Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Extreme flooding underway in parts of SE TX from now TD Imelda. Jerry continues to strengthen. #96L in Carib another possible flood-maker
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Dorian) , Major: 344 (Michael) Florida - Any: 344 (Michael) Major: 344 (Michael)
40.0N 58.0W
Wind: 100MPH
Pres: 965mb
Moving:
Nne at 20 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
18.4N 58.7W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 981mb
Moving:
Wnw at 16 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Pending... Storm 11Click for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)
BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 449
Loc: Georgia Tech
Why I Have Doubts About the GFS Model [Re: MichaelA]
      #100279 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:13 PM

Looking at the 08/30/2019 - 18Z GFS model I am not sold. There's a few particular issues I have with the model run.


  • Initialization of Dorian is weaker than the actual storm. GFS has consistently initialized weaker than the actual storm strength. I suspect that the weaker pressures lead to a weaker upper level flow which could strengthen high pressure, slowing any erosion from low pressures breaking down the high.
  • Upper level flows seem to have Dorian moving north into the high pressure ridge before the upper level flow would induce northerly movement.
  • The cold front seems really strong and digging awfully deep for early September. I know, just because it's early doesn't mean you can't have a stronger cold front. But I would really like to see the low pressure and associated front form as strong as GFS seems to predict.


I'm just a wee Meteorologist/Climatologist type, and Tropical cyclones are not my focus. But this is what I am seeing that make me doubt the GFS run.

Thoughts?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheQueensBarge
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100280 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:15 PM

High Point will be ok regarding surge; you're not going to get any. However, you may lose the roof and windows and trees may come down and it's all over. I strongly suggest your mom make a short vacation over towards south Orlando (Rosen resort always makes it availabe to refugees) or to Tampa. A mild inconvenience is far perferable to death.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheBeach
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Biloxi, MS
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100281 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:20 PM

PLEASE ask your mother to leave! I lived in Biloxi during Katrina, 7 miles north of the Coast, but near the Biloxi River.My house was built up and I had the highest property in the area, so everyone parked vehicles, boats, riding mowers,etc. in my yard. I only left because of the wind, never expecting that my home would flood. We came back to what looked like no damage,though all the vehicles were up against a fence. We assumed from wind. But when we entered our home, it had flooded! So PLEASE advise ANYONE to be safe rather than sorry!

It looks like Dorian could stall near the coastline, pushing water up rivers for hours or days. You can't out swim that.

--------------------
Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100282 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:24 PM

Several observations:

1. Dorian is starting to take on the look of an annual hurricane.

2. The eye is large (in relation to the storm) and bone dry as observed in the water vapor

3. For about the past 3 hours, movement appears to be due west, slightly ahead of and to the south of the forecast track.

My big question is if this will translate into a deeper westerly penatration than the models are starting to suggest.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Why I Have Doubts About the GFS Model [Re: Bloodstar]
      #100283 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:25 PM

Quote:

Looking at the 08/30/2019 - 18Z GFS model I am not sold. There's a few particular issues I have with the model run.


  • Initialization of Dorian is weaker than the actual storm. GFS has consistently initialized weaker than the actual storm strength. I suspect that the weaker pressures lead to a weaker upper level flow which could strengthen high pressure, slowing any erosion from low pressures breaking down the high.
  • Upper level flows seem to have Dorian moving north into the high pressure ridge before the upper level flow would induce northerly movement.
  • The cold front seems really strong and digging awfully deep for early September. I know, just because it's early doesn't mean you can't have a stronger cold front. But I would really like to see the low pressure and associated front form as strong as GFS seems to predict.


I'm just a wee Meteorologist/Climatologist type, and Tropical cyclones are not my focus. But this is what I am seeing that make me doubt the GFS run.

Thoughts?




Dorian just went to H4 from the HH's. At some point, it's going to start barrelling forward just because it can. With the slowing over those waters it's going to get stronger.

I see that NHC has it barely on the land which may make sense given how slow it's going to slow down to. Still, so much uncertainty with the storm hitting basically in a day and a half. Their cone of uncertainly is roughly 150 miles wide and the hurricane is all but there.

WEIRD storm.


Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 09:34 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gvl, fl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Gainesville, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: TheQueensBarge]
      #100284 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:26 PM

Quote:

High Point will be ok regarding surge; you're not going to get any. However, you may lose the roof and windows and trees may come down and it's all over. I strongly suggest your mom make a short vacation over towards south Orlando (Rosen resort always makes it availabe to refugees) or to Tampa. A mild inconvenience is far perferable to death.




They are thinking about coming to Gainesville and staying in a hotel. Our dogs don't get along and they both have medical issues, not to mention my house is in a neighborhood with countless trees. I suggested Orlando already but they seemed to think it would also be a dangerous area. I'll mention your suggestion. Gainesville is a 3-hour drive each way and it doesn't sound very sensible or practical to me.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100285 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:27 PM

Quote:

For about the past 3 hours, movement appears to be due west, slightly ahead of and to the south of the forecast track.




Not south of forecast but clear W motion vs NW before.

Just watched Levi - Tropical Tidbits video - to say the situation is complex would be an understatement, way too many possible scenarios are still on the table.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100287 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:35 PM

Quote:

Quote:

For about the past 3 hours, movement appears to be due west, slightly ahead of and to the south of the forecast track.




Not south of forecast but clear W motion vs NW before.

Just watched Levi - Tropical Tidbits video - to say the situation is complex would be an understatement, way too many possible scenarios are still on the table.




WOW, Cnn is going hardcore on this. Saying that its possible it might hit a 5. They're basing it on the fact it just dropped 20mb in the space of a couple hours which is pretty solid evidence. That's a CRAZY drop. From H1 to H4 in 24 hours. If it does get over land it's expected to take DAYS to clear florida as it bounces up against that high with the possibility of offshore storms firing and adding a bit more energy to whats spinning overland.

Damn. The 11:00 will hopefully have some better news.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 127
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100289 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:03 PM

It is important for everyone in Florida continue to monitor this, do not buy into a east shift just yet, we can only hope that's the case but the situation is so fragile any slight deviations in upper level pattern with respects to troughs across the northern us and ridges nearby can have huge impacts in what maybe a historical event.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100290 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:04 PM

There have been times when hurricane winds increase at landfall. It’s almost as if it’s giving all it has. Andrew in ‘92 was deemed a Cat 4, but was upgraded 10 years later as a Cat 5.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheQueensBarge
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100291 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:09 PM

Probably more dangerous to drive to Gainesville than to south Orlando. Going to _some_ hotel in the Orlando west area would be far preferable to staying home. Just tell her to get on SR-528 and stop at the first hotel in the vicinity of Orlando International. Do NOT stay home. That's the dirty nasty side of the storm. And do it sooner rather than later.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #100292 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:12 PM

I remember hearing many years ago, maybe on the Weather Channel, that a large hurricane can make its own weather patterns that can guide its path. I'm sure it was a statement that was taken out of context or has no value, but I still remember it. Is there any truth to that?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Littlebit
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 47
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100293 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:26 PM

I remember hearing the same thing and was wondering about that with Dorian. Is it that a large hurricane meaning one that has more coverage, or a large hurricane meaning one that has more strength can do this? Or is that not the case?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100294 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:36 PM

Quote:

I remember hearing many years ago, maybe on the Weather Channel, that a large hurricane can make its own weather patterns that can guide its path. I'm sure it was a statement that was taken out of context or has no value, but I still remember it. Is there any truth to that?




Large storms CAN make their own weather however usually it's larger sized storms with a larger windfields and more leading storms that feed the storm more energy to keep it going despite other pressures against it.

It needs to be said that even 1 1/2 days out from landfall, that the NHC can only tell that it might hit Florida, might even make it to the Gulf of Mexico (most of us can pretty honestly say it won't make it that far despite the crazy), might walk all the way into the mainland or it might dance up the Eastern Seaboard making messes or not.

This is EXCEPTIONALLY bizarre because for almost two decades, the NHC forecasting tool has been pretty much the best way to guestimate where a storm is going. At this point, a lot of the other models are basically broken or just forecasting a path down the middle of all the bobbles it's had.

I know people like MikeC would know but I've never seen such a resilient little storm bounce its way from unfavourable areas into small favourable ones and then back north so many times. It's been going 10-30 miles north and then 10-30 miles south for days now.

Since the storm just dropped 20mb in pressure, it forced the storm up yet higher into an H4 and as it gets stronger(and it should considering the favorable conditions), it will be able to resist more and more types of weather that fights against it.

There are news places that are saying this could hit Florida at an H5 or at least a strong H4 so IF you are in Florida, you should be going North about as fast as the law allows you. Staying in place anywhere in the Florida panhandle and expecting this storm not to flatten your house with you in it is folly.

At some point...either over water (we hope), it's going to stop going west and be forced north. It quite probably is going to make some sort of landfall though. The problem with a sudden 90-degree turn is it doesn't just turn on a dime and fly north. No, it'll take its sweet time turning and whatever is under wherever it turns is going to get flooded perhaps like they've never seen before.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100295 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:38 PM

Quote:

Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville




The roof might blow off. Having solid walls is nice, but a ceiling is important too.

It may likely that hurricane straps have been installed since the 70's as it makes the insurance more affordable. And you can be sure the roof has been redone by now. But at 140 mpg I wouldn't stay there no matter what. (Maybe I would being a storm sicko for a death defying adventure, but it would be crazy, and maybe deadly.)

Orlando might not be a good place to stay, too close to a possible hit. Imagine being stuck in Orlando with no power. I have friends who left Pinellas County to go to Orlando to be away from Charlie and ended up having a traumatic horrible experience when back here it was mostly calm and relaxed.

Have your mom come to Clearwater Beach and stay on the beach. Looks like we are clear of the worst part of the storm and if you call, I bet you get a good deal. The national and international negative attention is not doing Florida vacation rental businesses any favors. But we'd love to host east coast Dorian escapees!

Beach Resort Condos



Edited by Prospero (Fri Aug 30 2019 10:39 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Littlebit]
      #100296 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:42 PM

Quote:

I remember hearing the same thing and was wondering about that with Dorian. Is it that a large hurricane meaning one that has more coverage, or a large hurricane meaning one that has more strength can do this? Or is that not the case?




Large is generally used to describe it's physical size. Dorian is not a normal H4 which should have much larger storms around it, feeding it.

Hurricanes are just lesser windstorms with lots of warm water creating convection up above the normal clouds into thunderheads which turn into large storms which turn into hurricane food. All of this usually to the North West of them as most of our storms go West/West-North West.

Go check out a good doppler radar video of a hurricane and it'll show you all the thunderstorms firing up all around it before they're all drawn into the hurricane as food.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100297 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:00 PM

Quote:

Have your mom come to Clearwater Beach and stay on the beach. Looks like we are clear of the worst part of the storm and if you call, I bet you get a good deal.



Of course I am saying that based on the last few hours of guesses. But the odds appear to be much better here than the East Coast or Orlando. And it is a great beach with some excellent dining and awesome sunsets.

But we are not 100% out of any risks until Dorian is far away from Florida.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100298 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:02 PM

11PM is out - small shift E but the models are seeing a weak spot in the ridge... so due west then hard right turn to the north.

Threat to Keys going down, threat to Northern FL and the GA/SC coast going up. S FL, central and Space Coast about the same, could be on your doorstep on Labor Day. Slow approach then stall before heading off. Wind field about the same = 30 miles from small, compact core center of Cat 4 level hurricane force winds, then 105 miles out of TS winds. Staying a bit offshore or north keeps the worse winds out to sea but slow motion means the coastal areas get pounded for nearly a full day. TS winds on the coast Monday AM so plan accordingly.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100299 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:03 PM

I want to caution folks with model runs, we don't have a trend yet (as far as direction) we do have a speed trend, though, slow. The shifts east on many of the models are welcome, but the UK and GFS ensemble set still indicates a lot of potential for it to go the other way. It just gets much more difficult and subtle when the storm slows down. The fact the minor tweaks made by the ensembles show different tracks like that highlights it even more, especially since a lot differ than the deterministic run.

Bahamas (Grand Bahama and Abaco) in particular are going to get Hard by Dorian.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100300 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:18 PM

Quote:

I want to caution folks with model runs, we don't have a trend yet (as far as direction) we do have a speed trend, though, slow. The shifts east on many of the models are welcome, but the UK and GFS ensemble set still indicates a lot of potential for it to go the other way. It just gets much more difficult and subtle when the storm slows down.

Bahamas (Grand Bahama and Abaco) in particular are going to get Hard by Dorian.




I would add that the more unstable a storm is, the larger the buffer zone you should apply to this. As Mike said this is not a normal storm in how it's behaving directionally. You can only say a storm is getting stronger so many times before it becomes pointless to even say that it's 5kt stronger. Directionally however there is an incredible wide area of the Florida panhandle and perhaps more northern parts as well for rain. The Bahamas are probably going to take a direct hit but that is about all that seems to be set in stone.

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT...for those who don't know 160 KT is 184miles an hour.

I'm a little surprised by the barometer reading. 948 seems high for an H4.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 11:19 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 15 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 92260

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center