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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Rob Moser]
      #100193 - Thu Aug 29 2019 04:40 PM

Quote:

Why has the National Hurricane Center quit doing intermediate reports? Don't they normally report every 3 hours under these circumstances?




Only when a watch or warning is posted. Dorain is out to sea thus no land areas are effected


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100195 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:04 PM

No major changes with the 5PM update, slight shift south

Below is an image that shows the scenarios from a Twitter post that summed things up nicely.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDKeIbcX4AAiZbL.jpg


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kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100196 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:13 PM

Thanks for the chuckle! We needed this for a change from the dire advisories.

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bob3d
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Loc: San Antonio, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100197 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:16 PM

Not sure if this is the correct place to post this link to Florida Governor DeSantis' briefing today that "‘This Track Has A Significant Amount Of Uncertainty’, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Urges Residents To Be Prepared". So here is the link:
Governor DeSantis Statement Today at 12:30PM
I hope it's useful to somebody...

Note: This is NOT a political post. It is intended for information about the Governor's declaration of a State of Emergency and why he made that move, given the uncertainty in the models after 3 days out.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100199 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:39 PM

Also, Dorian remains a very small, compact storm. Even though track forecasts have become much better, these tiny storms seem to be more vulnerable in their tracks as they seem to be influenced more by mesoscale atmospheric conditions, as happened with Hurricane Charley (also a small storm) and its sudden right turn into Punta Gorda. I'd expect some variability in forecast track over the next few days as more data is fed to the models. Of course, after landfall, the wind field will probably expand as the storm winds down. If the current forecast verifies, I don't expect a major impact in the Tampa Bay region.

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100201 - Thu Aug 29 2019 06:53 PM

A few people like or liked the ukmet. Well the 18Z models are out and the cluster on tropical tibets has them more north. The Ukmet had it cross the state at the 12Z and exit around Sarasota. Now it has it come across father up and exit around Tampa. So around 40 to 50 mile leap to the north Just for those who are taking the ukmet as a leader this time around.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100202 - Thu Aug 29 2019 08:27 PM

The UKMET only updates at 12Z and 0z, the last run is faster than the 0z, it makes landfall at west palm beach 4pm EDT Sunday as a 973mb hurricane (which is what Dorian is right now) , exits near Longboat Key around 5pm on Monday around 984mb, then ends the model run south of St. Joseph's peninsula in the Panhandle as a 963mb hurricane 7am on Wednesday.
Double check the dates if you see anything different than that.


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100203 - Thu Aug 29 2019 08:32 PM

Quote:

The UKMET only updates at 12Z and 0z, the last run is faster than the 0z, it makes landfall at west palm beach 4pm EDT Sunday as a 973mb hurricane (which is what Dorian is right now) , exits near Longboat Key around 5pm on Monday around 984mb, then ends the model run south of St. Joseph's peninsula in the Panhandle as a 963mb hurricane 7am on Wednesday.
Double check the dates if you see anything different than that.





I dunno this Met who is also a verified twitter user and storm chaser posted this.

@DylanFedericoWX

It will not let me post a link but his 18Z has ukmet in it and where i said. Only posted what i read.

Chance, I've looked all over Dylan's recent Twitter entries and have found no posts regarding an 18Z UKMET. It's possible he posted in error and deleted, which could be why you were unable to share (what would be an expired) link. He has posted about 18Z EPS. (18z ECMWF ensemble members). Maybe that was it ,who knows ;-) . - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 30 2019 12:54 AM)


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Psyber
Weather Guru


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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100206 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:09 PM

Quote:

The UKMET only updates at 12Z and 0z, the last run is faster than the 0z, it makes landfall at west palm beach 4pm EDT Sunday as a 973mb hurricane (which is what Dorian is right now) , exits near Longboat Key around 5pm on Monday around 984mb, then ends the model run south of St. Joseph's peninsula in the Panhandle as a 963mb hurricane 7am on Wednesday.
Double check the dates if you see anything different than that.




With the unfortunate part being the storm essentially not going over any land before it hits Florida. The SST's are 29-31C depending on which track you take in, neither of which is good news.

I always hate to say it but hitting the D/R and Cuba could have at least knocked some of the growth of this (at the risk of the people, unfortunately, living and at risk in those areas). Staying north, Dorian is going to land hard with a fairly large storm surge...not having much of anything in front of it except for the high over the lower south eastern quadrant of the country.

Do you think the current high is going to stick around to at least put a bit of a block against the storm, Mike?


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100207 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:22 PM

Mike I look forward to your evening model update summary it’s always excellent work

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lunkerhunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100208 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:51 PM

I’m surprised I haven’t heard the A word more… Andrew

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100209 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:04 PM

11 PM is out... another shift south and slower - extremely bad news.
TS winds reaching the coast at 8PM Sunday night. Hurricane force winds out 25 miles up from only 15, still pretty compact at Cat 2 105 MPH


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100210 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:22 PM

It shows it 24 hours later as just holding cat1 above the lake. 75mph wins and just inland. If this played out which is very slim but can happen it would not even be a hurricane then after it moved more.

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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100211 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:05 AM

Mike C is an excellent example of giving us the information we get on this website. If you don't believe in him, don't follow....that's all there is to it. I've been following this website since 2002. He does not make stuff up; he's just giving you the information. If you don't want to follow, you are free to move along. Colleen A. (Moderator).

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #100212 - Fri Aug 30 2019 01:47 AM

Paradoxically, at this time a big slug of dry air has been injested by the storm from the S / SE, up around the eastern side in & up and over the northern sections however the core seems to be resisting this intrusion and continues to organize.

Should be "interesting" once all the dry air this storm is seeming to find is gone.


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100213 - Fri Aug 30 2019 01:56 AM

Quote:

A few people like or liked the ukmet. Well the 18Z models are out and the cluster on tropical tibets has them more north. The Ukmet had it cross the state at the 12Z and exit around Sarasota. Now it has it come across father up and exit around Tampa. So around 40 to 50 mile leap to the north Just for those who are taking the ukmet as a leader this time around.




The CHC is still about 270 miles wide with there being a high in front of Dorian about when it hits the coast or possibly before which may cause it to go north or (shudder) hold it south so it crosses into the gulf. During this time it possibly strengthens to an H4.

My point (not made as an attack) Anybody trying to guess within 40-50 miles on which part of the coast this storm hits, even with a fairly straight W N/W track is throwing some guess in there. It's too soon to know within that range. Doing so is dangerous because it will keep some people home when they might be better off trying to get a room at a motel 8 somewhere inland.

As of right now most of the Florida Panhandle should have/should be hightailing it North.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 01:58 AM)


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100216 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:50 AM

Quote:

Quote:

A few people like or liked the ukmet. Well the 18Z models are out and the cluster on tropical tibets has them more north. The Ukmet had it cross the state at the 12Z and exit around Sarasota. Now it has it come across father up and exit around Tampa. So around 40 to 50 mile leap to the north Just for those who are taking the ukmet as a leader this time around.




The CHC is still about 270 miles wide with there being a high in front of Dorian about when it hits the coast or possibly before which may cause it to go north or (shudder) hold it south so it crosses into the gulf. During this time it possibly strengthens to an H4.

My point (not made as an attack) Anybody trying to guess within 40-50 miles on which part of the coast this storm hits, even with a fairly straight W N/W track is throwing some guess in there. It's too soon to know within that range. Doing so is dangerous because it will keep some people home when they might be better off trying to get a room at a motel 8 somewhere inland.

As of right now most of the Florida Panhandle should have/should be hightailing it North.





Agree nobody knows within 40 to 50 miles of where yet and may not for another day or 2. There are so many different things that can happen it can stall it can speed up and can go right over the model points.

I remember Charlie everyone around Tampa ran to Orlando because it was going to come right up into Tampa bay and they got it worse in Orlando because he turned in down below.

And i was wrong about the ukmet i went only by what i seen posted by a Met no big deal. Good job see what tomorrow brings.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100217 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:51 AM

The 00Z runs of the GFS and Euro do not look significantly different, at least for the GENERAL area of landfall and track thereafter.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100219 - Fri Aug 30 2019 05:09 AM

Am I reading the 5am map right?? Wednesday now for central Florida impact? I’m confused between the warning/cone map and the “time of expected TS force winds” map. I mean, seems like they don’t really coordinate, as of 5am that is. 🤷‍♀️

--------------------
HurricaneSteph
Orlando


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: HurricaneSteph]
      #100221 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:02 AM

Yeah. The track timing and the Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of TS Winds look out of sync. Maybe one of the experts can weigh-in on this issue.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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