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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 868
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100137 - Wed Aug 28 2019 04:04 PM

Late tomorrow into late Friday will be when the projected path begins to firm up. Track guidance is generally very good within 72 hours of landfall. That being said, folks over here in the Tampa Bay Area are well aware of the potential impact from Dorian. I'll be making my final arrangements on Friday before I leave work. If Dorian ends up crossing the state, we'd be looking at a strong TS here sometime during Monday (also a work day for me). Right now, I'm in watch and wait mode. The next track guidance adjustment will be the 5PM advisory ensemble.

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100142 - Wed Aug 28 2019 05:04 PM

Quote:

The next track guidance adjustment will be the 5PM advisory ensemble.




5PM update is out with very little change, small adjustment south as expected to the official forecast

Hurricane winds only push out to 15 miles so a small core with TS winds out 80 miles


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 124
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100143 - Wed Aug 28 2019 05:14 PM

I'm not liking some of the latest model runs being near Destin at all..... but with that said there's a LOT of variation in the intensity forecasts as well, including one that reduces it to nearly-not-a-TS by the time it exits into the Gulf near Tampa and while it'll wreck your day if it verifies even on the east coast it won't be anything close a major.

The Euro IMHO has a poor init on the storm right now and also has an insanely-strong high centered over Maine on the 1st that is the impetus for the due-west forcing pattern. I'm not buying that one given the lack of a good init and not sure I buy that evolution in the pattern either.

I suspect until somewhere around late tomorrow into early Friday we're going to have a lot of "dancing models" on this thing; by then they should all have a better handle on this thing.


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100144 - Wed Aug 28 2019 05:56 PM

Quote:

Late tomorrow into late Friday will be when the projected path begins to firm up. Track guidance is generally very good within 72 hours of landfall. That being said, folks over here in the Tampa Bay Area are well aware of the potential impact from Dorian. I'll be making my final arrangements on Friday before I leave work. If Dorian ends up crossing the state, we'd be looking at a strong TS here sometime during Monday (also a work day for me). Right now, I'm in watch and wait mode. The next track guidance adjustment will be the 5PM advisory ensemble.



Well I guess the good news is that if the strike is aimed at us today, it will be somewhere else by Sunday.

But the bad news is that it might not be very far away...


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100145 - Wed Aug 28 2019 06:13 PM

I worry about the high. I agree the Euro has been off a lot this cane but my question is right now the hurricane force winds are in a very small area. As it gets closer in the next 3 days to 5 days will that expand a lot?

I expect more flops we shall see.


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 41
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100146 - Wed Aug 28 2019 07:11 PM

On Day 3, the width of 50kt winds extends 20-40mi out depending on direction and 64kt winds are likely 2/3 that distance so it is still really a buzz saw. Same strength on day 4 and it may slightly expand then. Once it hits land on Day 5 I would expect the top insensity to reduce but the wind field to spread out more. Time will tell!

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100149 - Wed Aug 28 2019 08:18 PM

Evening model roundup, and it's a doozy:

18Z GFS: Landfall Cat 3 near Daytona Beach, pre dawn Monday. then stays inalnd.
18Z Legacy GFS: Landfall Melbourne, FL Late Sunday Night, cat 3
12Z CMC Landfall near Vero Beach, Sunday Midday, 2nd landfall near Ft. Walton Beach, Wednesday Morning as a Tropical Storm
18Z NavGem Lanfall near St. Augustine Cat 2 Monday Morning
18Z Icon East of Miami Cat 3 Monday Morning.
12Z Euro Cat 3 landfall near West Palm Beach Sunday night, exits into the Gulf near Ft. Myers as a cat 2, then Cat 3 into Pensacola midday thursday.
18Z HWRF Borderline Cat 4/5 near Port Canaveral Monday Morning
18Z HMON Cat 2 into Melbourne, FL

HWRF is most alarming, but all of them are S or E. Central Florida.


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100150 - Wed Aug 28 2019 08:43 PM

Quote:

Evening model roundup, and it's a doozy:

18Z GFS: Landfall Cat 3 near Daytona Beach, pre dawn Monday. then stays inalnd.
18Z Legacy GFS: Landfall Melbourne, FL Late Sunday Night, cat 3
12Z CMC Landfall near Vero Beach, Sunday Midday, 2nd landfall near Ft. Walton Beach, Wednesday Morning as a Tropical Storm
18Z NavGem Lanfall near St. Augustine Cat 2 Monday Morning
18Z Icon East of Miami Cat 3 Monday Morning.
12Z Euro Cat 3 landfall near West Palm Beach Sunday night, exits into the Gulf near Ft. Myers as a cat 2, then Cat 3 into Pensacola midday thursday.
18Z HWRF Borderline Cat 4/5 near Port Canaveral Monday Morning
18Z HMON Cat 2 into Melbourne, FL

HWRF is most alarming, but all of them are S or E. Central Florida.





Would you not consider them to be north central Florida besides the one outliner and the 12Z ones are older.


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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100151 - Wed Aug 28 2019 09:15 PM

well after a long day of State EM calls, local EM calls, NHC briefings, discussions with NWS, more briefing with the State, I've decided that Dorian will land somewhere. The models still have a lot of variation to them.
Over in the Tampa area, we are leaning forward and I'll be at work Saturday thru...whenever.
On the east coast...where I actually live, I expect we'll have a few bad days. Current track puts the black line right thru Palm Bay heading NW.
I'd expect some more variation to this as tomorrow progresses.

15 years ago for Labor Day we were doing the same thing here in Vero Beach! Hunker down!

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Sheeper]
      #100153 - Wed Aug 28 2019 09:44 PM

Here on Clearwater Beach we are already being overwhelmed by web traffic by people looking at conditions and information. We are plugging FLhurricane.com as a source. (Hope that is OK.) There is world-wide attention on Florida right now, maybe more than Michael or Irma from what we've seen in the past for this much time out. Guess Hurricanes are big news ($$$$).



Hurricane Dorian Conditions Live - HD Beach Cam in Clearwater Beach, Florida

We plan to provide updates and absolutely consider FLhurricane as the most valuable local resource for we who live and have businesses in Florida, and visitors/tourist should know about it..

Anxious about what will solidify, knowing that so many "big" storms are not all that (watching countless live Weather Channel feeds), but some are horribly destructive. Here in Tampa Bay we are taking it serious, for sure, but most of us are still waiting to see what happens through tomorrow.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100155 - Wed Aug 28 2019 09:54 PM

Plugging is fine. We're decently prepared for traffic. Although it could get slow at times if it gets overwhelmed. I'm working with Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack to get some of the remote cams up probably on Saturday or Sunday wherever it makes sense for Dorian's ultimate track.

We'll throw up the usual recordings when the system gets closer.


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100156 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:22 PM

Quote:

We're decently prepared for traffic. Although it could get slow at times if it gets overwhelmed.



Streaming cams can be a pain, especially in HD. I just had to reboot our NVR as it must have been over-taxed a little while ago. I have been trying h.265 compression but might have to go back to h.264 which is proven and works well. I like the quality of h.265, but seems to hang up with the service I use.

Live cams are popular and a powerful visuals for visitors far away. So worth the work.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100157 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:22 PM

Quote:

I'm working with Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack to get some of the remote cams up probably on Saturday or Sunday wherever it makes sense for Dorian's ultimate track.





Thanks for doing this. I'll be doing a time lapse like I did for Irma from northern Broward County HERE. I don't live stream because I use my bandwidth for refreshing about 20 different websites (like this one) during landfall.

Model guidance is being to align and things are looking bad no matter how you slice it. Dorian can't go around or thru the ridge of high pressure to the north so westward is his only path. As always timing will be critical. Hopefully the core stays small to avoid doing wide spread damage like Wilma did.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100158 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:23 PM Attachment (17 downloads)

Past hour or two looks like dry air intrusion and maybe an ERC?

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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 104
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Sheeper]
      #100159 - Thu Aug 29 2019 12:00 AM

15 Years ago was a bad couple of weeks here in Vero Beach! I believe we are better prepared to deal with a Cat3 storm than we were in 04'. Still, you hope people take it seriously, get prepared or leave. Our normal rule of thumb is over 125, we get out of town. We have reservations in 3 locations to the north and south. Given the low confidence of the models to date, I believe the Navgem has been the best so far in handling Dorian. It was the first to pick up on the storm formation and to show a (likely) Florida landfall. Dorian looks a little ragged this evening and on the PR radar seems to be entraining some dry air. This shouldn't continue for much longer and I expect to see a much better looking satellite signature in the morning. Good luck.

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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1431
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100161 - Thu Aug 29 2019 12:30 AM

Thank you, my friend. I got a lot of good information from that from that link that you shared with me. I know that you all will be busy the next few days and I will help in anyway I can. Have a good night.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100162 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:15 AM

Quote:

Past hour or two looks like dry air intrusion and maybe an ERC?




It look like it did take on a big slug of dryer air as an ERC would be taking place. The last couple of frames of the floater seem to be showing a eye / soft spot that reformed a bit to the SW where the previous center was tracking. If this materializes, I wonder if this will translate to a somewhat more southern solution at 5a.

Either way, I suspect that this the last disruption Dorian is likely to undergo before it takes off.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100163 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:09 AM

SHIP actually predicted a pause/slight waning for 24 hours before intensification again

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100164 - Thu Aug 29 2019 03:06 AM

00Z runs of GFS and Euro have both shifted. GFS looks farther north around Savanna. Euro still south but then a drastic recurve right up the spine of Florida.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100166 - Thu Aug 29 2019 07:58 AM

There's not a lot of time for me this morning, but quick rundown of 6zs (or 12Z)

General trend is a bit south, but mostly unchanged other than most not showing it out into the Gulf.

6Z GFS: Cat 3 landfall near Cape Canaveral Midday Monday then curving inland.
6z Legacy GFS landfall Cat 3/4 near Vero Beach late Monday night then rides inland along the coast all the way to the Carolinas.
0z Euro landfall near West Palm Beach, early Afternoon Monday as a cat 3 (possibly 4). then rides up the middle of the state to JAX by Thursday and inland to North Carolina by next Saturday.
0z CMC Landfall near West Palm Monday Afternoon as cat 2/3, then rides coast inland
6z Navgem Landfall near Miami Cat 3, Tuesday midday,
6z Icon approaching Miami cat 3 by Tuesday morning.
0z Ukmet landfall near West Palm Beach as a Cat 3 Late Monday night.
6z HWRF Landfall Early Monday Morning cat 4 near Cape Canaveral,
6z HMON landfall near Boca Raton Cat 3 then exits into the Gulf north of Naples.


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