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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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Prospero
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100222 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:52 AM

My take on it is that "Earliest Reasonable" times would be if the storm does not slow down. Notice there is a button for "Most Likely" and that is more in sync with the Warning Cone.

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bob3d
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Loc: San Antonio, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100223 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:19 AM

What is the percentage confidence within the white part of the cone that NOAA puts out??? I used to know, but the years have taken their toll on my memory.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bob3d]
      #100224 - Fri Aug 30 2019 08:05 AM

Morning Model run summary, either 6z or 0z depending on the model.

Time to get on with the slow:

6z GFS - landfall on Great Abaco in the Bahamas Late Sunday night, Cat 3, over Freeport in the Bahamas Monday Morning, Cat 3/4 landfall in West Palm Beach Early Tuesday Morning, over Lake Okeechobee Tuesday Afternoon, Lakeland by Wednesday Morning Cat 1 (dirty side over W Orlando) , TS Jacksonville by late Thursday Morning. SLOW SLOW SLOW Then rides coast just offshore, finally clear of NC by midday Saturday. A week long experience for the southeast.

6Z legacy GFS, similar, but landfall As a Cat 4 in Vero Beach Tuesday Morning and rides just inland. Cat 2 Hurricane over Jacksonville Wednesday Morning Exits coast near Charleston, SC Midday Thursday and fhen rides just offshore up to Hatteras, NC By Saturday morning.

0z Euro Cat 3 landfall near Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco in the Bahamas Around noontime Sunday, Cat 3/4 over Freeport in the Bahamas around 3am Monday. Cat 4 landfall in West Palm Beach Overnight Monday into Tuesday (near midnight) Lake Okeechobee around 4pm Tuesday Cat 2/3, Cat 1/2 over Orlando Wednesday morning. TS/Cat 1 over Jacksonville Wednesday Evening. Did I mention slow? The rides the coast just inland Finally exits into the Atlantic by Nags Head, NC Saturday afternoon. Then clips cape cod earl Sunday morning. and one more landfall in Maine later Sunday morning. (May not be tropical at that point)

6Z Icon has landfall near Great Abaco as Cat 3/4 Early Sunday Afternoon, then Cat 4 over Miami proper Tuesday Morning, and ends its run over Ft. Myers on Wednesday morning, a cat 1/2 hurricane

6Z HWRF Clips Abaco on the north side, cat 4, Sunday afternoon. Landfall just south of Vero Beach as a cat 4 Tuesday early morning. Cat 3 over Orlando Tuesday afternoon. Ends run just west of Jacksonville Wednesday morning Cat 1.

6Z HMON Much further south than most, Shoots gap between Abaco and Cat islands late Sunday, Cat 4. Misses the other Islands, Landfall Miami, Cat 4/5 Tuesday morning. Cat 1/TS over Orlando By Wednesday Morning. ends run just west of Palatka, Tropical Storm.

0z UKMET, Over the north part of Great Abaco Cat 3 Sunday evening. Landfall near Boca Raton, Cat 3 Late Overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. Near Venice/Beach or Sarasota as it exits into the Gulf Cat2/3 Early Wednesday morning. Ends run regaining strength in the Gulf well of Tampa and south of Tallahaasee.

Yeah...

Rainfall is pegged on the track routes for Florida, Harvey levels of rain in parts.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bob3d]
      #100225 - Fri Aug 30 2019 08:15 AM

Despite being a Cat 2 this thing is a mess - very elongated, no clear eye, tons of dry air to the south. The ULL is still in front of it which explains the slow motion. It’s was pushed up against that all day yesterday. It’s outflow is trying to get going but there is no defined channel. It has one huge spiral band, I guess the worry is if that can ever wrap around to feed the core things will crank up.

As has been case for most of it trek the small tight core is intact and solid. There is a massive dry line that mirrors the US east coastline with a strong jet pushing E. So it can’t go north and needs to move due west to reach S FL but that darn ULL just doesn’t want to budge. There is huge amount of moisture over FL’s east coast for it to tap into. The 8 AM updates has winds up to 110 but still only 25 miles from the center. TS winds extend out 105 miles so it’s still small.

I guess TS winds on the coast by 8 PM Sunday is possible if it gets organized and the wind field expands. We should getting a better handle on winds once it starts to effect the Bahamas Saturday PM. Given it’s track weather data from the islands will give us a clue on what to expect.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100226 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:12 AM

Just got home from Walmart in South St. Petersburg. I thought I'd beat the rush but it was a ZOO. Size C and D batteries already sold out. I filled up my gas tank and there were lines, but not as bad as I saw last night.

NHC has Tampa Bay with "Earliest Reasonable" tropical storm winds as Sunday at 8PM and "Most Likely" by Monday at 8PM. Most of the models have some kind of Tropical Storm conditions over Tampa Bay at some point in Dorian's time in Florida. The weather forecast for Sunday is a high chance of rain anyway, so I'm starting to prepare as far as shopping today and might batten down the hatches tomorrow if we need to as Sunday might be a messy day weather wise ahead of the Storm.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100227 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:22 AM

Quote:

Rainfall is pegged on the track routes for Florida, Harvey levels of rain in parts.



Potentially biblical amounts east of the center of circulation.
From NWS Melbourne early morning discussion: The 00Z model guidance has come into much better agreement on the track of Hurricane Dorian showing a nearly due west motion across the NW Bahamas Sunday/Sunday night
with slowing forward speed as it approaches the FL east coast Monday/Monday night. Input from the special soundings and the NOAA G-4 upper air sampling likely helped with the better agreement. The strength and orientation of the upper ridge remains pivotal to steering Dorian. A turn to the north or northwest over the FL peninsula is expected around or shortly after landfall as a break in the upper ridge develops.
Tue-Thu...Forecast is highly dependent on Dorian`s track and forward motion. Official NHC forecast shows decreasing storm motion as Dorian approaches the east coast so impacts look like they will persist into the middle of next week. In fact, a prolonged wind and rain event for east central Florida is looking more likely.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 970
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100230 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:32 AM

TV in TPA suggested Tuesday night to Wednesday as the time for most activity. But who knows...that suggestion was based on the 5 day cone.. As correctly stated above, this thing is a mess. The ULL is still influencing the path and make up of the system...That feature was essentially oriented N-S when Dorian moved more northward away from Puerto Rico. Now that system is elongated WNW-ESE. Dorian seems to be following the flow along the top of that system. That system is also preventing Dorian from grabbing any real energized air and has entrained more dry air which is keeping its core size small and the west-SW side weak. Actually there is no major effective source for energized air input into the system..again keeping it very tiny.
Earlier we were cautioned that the most effective time to pay attention to the projections is at the 72 hour mark, and with this system that 72 hour keeps shifting

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100231 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:34 AM

06Z GFS is actually more west in Florida Mike.. I think you saw the 0z run.. cause 06 goes along SR 70 then north thru Tampa Bay along the coast then turns NE around Inverness

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Doombot!
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100234 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:35 AM

It took about an hour flat for the eye to go from incomplete to clear.

I can't help but think back to 'Spaceballs' : "It's MegaMaid, sir! She's gone from suck to blow!!"


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100235 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:00 AM

Quote:

It took about an hour flat for the eye to go from incomplete to clear.




That happened quickly for sure. Outflow is improving, eye wall strengthening, all bad signs.

11AM update about the same, more south, wind field still small. Motion has been more NNW, its moved a full degree W but only a 1/2 degree N so the turn hasn't really started yet. Just a touch east of predicted.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100236 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:00 AM

11 am is out. No major updates.

The 06 and 12Z guidance is also in or almost in. Basically the same as the last runs with most showing a landfall between FLL and the Cape and a long, slow, slog up peninsular Florida.


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100238 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:09 AM

Why do people not like the Navgem Model? It like a few of the others is a global model and it has been consistant with its call of getting close to florida but before landfall it curves. Is it because it does not come on land that nobody shows it in there model roundup? Seems like it should be counted as much as few of the others.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100239 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:24 AM

It's always off basis.. main 3 are #Euro #GFS #UKMet of the gobal... if I had to pick a #4 GFDL

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100240 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:02 PM

.12Z GFS never goes due west.. stays on more of a WNW or 285-290dg path thru 96hrs.A good 60 mile jump to the NE by Monday night on the GFS compared to its 0z and 6z.. instead of landfall near WPB.. it looks like it may hug the coast then stay near Melbourne and the Cape or come inland then head north and exit near Daytona by day 5. We'll have to see what the Euro does

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M.A.
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 104
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100241 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:11 PM

I would tend to agree with your ranking. But as I stated a couple days ago, Navgem was the first to pick up on the genesis and brought it into Florida during that first run. I use the Navgem and CMC to pick up on areas of interest as they tend to be more aggressive on cyclogenesis. After development, the other models tend to be more accurate. I will say the Euro has been horrible compared to others with Dorian. The Navgem, HWRF and CMC brought it into PR or East of PR from the start and were discounted. But, over the long haul, I totally agree with your rankings once again.

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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100242 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:17 PM

Ukmet this time i have it right it is the 12Z i was wrong yesterday with Mike but the 12Z is also way the other way ne now. Not saying it can't go back but everyone was on the ukmet as so good well now it has it just nshore the east coast not the west anymore.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1165
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100243 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:40 PM

UKMet likes to jump around with different data it translates into it's model run... main 1 is the Euro but it was consistant with a sharp turn. I don't think the soundings went into the 0z model runs last night.. or at 6z cause they all almost jumped NE at 12Z...by 60-100 miles depending on the model (not counting the 12Z Euro yet)

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JMII
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100244 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:53 PM

Models should be doing better now that they have data from the Gulfstream Jets - not the ocean current, but the NHC planes. They have started trending back N. The slow down in foward speed is increasing the chances of damage from flooding and a prolonged wind event. However I believe the slow down also allow for a strong turn to the N right at or after landfall. So the creep up the coast scenario is possible.

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OrlandoDan
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Reged: Mon
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100248 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:18 PM

12Z Euro and GFS in GENERAL agreement again. Both have moved north and east.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100249 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:29 PM

Correction. Does the 12Z Euro even make landfall? I dont think it does.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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