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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100252 - Fri Aug 30 2019 03:46 PM

No..but it could come back some towards a landfall and brush along the space coast. More data will go back into the 0z model runs.. we will see if that adjusts them back west more or if the trend stays offshore

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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100255 - Fri Aug 30 2019 05:10 PM

5pm advisory has the forecast track shifted east from the last forecast track. I think the NHC is feeling a little more confidence in the Euro model shift. The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.

--------------------
Londovir


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100257 - Fri Aug 30 2019 05:31 PM

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100259 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:08 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.




I would tend to disagree with that. The eye looks to be going slightly north of the Bahamas giving it at least a hopelly weaker south/west part of the hurricane hit. It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.

The problem is that it's going to be left churning in hot water with nothing to sap it's strength land wise like a Cuba as it slows and approaches Florida. It's hard to imagine it staying less than a strong 3 or a weaker 4 when it hits the coast at full strength but with it projected to slow, the high over Florida is really going to determine if this is a monster or a really bad headache by how long it takes to get smacked north and then northeast, quite possibly bouncing up the coast as it goes North.

Most of the models including the NHC barely have it going inland before it gets corralled along the coast up and back out to sea. It's hard to determine the rain situation because it's still hard to tell where it's going to hit even with it being only a day and a half out. Usually, the cone of possibility is a little tighter at this point but it needs to be underlined that this storm is exceptionally unstable as far as tracking.

Lastly, if you're biting your nails wondering if you should stay or go, I'd tend to say it's better to go. Twenty gallons of gas was the cheapest investment so many never made when Katrina hit places like Gulfport and basically left grass and concrete slabs where houses full of people USED to stand.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 06:14 PM)


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100260 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:09 PM

Question:

Is there an online archive of NHC cone histories and/or spaghetti plot histories for named storms?

I'd love to see how the predictions wriggle this way and that over the life of storms we remember. I know they do shift and surprise at times, and even during a storm's life I can lose track of where they were forecast a day or two before...

If not, what a fabulous idea for a sponsor paid website!



The SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) has been fairly on target from the beginning it appears on this storm, with some fluctuation north and south, but mostly near target.


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Cindi
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100261 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:14 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.




I would tend to disagree with that. The eye looks to be going slightly north of the Bahamas giving it at least a hopelly weaker south/west part of the hurricane hit. It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.

The problem is that it's going to be left churning in hot water with nothing to sap it's strength land wise like a Cuba as it slows and approaches Florida. It's hard to imagine it staying less than a strong 3 or a weaker 4 when it hit the coast at full strength but with it projected to slow, the high over Florida is really going to determine if this is a monster or a reall bad headache by how long it takes to get smacked north and then northeast, quite possibly bouncing up the coast as it goes North.

Most of the models including the NHC barely have it going inland before it gets coralled along the coast up and back out to sea. It's hard to determine the rain situation because it's still hard to tell where it's going to hit even with it being only a day and a half out. Usually, the cone of possibility is a little tighter at this point but it needs to be underlined that this storm is exceptionally unstable as far as tracking.

Lastly, if you're biting your nails wondering if you should stay or go, I'd tend to say it's better to go. Twenty gallons of gas was the cheapest investment so many never made when Katrina hit places like Gulfport and basically left grass and concrete slabs where houses full of people USED to stand.




That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.


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gvl, fl
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Cindi]
      #100263 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:40 PM

Quote:

That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.




Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville


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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100264 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:40 PM

Quote:

Question:

Is there an online archive of NHC cone histories and/or spaghetti plot histories for named storms?






That's a question I'd be curious about as well. I wrote [one of] the recon decoders here on this site years ago, back when I was an amateur coder. Now, I'm a professional web applications developer and I've been tossing around that idea a lot lately as well. I'll have to check around and see if there's any standard endpoint of data out there.

(I also noticed that my recon decoder code has some issues in it and needs to be rewritten at some point, but that's a different story for another day.)

--------------------
Londovir


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StormHound
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Reged: Sun
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100265 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:46 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.




I would tend to disagree with that. The eye looks to be going slightly north of the Bahamas giving it at least a hopelly weaker south/west part of the hurricane hit. It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.

The problem is that it's going to be left churning in hot water with nothing to sap it's strength land wise like a Cuba as it slows and approaches Florida. It's hard to imagine it staying less than a strong 3 or a weaker 4 when it hits the coast at full strength but with it projected to slow, the high over Florida is really going to determine if this is a monster or a really bad headache by how long it takes to get smacked north and then northeast, quite possibly bouncing up the coast as it goes North.

Most of the models including the NHC barely have it going inland before it gets corralled along the coast up and back out to sea. It's hard to determine the rain situation because it's still hard to tell where it's going to hit even with it being only a day and a half out. Usually, the cone of possibility is a little tighter at this point but it needs to be underlined that this storm is exceptionally unstable as far as tracking.

Lastly, if you're biting your nails wondering if you should stay or go, I'd tend to say it's better to go. Twenty gallons of gas was the cheapest investment so many never made when Katrina hit places like Gulfport and basically left grass and concrete slabs where houses full of people USED to stand.




I am going to disagree also. I've rarely felt so little confidence in a forecast, and the fact that the NHC track is a big circle after three days is reflective of that. Dorian is turning west very soon, and will turn north at some point. Where Dorian turns north is a great big question right now. I don't see that being resolved in the next 24 hours.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100266 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:48 PM

Yes https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/ (click on other years, and "Graphics Archive" for the individual storms.

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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100267 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:57 PM

The 12Z FSU model runs are all in agreement with a pronounced northerly turn up or near the east coast of Florida with only one outlier farther west. We’ll see of subsequent runs continue to indicate that. The next 24-48 hours will be significant.

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100268 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:02 PM

Quote:

Yes https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/ (click on other years, and "Graphics Archive" for the individual storms.




Thank you so much, MikeC! I picked Matthew for a test as the name has come up lately as a comparison of Dorian. Funny I remember Matthew well now, but I expected to see something that looked like a Dorian coming across:

Matthew Archives

This is exactly what I was looking for!

Side note: Londovir, there appears to be no shortage of work for good web application developers.


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Doombot!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100269 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:06 PM

I think the 00Z package will really be the "make or break" forecast. If it's still recurving then it's looking a lot better for Florida. It is south and /or west, then this is just the usual flip flopping that happens run to run.

BTW, when does that product come out?


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Cindi
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100271 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:13 PM

Quote:

Quote:

That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.




Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville




Both. From huge fancy brick homes, to huge cinder/concrete block buildings, to wood frame homes. It didn't matter if you lived in the wealther parts of town (Lynn Haven) or Millville, Parker, Springfield area. Huge churches crumbled to the ground. It was hit or miss - some homes flattened, while the house across the street was fine. No rhyme or reason. Some were crushed by trees, but others it was the wind. Before Hurricane Michael, I would have said a concrete block home should be fine. But not now - if she is in the path of the storm she should evacuate if her house is not safe. FYI - most people think Hurricane Michael hit "Panama City Beach" but it actually hit homes on the east side of the bridge - Panama City, Parker, Springfield, Callaway, Lynn Haven, Mexico Beach, etc. Most of the homes in Mexico Beach were whipped clean off their slabs.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100272 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:14 PM

Quote:

Question:

Is there an online archive of NHC cone histories and/or spaghetti plot histories for named storms?

I'd love to see how the predictions wriggle this way and that over the life of storms we remember. I know they do shift and surprise at times, and even during a storm's life I can lose track of where they were forecast a day or two before...

If not, what a fabulous idea for a sponsor paid website!



The SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) has been fairly on target from the beginning it appears on this storm, with some fluctuation north and south, but mostly near target.




You'll find most stuff like Maria, Sandy, Andrew, Katrina and the other horrific storms all have Nat Geo. or History Channel type documentaries. Not sure if theres a site that has someone doing running commentary on all storms that weren't fish spinners. A lot of work tracking more than plotting/forcasting data down unless you could get some of the NHC folks like Avila, Pasch, Berg and so on who would have reems of both paper/computer as well as memory data on every storm. I don't know if those guys are straight hard data guys or if they could color the storms in to show a little more life. That's where you'd find your audience is if you could color some malevolence and a certain spirit or life to storms. Especially the ones that bucked all traditional thought and insight by living through what everyone thought were unasailable conditions like super dry north west conditions to the storm and jetstreams that should have kept things tamer but for whatever reason, the storm just walked through it and did horrible things.

It seems freaking bizarre that we're a decade and a half away from Katrina when Mike, Daniel and a bunch of us sat on here watching Katrina in horror as it just spun spun spun right towards New Orleans/Golf Coast. When we saw on the radar and from people's reports that the worst hit to the east we were almost giddy with happiness that New Orleans didn't take a full on hit but obviously history shows that our happiness was horribly misplaced. I mean we all expected there would be flooding but levee after levee after levee breaching. Pumps which were reporting that they were still working even while underwater pumping water to places that essentially flooded the same water back into the city. It's a godsend that Lake Pontchartrain didn't just take over all of New Orleans making it impossible to rebuild. There was A LOT of discussion about if they should rebuild with a ton of city under 15 feet of water.

I remember us commenting over and over on how good it was that it was slowing from the shallow waters leading into the coast but none of us truly having a flipping clue about how bad storm surge could be and how Katrina might have landed as a 3 but it's storm surge was whipped up to a level 5 storm's strength and that unlike the winds, it didn't really slow down that much. Parts of Golfport getting hit with THIRTY FEET of stacking flood waters that just kept flowing in and if felt like it was never going to flood back out.

Man, that was a loooong night. radar and cellphone calls from people...It's slowing slowing slowing...wait...flooding...more flooding...okay reports of mass flooding...parts of the city were disappearing and the bad news just kept coming and coming and we thought it was bad but the true bad only came the next day when it was reported that parts of Gulfport and Biloxi were just...gone. Not from wind but from water. I still remember that while the cameras were up, people were partying in New Orleans because it was just another hurricane coming in.

Anyways, that's probably the stuff you'd want. You'd need some colorful guys from NHC to fill it all in though.

Obviously Galveston has 200 movies and books written on it being the worst in history.
Maria, Sandy, Katrina and there's a BUNCH of late 1800, earth 1900 storms when they only knew a hurricane was coming when peoples ears started popping and the ocean birds were trying to get off the ocean so fast you could hardly see them. There was a storm (I forget which) that was so huge its storm clouds and wind fields literally filled the entire Gulf of Mexico. There were shots taken from the ISS that were just stunning.


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gvl, fl
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Cindi]
      #100273 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:20 PM

Thanks, Cindi. I think they will make a decision later tomorrow or early Sunday. She just got new hurricane shutters last year, so that should possibly help some, whether she's there in the house or not.

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100274 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:24 PM

Quote:

It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.




He has been on target pretty much all day. Any wobbles that have occurred today had no effect on overall track. The models don't care about wobbles anyway... they are looking at grand scale factors. There are handful of factors influencing Dorian movement, a turn to the N has been predicted for nearly 24 hours (shown first in advisor #23). The question has always been WHEN. With each update the NHC has increased this timing, mainly because Dorain is slowing down. At one point he could have gotten over the west coast of FL, now that seems extremely unlikely.

If you watch the animated NHC cone you can see its been east of forecast most of its run. Today it was behaved better but its currently ever so slightly NE of predicted (again). So is this a trend or a wobble? Time will tell.


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100275 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:25 PM

From Psybe on Katrina:
Quote:

Parts of Golfport getting hit with THIRTY FEET of stacking flood waters that just kept flowing in and if felt like it was never going to flood back out.




Thanks. Hey, is this the highest storm surge I remember from the past 15 to 20 years?

Not sure if this on topic for Dorian, but curious.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Cindi]
      #100276 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:33 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.




Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville









There were some darn stable houses on concrete pads with multiple cars/trucks and so on that were left with just the concrete pads where the houses were built on. Whole families that stayed, retreated up a level when the water started, retreated a level higher or into the attics, either got drowned in the attic or took chainsaws and cut themselves holes to the top of their houses. This was before the structures failed and the houses were swept away and out to sea. Gone. No owners left to even rebuild or lay claim to the ownership of a property.

I'm obviously in Canada and well away from a lot of what the southern USA/Caribbean and so on have to deal with. Still, we get remnants of hurricanes that come up here and rain the hell out of things. Before I started tracking and learning about hurricanes I have to admit I had that sort of "party atmosphere" mentality when it came to storms. Meh, how bad could they be, right? Now I know it can get bad enough that it's just too late. You can't run because the car is under three (of what could be THIRTY) feet of water, power goes and any idea of running that generator to keep pumping your basement out goes to hell because it's flooded out too. The winds turn 2x4's into wooden rockets that fly so fast they impale right through brick walls. The storm doesn't just blow over like a nice spring storm. It's not 20 mins, it's more like two or more hours of horrible winds and rain. The earth saturates from the rain and trees start falling on everything including your house. Tornados spawn so fast you can't even see them on the radar until they're on the ground.

God, there are SO many reasons to run from a hurricane for me now and I've only sat through a couple of weaker H2s on holiday when we couldn't run from the Dominican and Cuba. Sadly though a hurricane to most is just boarding up the windows so your stupid glass won't break. People never learn until it's too late.

NOW, as for the storm, I can't remember a time when the NHC has been this soft on a forecast. I know some are discounting the wobbles Dorian has been doing but they're 10-20 mile wobbles from either the couple of bouts of dry air it's had or from the prevailing iwinds. In any case it has a nice (or nasty depending on how you look at it) low in front of it. Definitely some strengthening although I can't see it even getting near to going through the panhandle and reforming in the Gulf. IT would have had to take a more southerly track and that would have put it over The Domincan and Cuba which would have beat the hell out of the storm.

My concern right now would be flooding. That's one hell of a turn it's going to be taking and you have to wonder how long it's going to sit in place before being pushed up the coast. Won't be like Harvey sat in Texas but from almost every forecast it's going to be going from basically W to N or N by N/E.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 07:53 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100277 - Fri Aug 30 2019 08:22 PM

The 18Z runs of the GFS, GFS-old, HMON, NAVGEM are all trending more eastward indicating that Dorian may remain offshore of FL. That would be good news except for the immediate coast due to surge and surf action.

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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