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General Discussion >> 2019 Storm Forum

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: bob3d]
      #100621 - Tue Sep 03 2019 07:28 PM

Currently getting the first good taste of Dorian from an outer band. Torrential rain with wind N/NE 30+ mph (est) gusting to 40+ mph.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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thatmoody
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100627 - Tue Sep 03 2019 08:50 PM

Melbourne again (8:48 pm). A little wind and rain from some bands coming through. The dogs don't mind going out, and the front yard has a little standing water.

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: thatmoody]
      #100628 - Tue Sep 03 2019 08:57 PM

That band that went through my location (a few miles south of Daytona Bch) is training onto the coast between Daytona Bch and Ormond, pounding Weather Channel's Reynolds Wolf ATM: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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thatmoody
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100629 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:02 PM

Just talked to a friend in Cocoa Beach - steady wind of about 30 there, and pretty gusty. Power is still on out there.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: thatmoody]
      #100632 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:14 PM

First legit band recently happened in Orlando, only got a gust to 25, but the rain rate was around 2"/hr.

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jastrowx
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: jastrowx]
      #100633 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:32 PM

Ormond Beach
About 8 PM we got a brief but very heavy rainfall with estimated gusts to 45 mph. Some palm fronts came down; one hit the front of the house and startled me.Since then mainly light rain with occasional thunder, winds 20-30 mph.
Lights have been flickering at times. total rain today, through 8:30 PM = 0.86"

--------------------
Joe


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: jastrowx]
      #100634 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:47 PM

Tonight is the night we've been waiting for since last week.

All in all, not too bad. But even a few hours without power is a nightmare in Florida this time of year.

Sleep with CPAPs? You'll sure miss that electricity at night. Battery operated fans will help keep you cool enough, maybe, but almost impossible to get real sleep without that pressurized air blowing into your face.

We appear to be free of any bands on the west coast tonight. Whew!

Strapping on the CPAP very soon and will check FLhurricane by 4:30 am when we get up...


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Prospero]
      #100636 - Tue Sep 03 2019 10:17 PM

All these rain bands seem to rain themselves out just before reaching me in NW Broward.
Got a grand total of only 0.6" of rain over the last two days, I got 4X that alone on Thursday evening before all this began.
Pressure is up to 1007.1 (where normal is 1010-1014)

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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thatmoody
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Prospero]
      #100637 - Tue Sep 03 2019 10:38 PM

Quote:

Tonight is the night we've been waiting for since last week.

All in all, not too bad. But even a few hours without power is a nightmare in Florida this time of year.

Sleep with CPAPs? You'll sure miss that electricity at night. Battery operated fans will help keep you cool enough, maybe, but almost impossible to get real sleep without that pressurized air blowing into your face.

We appear to be free of any bands on the west coast tonight. Whew!

Strapping on the CPAP very soon and will check FLhurricane by 4:30 am when we get up...




I also sleep with a CPAP and I was worried that the power would go out in the middle of the night and I'd wake up suffocating (I wear a full-face mask). The wind was pretty good earlier but the new impact windows we got after the house was trashed in Irma are keeping the noise down so much I can't really tell.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: jastrowx]
      #100643 - Wed Sep 04 2019 07:21 AM

In central coastal Volusia, currently 77F, wind NNW 25 gusting to 35+ with light to occ moderate rain. Emptied 1.21" from the gauge at 7 am. My heaviest rain came yesterday evening from the first out band. Highest winds (est. NE 35 G55) came in off the Atlantic around 2:45 am this morning from a band shortly after Dorian's center of circulation had cleared the Cape's latitude.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100644 - Wed Sep 04 2019 07:57 AM

Cocoa Beach and Brevard County in general skated thru the storm with essentially no damage. Fewer than 2000 customers in Brevard lost power. 1.75 inches rain, max gust 43 mph three-quarters mile from ocean. Banana River is up a bit, but not over most docks. All in all, a better outcome than any of us expected.

OT: Oliver White's GoFundMe effort for his staff at Abaco Lodge has raised over $114,000 in less than 24 hours, a good guy doing a great thing for some really wonderful people. Bahamians and especially those on Grand Bahama and the Abacos are going to need massive assistance in the days ahead. We all should help.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Rubber Ducky]
      #100645 - Wed Sep 04 2019 10:20 AM

Quote:

OT: Oliver White's GoFundMe effort for his staff at Abaco Lodge has raised over $114,000 in less than 24 hours, a good guy doing a great thing for some really wonderful people. Bahamians and especially those on Grand Bahama and the Abacos are going to need massive assistance in the days ahead. We all should help.




Yes, our good fortune along Florida's east coast to dodge (by a little more than 100 miles) historical Dorian's worst-case scenario in the northern Bahamas should encourage us to send all resources that survivors of the catastrophic hurricane desperately need now, and for many months to come.

10am here (central coastal Volusia: 78F, light rain, wind WNW 20 G30.
When checking the dune area where I planted sea oat and RR vine earlier this summer, observed that the pre-dawn high tide hit the sea wall in places, and the wrack line on the DeMotte ramp (just south of Dunlawton Ave Cswy ramp) indicated last night's Dorian-driven high tide cycle peaked 3-4' above normal (Matthew was 5-6' above normal).
Walking down to the foot of the bridge to see how out how high the Halifax River is.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100648 - Wed Sep 04 2019 05:53 PM

Since about noon today we've had a steady 27 to 29 mph breeze with a few gusts to 33 mph. Nothing impressive, but steady and consistent. It will likely not become any stronger, but definitely noticeable for we on the beach.

Clearwater Beach Web Cam HD Live Streaming

If you look at the cam right now, you will see only a few people on the beach. What is bad for tourism, is good for the handful of people who are on the beach!

The surf has kicked up, and we'll get some rollers over a few days even when the wind dies down. Surfers will enjoy the waves, and they are fun to watch for everyone.

No rain in the forecast. Typically an early September tropical system marks the end of the summer thunderstorm season. We may not see rain until another tropical system comes by or the late Fall cold fronts start coming through in November.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 486
Loc: Tampa
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Prospero]
      #100649 - Wed Sep 04 2019 05:59 PM

We were in Redington Beach for the entire Labor Day Weekend. While were grateful for no traffic, very low occupancy of the beach, decent weather, we really were heartbroken for the local businesses. And of course, nobody in the group could keep their eyes, hearts and thoughts off Dorian for any extended period of time.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 216
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #100651 - Wed Sep 04 2019 08:10 PM

Quote:

We were in Redington Beach for the entire Labor Day Weekend. While were grateful for no traffic, very low occupancy of the beach, decent weather, we really were heartbroken for the local businesses. And of course, nobody in the group could keep their eyes, hearts and thoughts off Dorian for any extended period of time.




Florida paid a huge price for last week's media "Florida is going to be hit with a Cat 3" when it was still five days out or more. Especially the west coast when we were out of the cone a few days ago. Granted I got caught up in the mass-hysteria on Friday morning when I couldn't find a bag of ice, C batteries, a place to get a tank of propane, and was one of the last to get gas at my favorite gas station. But by nightfall I started to realize it was panic, not what I usually use for storm planning. UGH

By then how many vacation visitors had cancelled, some of them losing their entire investment if on VRBO or TripAdvisor with random rental owners. Wow. Horrible.


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kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Prospero]
      #100654 - Thu Sep 05 2019 01:16 AM

I agree! Like so many we were transfixed to the Weather Channel. “It’s going up the spine of Florida!” Evacuate! Evacuate! This was reported 5 days out! I have family & friends in my home town St.Cloud. My daughter is visiting me here on the MS Gulf Coast and the grandkids are in St. Cloud. We started rushing them to board the windows, get the generator ready, etc., etc. We also were in panic mode. Well, no more! Common sense is needed with weather reporting on hurricanes. I called my friend in St. Cloud and asked if she was boarding her windows. “No”, she replied. “Never have.” Her family has been there since the ‘30’s.

When a storm pops up alert folks to get their ducks in a row. Keep a full tank, have a few 5 gallon cans filled with gas (use it for your lawn mower later) cash on hand, but no alarms 5 days out! Don’t cause a run on everything. It’s not cheap to evacuate. This occurs almost every year. Well, next time there are going to be a lot of folks who won’t pay heed after what occurred this year. Funds spent needlessly, businesses losing summer income. Yes, Florida paid a huge price...and so did a lot of people.

Actually people in Florida should start their hurricane kit in June, picking up water, canned goods, etc., generator ready if needed, boards fitted, cut, and marked for each window, holes drilled for each tap con which are left permanently installed so the boards are easily fastened with wing nuts, etc. Store the boards in a dry place so they can be used if necessary.....like 3 days out!


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GeorgeN
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: kspkap]
      #100655 - Thu Sep 05 2019 12:14 PM

Unbiased and accurate storm reporting is a topic that I often discuss with family and friends. With so much weather info available, it seems like everyone with a computer wants to "help with the forecast". When you have so many people trying to get attention, you end up with statements like this:
"Dorian is about to hit Florida hard. The most urgently worded hurricane update
The storm is projected, at this time, to make landfall as a Category 4 or higher hurricane somewhere between Melbourne and Ft. Lauderdale."
https://community.windy.com/topic/9449/d...ricane-update/2

Granted this statement may have been posted with good intentions, but I think it inspired more panic than preparation. At the time, the storm was high over the Dominican Republic and hundreds of miles from Florida. Any landfall in Florida was pure extrapolation at this point, but it did not stop the author from making a statement that would surely gain public attention.

I think it's time to bring some honesty into the NHC forecast maps. Yes, the models were accurate, but only within a max of 2-3 days. The longer extrapolations seem to always point directly to Florida. The NHC makes it clear that this trajectory is just an extrapolation from models which are inaccurate past a certain point. But, people tend to jump at these projections and then make their own conclusions, and then make public statements.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: GeorgeN]
      #100656 - Thu Sep 05 2019 12:18 PM

Disagree. IMHO, NHC performed/is performing marvelously on DORIAN. Its job is to use science to produce information. It does so increasingly well year after year. How others use that information (e.g., altering it with a Sharpie) is outside NHC control.

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GeorgeN
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Rubber Ducky]
      #100657 - Thu Sep 05 2019 12:51 PM

Quote:

Disagree. IMHO, NHC performed/is performing marvelously on DORIAN. Its job is to use science to produce information. It does so increasingly well year after year. How others use that information (e.g., altering it with a Sharpie) is outside NHC control.




I'm not saying the NHC is not performing, I'm saying their info is being used incorrectly. Places like Weather Channel use this info and then twist it into sensational journalism. If they would say "this is the NHC chart, and anything in dotted gray is speculative" then it would cause less panic. But they won't because saying anything besides "Florida is going to be toast" won't get them in the spotlight.

The NHC is getting very good. Especially with their new models and incorporating the European ensemble models. The forecast of such a strong storm coming to a direct stop, then turning sharply North was something I personally didn't believe. But it stopped, and turned just like the models predicted and the NHC was right to trust them.

In terms of people using the information incorrectly, I believe they should be held legally accountable. If you make statements that cause personal or financial distress, then that could be used against you in court. I'm not implying that amateurs like ourselves be accountable but people like the author of my posted statement should be.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL

Edited by GeorgeN (Thu Sep 05 2019 01:03 PM)


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kspkap
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 25
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area [Re: Rubber Ducky]
      #100663 - Fri Sep 06 2019 07:10 PM

The “Sharpie” remark was not needed. As it turned out the NOAA backed the user of the Sharpie. There were reports Dorian could impact Alabama. Just like reports of Dorian “going up the spine of Florida”.

Edit: I failed to mention “a strong possibility Dorian will cross over Florida into the Gulf. People of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle should be on alert.” Guess what states are in between....Mississippi and Alabama! The Sharpie was correct!

Edited by kspkap (Fri Sep 06 2019 07:18 PM)


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