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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100168 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:25 AM

I saw on the FLHurricane Facebook page that someone states the storm will be passing over Orlando. Is this just a guess or is there something that shows this track?.

" landfalling in East Central Florida Sunday night into Monday Morning, then moves it over Orlando by Monday Afternoon"


Edited by Ed G (Thu Aug 29 2019 09:43 AM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100170 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:47 AM

That was just a verbal description of where the line is but NHC track (line not cone) has it SW of Orlando (Winter Haven/Lake Wales) at 85 mph at 2AM Tuesday. If tracks a little bit more to the north and Orlando is a little closer to the coast so could see 100mph. But that’s still a lot of what ifs and extrapolation. The forecast track and intensity is going to change several times so if you’re in the cone you need to be ready.

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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100171 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:55 AM

Thank you lunker. Is there a website where one can zoom in on the NHC track, without the spaghetti graphic?

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100172 - Thu Aug 29 2019 10:09 AM

Quote:

Thank you lunker. Is there a website where one can zoom in on the NHC track, without the spaghetti graphic?




I use the WunderMap at wunderground.com, HERE turn on the hurricane layer.

Some of the models are seeing a weakness in the ridge at the end of the run, thus a turn north right before or immediately after landfall.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100173 - Thu Aug 29 2019 10:14 AM

Some of the Euro ensembles are showing a sharp recurve this morning, although the majority are still into Florida. That's somewhat a change, but others have shifted a bit south, so I suspect the 11AM will actually shift the track a bit south (barely) mainly because of the TVCN model. Multiple features impacting direction. ULL to the west, one in the Gulf later, the ridge to the north, short waves in the Ohio Valley, all are some of the moving pieces.

The Upper level low to the west of Dorian is what will likely drive it more north today, and then pinwheel around to the west later. Water vapor satellite images are the easiest to visualize this.



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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 41
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100175 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:00 AM

I'm hoping that Euro late recurve is the start of a trend that keeps moving a little (or a lot!!) east with each run.....

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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Stork
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Palm City, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100176 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:39 AM

The NHC also has a zoomable map if you scroll to Dorian and click on

'Warnings/Cone Interactive Map'

In addition to being able to zoom on the track, it also has boxes that can be checked to overlay a few different kinds of information. (Most likely arrival time of TS winds, etc.)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 322
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100177 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:40 AM

I`m hearing a Cat 4 at landfall possible some where in east central Florida. A storm that intense will change everything here on the barrier island. I hope the hammer doesn`t fall here, and I hope central east coast Florida takes this very serious

Edited by B.C.Francis (Thu Aug 29 2019 11:42 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #100178 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:46 AM

Best way to think about a Tropical system is a Pinball Machine.. the flow is to the bottom as the ball (Storm) traverses but it bounces around ULLs and other disturbances on it's flow... or you can think of a ballon on a stream... as it goes thru it will bounce around rocks.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100179 - Thu Aug 29 2019 12:16 PM

Quote:

The Upper level low to the west of Dorian is what will likely drive it more north today, and then pinwheel around to the west later. Water vapor satellite images are the easiest to visualize this.




It was very easy to see this AM with outflow limited to the W and all the high level clouds moving N. However it already appears to be eroding has the high level clouds at the extreme end of the northern outflow channel have gotten a tiny bit of NW motion to them as we enter the afternoon. Learning a lot watching this storm... the online tools are getting so much better for us non-professionals.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100180 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:15 PM

Quote:

Some of the Euro ensembles are showing a sharp recurve...



I think they're onto something- lets see if this trend continues in future runs. A slow, though fairly sharp, right turn up the spine of Florida (unfortunately after Dorian landfalls along Florida's east coast as a major). Dorian never makes it to the GOMEX. Instead slows and weakens over the peninsula, dumping 10+ inches on portions of already saturated central Florida. Maybe a painfully slow track inland through the state (similar to Frances).

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Aug 29 2019 01:18 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100181 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:48 PM

Busy this afternoon. GFS is really brutal for us in Central Florida, 24 hour long period with hurricane/storm conditions. UKMET is actually fast (landfall WPB Sunday afternoon) and into the Gulf and threatens Mexico Beach now. Euro, and some of the others are still coming out.

Very confusing signals from the various models today.


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TheBeach
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Biloxi, MS
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100182 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:49 PM

Is it just me, or does it appear that Dorian is beginning to make a westward turn in the recent radar loops? If so, how does this effect the model forecasts?

--------------------
Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: TheBeach]
      #100183 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:08 PM

Quote:

Is it just me, or does it appear that Dorian is beginning to make a westward turn in the recent radar loops? If so, how does this effect the model forecasts?




He was east (again) of the NHC line but appears to have jogged back. At this point I wouldn't read too much into these minor wobbles.


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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 449
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100185 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:27 PM

There's still quite a bit of spread with the models. Not much to add except that the core of the storm is relatively small, so fluctuations in strength might be pretty dramatic and rapid. But with nothing to really disrupt the storm, I would think that ERCs will help expand the size of the storm.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100186 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:27 PM

Wobbles happen all the time...shouldn't move west till late Friday night into Saturday.. real question is.. Sunday-Monday will it continue west or will it slow down and move WSW like the Euro (and a few minor models) have been showing.. I think for now.. the best model might be the UKMet but at a slower pace.. Can't say landfall where yet cause it's all speculations with the models being so far apart on days 4 and 5.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100188 - Thu Aug 29 2019 03:31 PM

The 12Z Euro is really strange with a dip to the WSW right before landfall and then a hard recurve to the NNW. Wow.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100189 - Thu Aug 29 2019 03:47 PM

ridge quickly weakens and waits for the Bermuda ridge to control it on days 5-7 thus pushing NNW... thing is... everyone just keep seeing a point of where the models go out to 72hours.. Blend the Euro @72 and the GFS @72 and it will probably be close between them points and both them points might not be that far off

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Rob Moser
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 10
Loc: Naples,FL & Iowa
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100191 - Thu Aug 29 2019 04:34 PM

Why has the National Hurricane Center quit doing intermediate reports? Don't they normally report every 3 hours under these circumstances?

Rob, in answer to your question
Quote:

("Why has the National Hurricane Center quit doing intermediate reports? Don't they normally report every 3 hours under these circumstances?")




Intermediate public advisories are issued every 3 hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect. Additionally, special public advisories may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone. (NHC)
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 30 2019 12:32 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 970
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100192 - Thu Aug 29 2019 04:39 PM

I think we might see a more WNW direction soon. Again just watching the dynamic on the SAT loops...

--------------------
doug


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