Been staring at and refreshing the Long Range Base Reflectivity out of MLB, and Dorian is on the move (as of about 8:45pm)

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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: engicedave]
      #100566 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:05 PM

which direction?

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engicedave
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100567 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:07 PM

Quote:

which direction?


'

I'm sorry, IMO more due west


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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: engicedave]
      #100568 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:08 PM

ok... estimated speed?

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StormHound
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: engicedave]
      #100569 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:10 PM

Quote:

Been staring at and refreshing the Long Range Base Reflectivity out of MLB, and Dorian is on the move (as of about 8:45pm)




Not seeing that on satellite yet. Looks like we are still at a dead stop.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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engicedave
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100570 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:13 PM

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb&product=N0Z&loop=yes

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: engicedave]
      #100571 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:20 PM

Hard to tell if its moving because the eye is getting flattened a bit. Just been wobbling in place for 24 hours. The NW in particular is being influenced by the ridge coming thru the SE US right now. A wedge of dry air is filling in the east. Overall outflow is being limited. Dorian has run out of warm ocean water and is stuck, trapped between several competing weather patterns. Its like a massive tug-of-war, something has to give. At one point (days ago) the storm had became elongated from NW to SE, now that has flopped. The almost perfectly round structure is going away. Not sure what to make of it but the only way out seems to be to the NE.

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Kraig
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100572 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:25 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Been staring at and refreshing the Long Range Base Reflectivity out of MLB, and Dorian is on the move (as of about 8:45pm)




Not seeing that on satellite yet. Looks like we are still at a dead stop.




Agreed....no movement other than wobbles...

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100573 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:38 PM

even though its not a big jog west... it looks like it took a tiny shift south west. and the Weather Channel did say it shifted a tiny bit west.

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