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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1931
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 90L Lounge (W Gulf)
      #100052 - Fri Aug 23 2019 03:43 PM



A very moist and convectively active trough of low pressure now in the western Gulf of Mexico is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite and microwave imagery, plus surface reports from ships, oil rigs and buoys, all suggest that surface low pressure may be trying to form.

Conditions are somewhat favorable for significant development, and the system is already very close to land. Given trends the potential for a TD/TD-like or even a wet Tropical Storm is reasonable enough to start a Lounge considering the potential impacts regardless of further development.

At present, NHC has not placed odds on this system, but this could definitely change later today, and I would encourage anyone who might be concerned to check back here as well as with their local NWS offices and preferred media outlets.

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 24 2019 12:52 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1931
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 90L Lounge (W Gulf) [Re: cieldumort]
      #100056 - Sat Aug 24 2019 03:00 PM



NHC began tracking the area of Low pressure in the northwest Gulf as Invest 90L today.

As of 1700z, 90L was analyzed at 29.5N 93.8W, or about 12 miles south of the Tx/La border, with winds of about 20 KTS and a minimum pressure of 1012 hPa. This initialization appears to have been where the northernmost lobe (see image above) was located at that time. Since then, this lobe has moved inland (shown in image above).

With the northernmost and primary surface lobe center now inland, but with a large area of broader vorticity still located offshore, it remains to be seen if the persistent area of deep convection and occasional pressure falls still noted offshore sustain, and possibly recenter the primary area of interest.

Upper-levels support and even favor potential redevelopment further south over very warm water
(image below from CIMSS)

Low shear still offshore (green) vs moderate shear near the coast and just inland (red) and higher divergence (yellow with values 20 and above), may work with that preexisting broad vorticty at the surface, as well as the enhanced surface convergence (blue).

In summary, although the lobe NHC began tracking midday has already pushed inland, troffiness remains offshore in a favorable regime, and regardless of development, SE-TX/LA and points offshore will likely continue to be very wet and occasionally blustery this weekend, with thunderstorms, some strong to severe, and waterspouts all a risk.


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