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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100574 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:53 PM

Quote:

even though its not a big jog west... it looks like it took a tiny shift south west. and the Weather Channel did say it shifted a tiny bit west.




Yes, a tiny jog SW, but that was preceded by a tiny jog N. It is mostly back where it was 6 hours ago.

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Storm Hound
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ObsFromNWFL
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100575 - Mon Sep 02 2019 09:59 PM

this is a 10 hr loop. not moving at all. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/se...s&length=60

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100576 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:09 PM

Not moving example:

First frame is 1:50PM Today, second is about 5 minutes ago. (Check Date at top since time is UTC) Dorian is more ragged tonight, for sure., but hasn't moved.



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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100577 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:35 PM

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/se...8&length=96

Question?
Thoughts?
With the ridge coming across the US and fast approaching it looks like there is no chance of this storm making it to ga/sc/nc at least In my opinion.
There is also a fairly strong ridge that has remained to its east. Outflow is beginning to look strong to the south. Could this storm possibly be pushed a good bit south with the ridges closing in so quickly on it?
Could it find weakness to its east and be pushed back thru a ridge that is weaker then what is coming from its NW?
Just wondering based on what seems to be taking place in this model?


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engicedave
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100578 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:38 PM

My bad, thought it was finally moving
I am embarrassed


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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100579 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:40 PM

The pressure in the east is building shown in the link below... wondering if this storm could actually push southwest into Florida???

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dl...zoom=&time=


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IndianRockswx
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100580 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:46 PM

geez man good question...well from the impressive imagery tonight..weakening might not be in the discussion for a couple cycles..but if it did..of course it would shoot North due to the response to the East /West barocline from Tallahassee to Jacksonville showing some influence..and the wall it has hit over the last 6 hours will decide when it does shoot for the North-Northwest..coinciding with the predicted skirting the coast and then recurving away from land as it crosses into the waters off of Jacksonville..impressive storm...hope people dont take it lightly..

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IndianRockswx
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100581 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:49 PM

judging from the already hours long static nature of it..probably not..but dont ever say never...

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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: engicedave]
      #100582 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:52 PM

We all have thought it’s jumped a little.
The link I posted gives a 4 hour in advance forecast (who’s to say it’s correct) but it seems to show the eye off shore like it is now at 1030p and almost looks as if by 230a that the eye may be completely back over land to its southwest.
Some of the far out models like the tabs once showed the Dorian crossing Fl into the gold and coming straight back. I begin to wonder if there is not a chance of it being pushed south or straight back east from its current spot.
The ridge over the US is really coming down quick


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dolfinatic
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100583 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:58 PM

Quote:

The pressure in the east is building shown in the link below... wondering if this storm could actually push southwest into Florida???

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dl...zoom=&time=


I see what you are getting at. Im starting to think that the storm might miss the trough. On that last frame it appears the trough is pulling out. If that is the case all bets are off. Starting to look like a timing issue and if he remains stationary or keeps wobbling south then we have a whole new ball game. Critical next 12 hours it seems

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100584 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:58 PM

11pm is tagged as 130mph, now, it's looking a little ragged, but probably because of the combo of sitting in one place all day and the eyewall trying to reform. FWIW I don't see anything wrong with the NHC's forecast and don't expect any big changes, we'll find out tomorrow afternoon. The blocking rigde to the north shifted to the east of Dorian, the high to the west isn't terribly strong and is shifting west, but enough to hold Dorian back from moving west--but not for too much longer at which point it'll probably get pushed more north by the area to its east, the trough should upset the balance enough nudge it north and then it should catch enough to sling out into the Atlantic by Thursday or so.


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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100585 - Mon Sep 02 2019 10:59 PM

is it even possible for it to be pushed down south since the trough is coming down so fast and the one in the east is pushing east fast???

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hurricanetracker
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100586 - Mon Sep 02 2019 11:12 PM

I see what your saying... if he misses the trough or the trough is pushed up... definitely a different ball game. if it does miss the lift up in the trough... South Florida could be in over their heads???

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JumadukeFL
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100588 - Tue Sep 03 2019 02:00 AM

Thanks to everyone doing some great analysis here. I've been lurking for days and learning a lot.

Quote:

this is a 10 hr loop. not moving at all. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/se...s&length=60




Piggybacking on the link above, I did some investigating and found the graphic below. This one is particularly interesting. It really shows the system over the continental U.S. and how it might influence Dorian. I see one of two scenarios: Dorian is sling-shot into the Atlantic to the East, or it gets pressed further SW towards the Keys. However, the models all still insist that he's going to head North. Thoughts?


https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=96


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JumadukeFL]
      #100589 - Tue Sep 03 2019 02:17 AM

Quote:

Piggybacking on the link above, I did some investigating and found the graphic below. This one is particularly interesting. It really shows the system over the continental U.S. and how it might influence Dorian. I see one of two scenarios: Dorian is sling-shot into the Atlantic to the East, or it gets pressed further SW towards the Keys. However, the models all still insist that he's going to head North. Thoughts?




Dorian is expected to begin moving NW or NNW shortly, as the High over the Gulf becomes less influential, while the High to Dorian's east becomes more so. The effect of this is more of a shove from the southeast (from the anticyclone centered east of Dorian), than a shove from the northwest (from the anticyclone centered west of Dorian).


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100591 - Tue Sep 03 2019 04:49 AM

Good WV loop showing dry air pushing down from the NW.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/se...8&length=24

I just dont see how Dorian will move NW or NNW for very long. It looks more like a future track to the N and then NE to me. Can an expert weigh-in?

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Edited by OrlandoDan (Tue Sep 03 2019 05:20 AM)


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gsand
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100592 - Tue Sep 03 2019 05:34 AM

Recon found center, pressure's up to 952, open eye to the SW:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 9:08Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 37
Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 8:47:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.95N 78.39W
B. Center Fix Location: 105 statute miles (168 km) to the E (81°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,683m (8,802ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 140° at 6kts (From the SE at 7mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 92kts (105.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 8:41:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 46° at 97kts (From the NE at 111.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 8:39:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 83kts (95.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 8:53:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 222° at 112kts (From the SW at 128.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 8:53:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2

Edited by gsand (Tue Sep 03 2019 05:35 AM)


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100594 - Tue Sep 03 2019 08:50 AM

Quote:

I just dont see how Dorian will move NW or NNW for very long. It looks more like a future track to the N and then NE to me. Can an expert weigh-in?




No expert, but I have the same thoughts, that ridge is massive and strong, Dorian's only path out appears to be NE. The dry air is all the way across the Panhandle and filling in the rest of the state fast. The storm is becoming very elongated along the N/S axis.

Just glad its finally moving. Structure looks really bad this AM (on radar and IR), all the energy is NE, eye has clouded over, outflow to the NW is crumbling, winds down and pressure up. Mercifully the beast is finally giving up on the Bahamas and moving on.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100595 - Tue Sep 03 2019 08:51 AM

Quote:

Good WV loop showing dry air pushing down from the NW.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/se...8&length=24

I just dont see how Dorian will move NW or NNW for very long. It looks more like a future track to the N and then NE to me. Can an expert weigh-in?



The experts have weighed in. The NHC, all of the best global models and their ensembles, all of the hurricane-centric models. There is great unanimity in this forecast. While anything is seemingly possible (especially with a storm like Dorian), it is very unlikely that the forecast of either a NW to N to NE track doesn't take. What is very possible is that the NE track takes sooner than expected. In other words, Dorian is now already drifting to the NNW - and it is conceivable that he begins bending to the NE sooner rather than later (which is supported by some of the models and/or their ensembles, and certainly also the Cone of Uncertainty).

As for why that great wall of dry air is by itself not going to close the door on a further NW to N motion and said NW-N motion remains more likely in the near term, is that the approaching dry air from the north is but one several competing influences. The High to Dorian's east continues to have the greatest odds of imparting a general NW to N track for the next 12-40 hours. In fact, if Dorian continues to become less deep, even the lowest level westerlies could impart a more westerly component to his motion (doubtfully due west, but maybe a little west of Cone).


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IanB
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Mike V]
      #100599 - Tue Sep 03 2019 10:36 AM

Mike V wrote: "People are going to have to re-think how you build houses in hurricane zones."

Which begs the question: What is a hurricane zone?

After Andrew, the Florida Building Code designated only Miami-Dade and Broward counties as being in the state's "High Velocity Hurricane Zone".

Actually, the entire state of Florida is a "High Velocity Hurricane Zone" - and the Florida Building Code should be updated to say exactly that!


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