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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100602 - Tue Sep 03 2019 12:17 PM

Quote:


The The High to Dorian's east continues to have the greatest odds of imparting a general NW to N track for the next 12-40 hours. In fact, if Dorian continues to become less deep, even the lowest level westerlies could impart a more westerly component to his motion (doubtfully due west, but maybe a little west of Cone).



A more westward "slap in the face" for east central Florida near or just north of the Cape would not surprise me a bit given the dynamics involved. Dorian unwinding this morning due to sitting in place over the northern Bahamas greatly elevated my spirits about potential damage where I live, and the forecast track 75 or more miles offshore is great, but the expanding eye and wind field along with the most intense mid-day bands congregating on the north (forward) then NW of Dorian's eye could still produce sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to near hurricane force tonight and tomorrow morning as the hurricane approaches my latitude.
I finally "relaxed' today for the first time in many days, but everything I did to prepare for Dorian will remain in effect until Dorian departs my latitude late Wednesday.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Sep 03 2019 01:12 PM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100604 - Tue Sep 03 2019 01:16 PM

Weather Channel's Carl Parker just said the strong banding on the north side of Dorian's circulation may not make it onshore when it wraps around the center given the distance offshore and dry air intrusion

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100605 - Tue Sep 03 2019 02:26 PM

ok, back over open water, will this thing strengthen?
I understand the water is very warm in this area of the Atalanta


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GeorgeN
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: DougBaker]
      #100609 - Tue Sep 03 2019 04:48 PM

Quote:

ok, back over open water, will this thing strengthen?
I understand the water is very warm in this area of the Atalanta




It isn't forecast to increase back to a major hurricane, but there will be warm water till it rounds the Carolina's.

https://www.seatemperature.org/atlantic-ocean

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL


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Mike V
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 29
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IanB]
      #100615 - Tue Sep 03 2019 05:52 PM

Quote:

Mike V wrote: "People are going to have to re-think how you build houses in hurricane zones."

Which begs the question: What is a hurricane zone?

After Andrew, the Florida Building Code designated only Miami-Dade and Broward counties as being in the state's "High Velocity Hurricane Zone".

Actually, the entire state of Florida is a "High Velocity Hurricane Zone" - and the Florida Building Code should be updated to say exactly that!




I whole heartedly agree. Shades of Andrew on many of the videos that are coming out of Abaco and GBI. Miami would be toast and I don't care how far inland you are.

Mike V.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Mike V]
      #100616 - Tue Sep 03 2019 05:57 PM

But should note that FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) are being updated, aggressively some would say.

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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Orlando
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rubber Ducky]
      #100617 - Tue Sep 03 2019 06:23 PM

SFWMD Radar: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Mike V]
      #100619 - Tue Sep 03 2019 07:09 PM

Another unreal bit of data here - an official NOAA station on the very NW tip of Grand Bahama Island only recorded a gust of 78 mph during this whole ordeal. This station was about 44 miles from the eye. Seems almost impossible that just down the road it was blowing 100 mph more.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timese...raw=0&w=325


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100620 - Tue Sep 03 2019 07:20 PM

The western eyeball was camped on top of and parallel to the north/south oriented Water Cay - north side Grand Bahama - for an ungodly length of time. About 50 souls live on the Cay. Only connection to GB is by boat. But it has some caves ... allegedly used by Blackbeard in earlier days. Had to have been hell. Hope all survived.

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GeorgeN
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rubber Ducky]
      #100622 - Tue Sep 03 2019 07:40 PM

Quote:

But should note that FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) are being updated, aggressively some would say.




FEMA does all floodplain maps out of a central location, usually using data provided by surveyors hired by developers. In Florida, these developers elevate their properties and push water to existing residents, thus increasing their flood potential. If FEMA is updating the maps then I surmise this is by request of the insurance companies. To my knowledge, they do not review maps unless they are paid to do so.

Are there any wind reports from the Cape/Cocoa area? Seems like a large part of the storm has started to send bands across there.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL


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gvl, fl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Gainesville, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #100623 - Tue Sep 03 2019 07:55 PM

My mom said her power went off in Cocoa at about 6:50 p.m. They are definitely getting some wind, but I doubt it's that bad.

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ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100624 - Tue Sep 03 2019 08:14 PM

18z GFS just up. Has shifted slightly west.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100625 - Tue Sep 03 2019 08:18 PM

Eye seems to be reforming on the IR Satellite, it's moving more north than west though, so I expect the worst won't be too bad in Florida, SC/NC risk is increasing though.

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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #100626 - Tue Sep 03 2019 08:19 PM

Whole separate discussion on FIRM maps. In general, pretty independently derived. Elevation surveys and flood insurance required if any part of a property is in an A or V zone. Communities and real-estate interests can comment on proposed maps, but ultimate decision is FEMA bureaucratic and, appears to me, objective.

Wind: three-quarters mile from beach in Cocoa Beach ... Davis Vantage Vue gadget on my roof shows average wind speed 15 - 20 mph gusting into the 30s. Out of around 330. Highest gust 39 mph at 1815. .11 inches rain all day.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100630 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:09 PM

The strong outer band that went through my location in coastal Volusia has set up along I-4 from Daytona Bch SW through Orlando: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Would not want to be driving on the interstate tonight!

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100631 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:12 PM

Doppler estimates rainfall rate 2"+ last hour in this band: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N1P&overlay=11101111&loop=no

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Sep 03 2019 09:13 PM)


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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100635 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:49 PM

What on earth is going on here?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes

Edit: Looks like dry air in the eye:

https://imgur.com/SvcXMwp


Edited by gsand (Tue Sep 03 2019 10:22 PM)


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 153
Loc: United States
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gsand]
      #100639 - Wed Sep 04 2019 12:21 AM

44 mph gust on the Hammock Dunes Bridge Flagler Counter, earlier we had a sustained of 45 mph. Conditions deteriorating quickly in Palm Coast. We currently have scattered power outage.s

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 153
Loc: United States
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: LadyStorm]
      #100641 - Wed Sep 04 2019 04:25 AM

Dorian weakening further currently 100 miles east of Daytona Beach. Winds at 105 mph traveling 8 mph NNW 340 degrees, 963 millibars. 4 am update

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: LadyStorm]
      #100642 - Wed Sep 04 2019 05:16 AM

Last few frames of Cloudtop IR satelitte indicate a burst of deeper convection firing up around the eye and attempting to wrap around.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Edited by OrlandoDan (Wed Sep 04 2019 05:17 AM)


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