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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100107 - Tue Aug 27 2019 11:49 PM

Some of the 0z models:

0z Icon: Clips eastern side of Puerto Rico.. Delray Beach, FL Landfall as a cat 2 hurricane early Monday Morning.
0z GFS: Goes over eastern side of PR (Shift east) then a bit stronger than the last run and a little east out to 60 hours. Stays east of Florida and slows down, slips north offshore of GA/SC on Monday Afternoon. Skirts Outer banks as a cat 3 sep 4th.
0z Legacy GFS: similar to GFS up to 54 hours. Monday morning offshore of Cape Canaveral and north of Grand Bahama Cat 2.
0z Ukmet Ends run monday near Grand Bahama as a Cat 2/3 hurricane moving slowly west southwest.
0z Euro- Landfall near Stuart, FL Sunday Night Cat 2/3, then exits Florida by Clearwater, still as a Cat 2 hurricane, second landfall in the Big Bend, south of Perry, FL early Wednesday morning. Cat 2, the into the Atlantic by Myrtle Beach, SC as a Tropical Storm late Thursday morning.








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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100109 - Wed Aug 28 2019 02:23 AM

Having trouble with the 00 and 06Z runs. They are trending towards a recurve, but punching up through a 1020+ MB pressure. Meanwhile the models are trending towards a stronger, deeper storm that, in theory, would be ridged harder west by high pressure.

That said, the key as always this time of year, is the strength of the Bermuda high. Any word on upcoming Gulfstream sampling missions?


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Joeyfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100110 - Wed Aug 28 2019 04:11 AM

Models really split on long term track GFS now showing hard recurve towards Carolinas, with European a bit further south then its last run with landfall near Fort Pierce FL crosses state into gulf just south of Tampa with second landfall in lower big bend FL. Both showing powerful major hurricane. The folks over at GWO which have been very accurate over past many years including Irma and Michael say FL landfall with secondary landfall possibly also in FL as a major.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #100111 - Wed Aug 28 2019 06:42 AM

6z (More 0z) Roundup
0z Euro- Landfall near Stuart, FL Sunday Night Cat 2/3, then exits Florida by Clearwater, still as a Cat 2 hurricane, second landfall in the Big Bend, south of Perry, FL early Wednesday morning. Cat 2, the into the Atlantic by Myrtle Beach, SC as a Tropical Storm late Thursday morning. (Shift south from prior Run) (Shift south from prior Run, but prior run was way north of earlier runs)
6z GFS Cat 3 Landfall near Charleston, SC (Shift south from prior 0z Run) then rides coastline just inland up to Hatteras as a Cat 2.
0z CMC Cat 2 landfall near Stuart, Fl Late Monday night then rides up spine of Florida. (Shift south from prior 12Z Run)
0z Ukmet Ends run Monday near Grand Bahama as a Cat 2/3 hurricane moving slowly west southwest. (No real shift, but slower)
0z NavGem Tropical Storm landfall near Melbourne, FL late Sunday night. Second landfall in Destin, still a TS Tuesday night. (slight shift north from prior run)
6z Legacy GFS, Landfall Melbourne, FL Cat 4 early Monday. VERY south from prior 0z run. (Which was a major shift north from the 12Z run) Then rides inland basically up I-95, and exist out near Myrtle Beach, SC Wednesday night.
6z Icon, approaching Key Largo early Monday morning as a Cat 3 (Shift South from 0z run)
0z HWRF (6z not finished yet) Moves over Eastern PR as a strong TS. Ends run approaching St. Augustine as a Cat 4 Monday Morning. (Slight north shift)
-0z HMON (6z not finished yet) Moves over Eastern PR as a strong TS. Ends run east of Cape Canaveral as a Cat 3 Monday Morning.generally pointed toward Daytona. (Slight shift north from prior run, but slower)

HAFS unavailable.

6z HWRF Cat 3/4 hurricane over Kennedy Space Center, Sunday afternoon. Shift south
6z HMON Cat 3 into Melbourne, FL early Monday morning. Shift south, faster.


GFS Shifted way north at last night's run, only to start shifting back south again this morning (The old GFS went even more extreme north back to way south). Euro shifted south from yesterday. Florida is still the most likely target, although there is a bit of a question at the end (If it slows down or not) The majority of GFS ensembles are in Florida as are the Euro ensembles.


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100113 - Wed Aug 28 2019 08:20 AM

The models have not been handling this very well, Dorian has been tracking NE of predicted for awhile now. So much so it might go E of PR, which would be nearly 300 miles off target. Still has to get around the upper level low that is NW of its current position. In fact that low appears to be slowing its progress and keeping Dorian moving more N then W.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100114 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:00 AM

6Z GFS Essemble animation

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Owlguin
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100115 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:10 AM

Agree - the eye seems to be appearing on radar now and it appears to be moving well East of PR and even East outside the cone.

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Reaper
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #100116 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:27 AM

It may even pass through or just nick Hebert box #1 at it's current trajectory

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #100117 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:42 AM

It's in the box now....if I have the coordinates correct for the storm and the Box....I have it highlighted on my tracking map for reference.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Kraig
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #100118 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:43 AM

It's been in it since yesterday.... between 15° and 20° north latitude and 60° to 65° west longitude....

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100119 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:18 AM

11 AM has a major (Cat 3) coming into the Space Coast... not good. Still has to jog around that upper level low and then we will see how the ridge builds in. If the low backs out and ridge builds quicker could be further south. Or the opposite with the high not pushing Dorian as much thus going further north.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Reef Road Rick
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100120 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:44 AM

What is driving the ridge pushing down from the US mainland the next few days? If it strengthens that will keep it headed more westward and into the denser populated area of South Florida, Historically the Space Coast rarely gets hit with a Major, whereas down here in the deep dirty souff of FL, well, let's say we have quite a history. Especially around Labor Day.

Any expert advice?


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Reef Road Rick]
      #100121 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:53 AM

Not an expert but the high / front pushing off the east coast has me worried too, it will block the northern escape route and push Dorian more west. I believe this has come into play because Dorian has been east of forecast and further away which has delayed its arrival to the FL coast. Compared to the earlier models we now have a Mon AM event vs a Sun AM landfall, a full 24 hours behind schedule. This allows more time for the ridge or front to effect things.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100122 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:00 PM

Thanks for that explanation, JMII, of the reasoning for the timing and the slight shift west. It is time for the Greater Orlando area to take notice of this, especially the northern suburbs.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100123 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:40 PM

Quote:

especially the northern suburbs.




It far, far too early to have any specific portion of a metro on alert. All of Florida and GA EC are in the cone.

The NHC averages an error of 200 miles at 5 days and this is a low confidince forecast.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100124 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:53 PM

Yes. I stand corrected.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100125 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:58 PM

Ok, I know I don't post a lot on here anymore but I do read a lot. If these questions I'm going to ask are in the wrong place, feel free to let me know. Ok. My son is attending law school at the University of Florida. Since he is not an undergraduate he lives in an apartment with his fiancee and he isn't sure what would happen if his apartment got hit. Where he would live, what would happen to their furniture, etc. They do have renters insurance so I believe that would cover any damage to his furniture. I told him to reach out to UF to see if they have a plan in place for off campus students and also told him to reach out to his apartment complex to see what would happen IF his apartment were to get hit. He has flashlights, batteries, water, canned goods. I told him to also make sure that he has fruit (apples, oranges, bananas) that do not have to be refrigerated. They are filling up their cars tonight and getting cash out. I also told him to make sure they have all important paperwork together and in a safe place with them. He's not sure if he wants to come home yet. I know I'm not plotting maps, models or spaghetti plots but he's nervous and I just wanted to know if anyone had anymore advice I could give him. He's never done this on his own before, so any help would be appreciated. I also gave him the website address so he can follow along. Thank you so much in advance. Colleen A.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Joeyfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100126 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:59 PM

This looks to be hurricane virgin islands in northern eyeball feature wind obs sustained 70 to 83 mph with gusts 90 to 95 mph albeit some of these are at higher elevations wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane next advisory at 2pm.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #100128 - Wed Aug 28 2019 01:11 PM

Re: Colleen A's question:
Quote:

Ok, I know I don't post a lot on here anymore but I do read a lot. If these questions I'm going to ask are in the wrong place, feel free to let me know. Ok. My son is attending law school at the University of Florida. Since he is not an undergraduate he lives in an apartment with his fiancee and he isn't sure what would happen if his apartment got hit. Where he would live, what would happen to their furniture, etc. They do have renters insurance so I believe that would cover any damage to his furniture. I told him to reach out to UF to see if they have a plan in place for off campus students and also told him to reach out to his apartment complex to see what would happen IF his apartment were to get hit. He has flashlights, batteries, water, canned goods. I told him to also make sure that he has fruit (apples, oranges, bananas) that do not have to be refrigerated. They are filling up their cars tonight and getting cash out. I also told him to make sure they have all important paperwork together and in a safe place with them. He's not sure if he wants to come home yet. I know I'm not plotting maps, models or spaghetti plots but he's nervous and I just wanted to know if anyone had anymore advice I could give him. He's never done this on his own before, so any help would be appreciated. I also gave him the website address so he can follow along. Thank you so much in advance. Colleen A.




Hello Colleen good to see ya! I've opened a Dorian Prep ASK/TELL - please put this and any other preparation questions there. DORIAN PREP ASK/TELL

The Dorian Lounge needs to be related to forecasts, model outputs, etc.


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100130 - Wed Aug 28 2019 01:59 PM

How about observations from sat reviews? It was good to see Coleen post here again.
I just spent a half hour looking at the western ATL sat loops which presented the picture of the complex situation ahead of Doreen. . ..There is a weak ULL feature to its NW and it is being influenced by the flow around that feature. Ahead of that feature is a NW-SE flow which then becomes westerly over the FL Straits. The ULL is not strong and its influence on Doreen seems to be lessening. If so the NW track currently being seen should become more WNW..fairly soon.
In the CONUS: NW of Florida a trough is pushing SE-E toward exiting CONUS probably in a day or two. By then Doreen should be in the lower Bahamas where a more traditional SE-NW flow should be evident.. A generally easterly flow seems to be following across the ATL behind all this. And if it becomes more of an influence it could be the cause for Doreen to take a more westerly path.
I think this complex situation will begin to be come more clear by tomorrow.

--------------------
doug


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